Tuesday, July 15, 2014

The 2014 MLB All-Star Game

In honor of the first half of the 2014 MLB campaign coming to an end, I would like to dedicate this next post to evaluating the players performances thus far.  First off, I want to iterate the fact that the Oakland Athletics have the best record in the MLB right now with a 59-36 record.  As we all are aware from the movie "Moneyball", Billy Beane and his assistants heavily utilize statistical analysis when constructing their roster.  The Athletics also have the sixth lowest payroll in the MLB, with roughly an $83.5 million payout (Deadspin.com).  With this being said, the Oakland Athletics typically have a very low payroll and somehow they seem to be perennial contenders in the playoffs.   Hopefully, the preceding facts can sway some of you skeptics who believe that statistical analysis is not important in baseball.

In my analysis, I want to distinguish those players who may have been snubbed and not selected to a 2014 ASG roster.  I will be statistically evaluating position players only.  However, I would like to start off by sharing my general opinion on a pitcher, who I believe got cheated severely.  This pitcher is Sonny Gray of the Oakland Athletics.  The fact that Gray is not on the American League roster is an utter outrage.  I comprehend the fact that the Athletics already have the most representatives at the game and the league wants representatives from every team, but statistically speaking, Gray is one of the best pitchers in the game right now.  Sonny Gray boasts a 10-3 record and 2.79 ERA, along with having amassed 108 strikeouts already (MLB.com).  He should of at least been one of the players chosen to replace an injured or unavailable pitcher.

Now, on to the evaluation of the position players.  To evaluate the players, I will use my statistics that I created and explicated in previous posts.  These statistics are the Individual Offensive Rating (IOR) and the Offensive Team Contribution Rating (OTCR).  The data and statistics which I will be using for the analysis is from the 2014 MLB season only.  I also will only be considering those players who have over 200 at-bats in order to avoid any large statistical discrepancies.  I am taking the top 100 players in terms of IOR, they are ranked in descending order.


