The 2014 MLB World Series

This MLB postseason has most certainly proven itself to be a time of upsets.  We have seen both the American and National Leagues lowest seeds, the Royals and the Giants respectively, persevere to the World Series, through much adversity.  This World Series berth solidifies the third trip to the Fall Classic for the Giants, in as many postseasons for them.  In addition, the Giants will be vying for their third World Series ring during that precise time span.  If postseason success in recent years is your basis for projecting a winner for the World Series this year, then the San Francisco Giants are your team.  However, the concepts of success and efficiency during this postseason are in favor of the Royals.  The Royals have set an MLB Postseason record with 8 consecutive victories thus far, leading to a perfect 8-0 start.  I had a feeling that that Royals would make a strong postseason push, take a look at the post The Legend of the 2014 Kansas City Royals. Similarly to the Giants, the Royals won the World Series during their last postseason trip.  Although, this victory for the Royals occurred back in 1985, when a current front office member, George Brett, was their franchise player.  In light of the commencement of the 2014 MLB World Series, I will dedicate this post to assessing a statistical comparison of these two teams, in order to project a World Series victor.

The statistics I will be implementing for my analyses are extracted from MLB.com and they only take into consideration the current postseason statistics.

Offense:  

	AVG	SB	Runs	HR	OBP
San Francisco	0.259	3	41	5	.313
Kansas City	0.244	13	42	8	.331

Defense:

	Field. %	Errors	CS %
San Francisco	0.992	3	25
Kansas City	0.991	3	25

Starting Pitching:

	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	AVG
San Francisco	2.4	0.99	63.2	51	0.207
Kansas City	3.8	1.2	45	33	0.232

 Relief Pitching:

	ERA	WHIP	Saves	K	AVG
San Francisco	1.78	0.88	5	30	0.164
Kansas City	1.8	1	6	36	0.179

As you can discern from viewing the charts above, the two teams have relatively similar statistics thus far into postseason.  The largest statistical discrepancies can been seen within the Stolen Bases and Starting Pitching categories.  For every category above (Offense, Defense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching), I highlighted the team with the statistical advantage in green.  For each individual aspect, within the categories, the team with the greater statistic, has their number bolded.

Headlined by a dominant MadBum, the performances of the San Francisco Giants starting pitchers this postseason have greatly eclipsed those of their World Series counterparts on the Kansas City Royals.  Baseball analysts and avid fans alike have been boasting about the stalwart bullpen of the Royals for quite some time now.  This bullpen incorporates the talents of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland, who have effectively proved their values in the late innings.  However, despite not receiving the same level of praise, the San Francisco Giants bullpen actually has the statistical advantage.  The Kansas City Royals have outright recorded the better offensive statistics throughout the playoffs thus far.  Terrific, yet unexpected, power numbers along with their speed on the base paths have proved to be too much to handle, even for the American Leagues best.  The last category, team defense, verifies just how statistically similar these teams are.  The only aspect in which the two teams vary is fielding percentage, which the Giants edge the Royals in by .001.  Due to the infinitesimal differences for this category, I consider the teams even.  However, if I was to select a team that has a better defense, then I am inclined to opt the Royals.  The Royals have more Gold Glove talent that stems from Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and several other notable contenders.

I believe that (statistically verified too, for the most part) the Royals have the offensive and defensive advantages, meanwhile the Giants have the pitching edge.  In terms of coaching, I believe that the Giants have the upper-hand.  Bruce Bochy has amassed 3 pennants and 2 World Series rings during his tenure, while Ned Yost is in the midst of only his first postseason appearance.  Everything considered thus far, the Giants and Royals are neck-and-neck on paper.  Although, I am inclined to favor the Giants as the winners for this 2014 World Series.  The majority of the Giants players have numerable World Series visits under their belts, meaning that they know how to handle themselves at this stage of the postseason.  Also, I believe that Buster Posey will be able to encumber the Royals base stealing propensities.  Posey has a 32% career caught stealing percentage, meanwhile none of the three teams, whom the Royals have played this postseason, have had catchers with caught stealing percentages remotely close to that.  The last key factor for the series is actually tonights game.  I believe that Madison Bumgarner should be able to deal the Royals their first loss of this postseason.  Being undefeated, the Royals have not had to face the task of being resilient after a loss.  With the pressure from a first loss, the Royals postseason very well could escalate to a brief end.  However, if the Royals are able to muster up enough runs to beat MadBum tonight, then they might have a fighting chance at a World Series ring.

Final 2014 MLB Offensive Values

In light of the conclusion of the 2014 MLB regular season, I have decided to calculate and provide the final offensive value player rankings for this 2014 campaign.  These rankings are according to the Offensive Production Rating (OPR) of the players.  For explanations on both how to calculate OPR and what exactly OPR measures, please refer to the post Updated MLB Offensive Values (By: M. Lessard).  The other two statistics in the chart, IOR and OTCR (Individual Offensive Rating and Offensive Team Contribution Rating, respectively), are both explicated and derived in earlier posts as well.  IOR and OTCR are the two main statistical components utilized when calculating OPR.  The immediately proceeding chart ranks only the players who had enough At-Bats in order to qualify for this seasons batting title.

