The Importance of Game 1

I can honestly say that the 2014 MLB Postseason thus far has most definitely elicited much emotion not only from myself, but also the majority of fans. For we saw the MLB record for longest postseason game get shattered by the 18-inning marathon between the Giants and Nationals.  We have seen both the American League and National League top seeds, the LA Angels and the Washington Nationals, respectively, get eliminated.  As a matter of fact, this postseason has been very favorable towards all of the lower seeds in each series, with the exception of the Detroit Tigers who were the subject of elimination via the Baltimore Orioles.  Thus far, the Royals and the Orioles have advanced to the American League championship, meanwhile the Giants and the Cardinals have advanced to the National League championship.  All of these teams won the 1st games of their respective division series, en route to their eventual series victories.  Winning the 1st game of a postseason series, at first glance, appears to be imperative for a teams procession past that round.  Thus, with the consideration of the importance of winning the 1st game within a playoff series, I dedicate this next post to evaluating that precise concept.

	Gm 1 Victories by series Winners	Possible Series
2013	6	7	85.7%
2012	4	7	57.1%
2011	5	7	71.4%
2010	6	7	85.7%
2009	6	7	85.7%
2008	6	7	85.7%
2007	7	7	100.0%

*  Note that the series which are utilized in the calculations above do not incorporate one-game wild card match-ups.  It is obvious that whoever wins these types of games will advance to the next round.  Thus, including them would only skew both the data and overall probability.

The statistics, of which I have provided above, examine all playoff series since 2007.  This data significantly corroborates the belief that winning the first game of a playoff series greatly enhances a teams probability of winning.  For in every single year, with the exception of 2012, at least five of seven playoff series were won by teams that won game one of the respective series.  Overall, with examining the given data from the preceding seven postseasons, teams that win the first game of a series have, on average, an 81.6% chance of eventually winning the series.

So what exactly does this percentage convey and how does it pertain to this year?  Well, as I iterated in the first paragraph, during this 2014 postseason, every team that has won the first game of a series so far, has proceeded to win the entire series.  Thus, that gives a perfect 4-for-4 efficiency.  Statistically speaking, with the acknowledgement of the 81.6% success rate I derived from the data of the previous seven postseasons, there projects to be one instance in the remaining three series in which the winner of a game one will not progress to win the series.  We will see in due time if this statistical projection holds, or if a statistical anomaly is in the works.