IOR/OTCR Rank
IOR Rank
Name
IOR
OTCR
IOR/OTCR
38
1
Troy Tulowitzki
0.613
0.619
0.990
27
2
Andrew McCutchen
0.608
0.600
1.014
34
3
Jose Bautista
0.596
0.594
1.003
23
4
Giancarlo Stanton
0.589
0.576
1.022
64
5
Mike Trout
0.588
0.632
0.931
41
6
Victor Martinez#
0.573
0.586
0.977
5
7
Coco Crisp#
0.571
0.529
1.080
44
8
Paul Goldschmidt
0.560
0.576
0.972
50
9
Corey Dickerson*
0.545
0.568
0.960
24
10
Anthony Rizzo*
0.539
0.529
1.019
61
11
Adam LaRoche*
0.535
0.573
0.935
49
12
David Ortiz*
0.534
0.556
0.961
11
13
Joey Votto*
0.532
0.504
1.056
3
14
Jose Altuve
0.526
0.453
1.161
19
15
Adam Dunn*
0.525
0.509
1.030
57
16
Yasiel Puig
0.522
0.553
0.943
89
17
Devin Mesoraco
0.522
0.597
0.874
81
18
Edwin Encarnacion
0.518
0.581
0.891
35
19
Mike Napoli
0.517
0.516
1.001
17
20
Seth Smith*
0.516
0.499
1.032
8
21
Brian Dozier
0.514
0.484
1.061
1
22
Eric Young#
0.512
0.400
1.282
55
23
Hanley Ramirez
0.512
0.537
0.953
75
24
Robinson Cano*
0.510
0.563
0.906
2
25
Dee Gordon*
0.510
0.425
1.200
79
26
Nelson Cruz
0.508
0.569
0.893
84
27
Lonnie Chisenhall*
0.508
0.571
0.888
40
28
Carlos Gomez
0.504
0.513
0.983
85
29
Michael Brantley*
0.504
0.570
0.885
90
30
Jose Abreu
0.503
0.578
0.870
47
31
George Springer
0.500
0.519
0.964
13
32
Rajai Davis
0.498
0.478
1.042
52
33
Charlie Blackmon*
0.497
0.519
0.959
33
34
Curtis Granderson*
0.495
0.494
1.003
6
35
Billy Hamilton#
0.492
0.457
1.077
67
36
Freddie Freeman*
0.492
0.532
0.925
16
37
Shin-Soo Choo*
0.491
0.474
1.036
72
38
Mark Teixeira#
0.490
0.536
0.914
69
39
Matthew Joyce*
0.490
0.533
0.919
100
40
Miguel Cabrera
0.490
0.606
0.808
45
41
Todd Frazier
0.489
0.505
0.968
10
42
Dexter Fowler#
0.488
0.461
1.057
21
43
Jacoby Ellsbury*
0.487
0.476
1.025
92
44
Brandon Moss*
0.486
0.561
0.867
32
45
Brett Gardner*
0.485
0.481
1.009
66
46
Jonathan Lucroy
0.482
0.520
0.927
93
47
Adrian Beltre
0.482
0.558
0.865
9
48
Ruben Tejada
0.482
0.455
1.058
25
49
Carlos Santana#
0.482
0.473
1.019
39
50
Matt Carpenter*
0.481
0.487
0.987
74
51
Lucas Duda*
0.480
0.530
0.907
73
52
Justin Upton
0.480
0.527
0.911
62
53
Matt Holliday
0.478
0.512
0.934
26
54
Christian Yelich*
0.476
0.467
1.018
12
55
Jimmy Rollins#
0.474
0.453
1.048
86
56
Miguel Montero*
0.472
0.534
0.884
7
57
Carlos Ruiz
0.470
0.437
1.075
78
58
Jayson Werth
0.470
0.523
0.899
36
59
Drew Stubbs
0.465
0.466
0.997
15
60
Leonys Martin*
0.464
0.447
1.039
60
61
Chris Davis*
0.463
0.494
0.936
4
62
Desmond Jennings
0.462
0.426
1.084
94
63
Ryan Braun
0.461
0.534
0.863
63
64
Scooter Gennett*
0.461
0.495
0.931
51
65
Kole Calhoun*
0.461
0.480
0.959
98
66
Casey McGehee
0.460
0.544
0.845
87
67
Evan Gattis
0.460
0.521
0.883
82
68
Albert Pujols
0.458
0.515
0.890
14
69
Ben Zobrist#
0.458
0.440
1.041
97
70
Kyle Seager*
0.457
0.541
0.846
20
71
Angel Pagan#
0.456
0.443
1.030
54
72
Ike Davis*
0.455
0.477
0.954
77
73
Anthony Rendon
0.454
0.505
0.900
71
74
Chase Utley*
0.454
0.495
0.915
42
75
Evan Longoria
0.453
0.464
0.976
53
76
Pedro Alvarez*
0.451
0.472
0.955
28
77
Jason Heyward*
0.449
0.443
1.013
70
78
Alex Gordon*
0.449
0.490
0.918
31
79
Hunter Pence
0.449
0.444
1.010
29
80
DJ LeMahieu
0.448
0.442
1.013
48
81
Brock Holt*
0.447
0.464
0.964
65
82
John Jaso*
0.447
0.481
0.928
95
83
Conor Gillaspie*
0.446
0.524
0.850
58
84
Jay Bruce*
0.444
0.471
0.943
76
85
Neil Walker#
0.444
0.492
0.903
59
86
Brandon Crawford*
0.443
0.472
0.938
43
87
Alex Avila*
0.442
0.454
0.975
18
88
Starling Marte
0.442
0.428
1.032
37
89
Mark Reynolds
0.440
0.442
0.996
46
90
Jarrod Saltalamacchia#
0.438
0.454
0.965
88
91
Buster Posey
0.438
0.501
0.874
80
92
David Wright
0.438
0.491
0.892
22
93
Jason Kipnis*
0.437
0.427
1.024
83
94
Lorenzo Cain
0.437
0.491
0.889
96
95
Aramis Ramirez
0.436
0.515
0.846
68
96
Howie Kendrick
0.436
0.471
0.924
99
97
Kurt Suzuki
0.435
0.520
0.838
30
98
Alcides Escobar
0.434
0.428
1.012
56
99
Yadier Molina
0.432
0.457
0.947
91
100
Matt Adams*
0.432
0.498
0.868

A very good IOR/OTCR ratio would be anything above 1.000.  An above average would be anything over 0.900.   The higher the ratio, the more well rounded and self-sufficient the player is.  Reiterating my statements from my prior posts, the higher the IOR/OTCR ratio the more of an offensive instigator the player is.  Where as a lower ratio could indicate that a player is more of a complimentary asset to a line-up.  With all that being said, let me begin with the analysis.  The two players who got cheated out of an all-star roster spot the most are Coco Crisp and Billy Hamilton.  They both have excellent IOR/OTCR ratio ratings and their IORs are also very good by themselves.  I believe that these two players are game changers and can ignite an offensive rally.  Coco Crisp has had some inconsistencies with his starts this season, due to minor injuries.  These lost starts, cost him at-bats, which probably was a major factor in him not being selected as an all-star.  However, there is no excuse for Billy Hamilton not to be an all-star.  After a slow start to the season, Hamilton really heated up as of lately and has been putting up very good offensive figures.  The only problem with Hamilton is a lack of patience at the plate and on the base paths.  Hamilton does not walk as much as he should and strikes out a good amount.  With world-class speed like Hamilton has, he needs to focus more on contact and OBP in order to transcend his game.  Hamilton also needs to be more selective with the pitches and counts he steals on because he does get caught stealing a significant amount.

Other players, who I believe got snubbed, have there names highlighted in yellow (Hamilton and Crisp are also highlighted).  These players include Corey Dickerson of the Rockies, David Ortiz of the Red Sox, Jacoby Ellsbury of the Yankees, Scooter Gennett of the Brewers, and Brock Holt of the Red Sox.  I personally recommend keeping an eye on both Holt and Dickerson for the second half.  They both have put forth incredible numbers thus far.

No comments:

Post a Comment