Rank	Name	IOR	OTCR	OPR
1	Giancarlo Stanton	0.511	0.307	0.711
2	Victor Martinez#	0.507	0.306	0.701
3	Jose Bautista	0.480	0.314	0.657
4	Mike Trout	0.460	0.335	0.647
5	Andrew McCutchen	0.489	0.275	0.630
6	Jose Abreu	0.469	0.307	0.629
7	Michael Brantley*	0.454	0.290	0.581
8	Edwin Encarnacion	0.432	0.321	0.579
9	Anthony Rizzo*	0.458	0.278	0.573
10	Miguel Cabrera	0.423	0.323	0.567
11	David Ortiz*	0.450	0.281	0.563
12	Jose Altuve	0.475	0.212	0.542
13	Adam LaRoche*	0.427	0.295	0.538
14	Carlos Gomez	0.444	0.267	0.537
15	Jayson Werth	0.439	0.270	0.531
16	Adrian Beltre	0.441	0.262	0.527
17	Robinson Cano*	0.448	0.244	0.520
18	Lucas Duda*	0.418	0.285	0.512
19	Nelson Cruz	0.410	0.295	0.510
20	Adrian Gonzalez*	0.391	0.318	0.508
21	Anthony Rendon	0.408	0.294	0.507
22	Hanley Ramirez	0.426	0.266	0.504
23	Yasiel Puig	0.428	0.256	0.498
24	Matt Kemp	0.406	0.287	0.494
25	Justin Upton	0.401	0.292	0.492
26	Starling Marte	0.435	0.237	0.490
27	Buster Posey	0.408	0.279	0.489
28	Brian Dozier	0.407	0.274	0.482
29	Josh Donaldson	0.403	0.281	0.482
30	Todd Frazier	0.414	0.261	0.478
31	Matt Holliday	0.412	0.262	0.478
32	Justin Morneau*	0.402	0.276	0.476
33	Freddie Freeman*	0.421	0.246	0.475
34	Albert Pujols	0.387	0.292	0.470
35	Charlie Blackmon*	0.412	0.255	0.469
36	Carlos Santana#	0.421	0.236	0.467
37	Jacoby Ellsbury*	0.422	0.233	0.465
38	Alex Gordon*	0.407	0.257	0.464
39	Chris Carter	0.392	0.280	0.463
40	Brandon Moss*	0.391	0.266	0.447
41	Neil Walker#	0.389	0.268	0.446
42	Dee Gordon*	0.426	0.203	0.446
43	Christian Yelich*	0.411	0.232	0.445
44	Josh Harrison	0.404	0.242	0.443
45	Melky Cabrera#	0.390	0.259	0.438
46	Kyle Seager*	0.387	0.261	0.436
47	Ian Desmond	0.387	0.258	0.433
48	Lorenzo Cain	0.408	0.221	0.431
49	Yoenis Cespedes	0.350	0.304	0.430
50	Ryan Braun	0.381	0.262	0.428
51	Kole Calhoun*	0.365	0.283	0.427
52	Hunter Pence	0.383	0.258	0.427
53	Matt Carpenter*	0.395	0.238	0.426
54	Adam Jones	0.365	0.280	0.423
55	Jimmy Rollins#	0.399	0.228	0.423
56	Brett Gardner*	0.381	0.258	0.423
57	Howie Kendrick	0.389	0.245	0.422
58	Jonathan Lucroy	0.403	0.220	0.422
59	Chris Davis*	0.370	0.272	0.421
60	Dexter Fowler#	0.416	0.194	0.421
61	Chase Utley*	0.389	0.242	0.420
62	Evan Longoria	0.374	0.263	0.418
63	Joe Mauer*	0.398	0.226	0.418
64	Denard Span*	0.409	0.205	0.418
65	Jason Heyward*	0.404	0.208	0.412
66	Adam Dunn*	0.391	0.229	0.411
67	Coco Crisp#	0.392	0.228	0.411
68	Jose Reyes#	0.388	0.231	0.407
69	Yan Gomes	0.359	0.272	0.406
70	Torii Hunter	0.355	0.275	0.403
71	Marcell Ozuna	0.361	0.265	0.401
72	Seth Smith*	0.397	0.205	0.400
73	Ben Zobrist#	0.390	0.219	0.400
74	Ian Kinsler	0.351	0.275	0.399
75	Billy Hamilton#	0.390	0.218	0.398
76	Trevor Plouffe	0.359	0.265	0.398
77	Lonnie Chisenhall*	0.375	0.240	0.397
78	Adam Eaton*	0.390	0.214	0.396
79	Marlon Byrd	0.367	0.250	0.394
80	Leonys Martin*	0.391	0.201	0.386
81	Ben Revere*	0.404	0.171	0.385
82	Luis Valbuena*	0.378	0.221	0.384
83	Jhonny Peralta	0.377	0.223	0.384
84	Brandon Crawford*	0.367	0.239	0.384
85	Ryan Howard*	0.356	0.255	0.384
86	Starlin Castro	0.378	0.220	0.382
87	Mark Teixeira#	0.364	0.240	0.381
88	Erick Aybar#	0.361	0.243	0.379
89	Khris Davis	0.346	0.264	0.379
90	Alexei Ramirez	0.359	0.245	0.378
91	Jay Bruce*	0.345	0.262	0.376
92	Nori Aoki*	0.377	0.209	0.372
93	Daniel Murphy*	0.371	0.220	0.371
94	Curtis Granderson*	0.370	0.220	0.371
95	Matt Adams*	0.362	0.231	0.369
96	Alcides Escobar	0.369	0.219	0.369
97	Pablo Sandoval#	0.359	0.232	0.365
98	Aramis Ramirez	0.367	0.218	0.365
99	Miguel Montero*	0.371	0.211	0.365
100	Shin-Soo Choo*	0.376	0.193	0.357
101	Casey McGehee	0.370	0.201	0.355
102	Dustin Pedroia	0.360	0.215	0.351
103	Conor Gillaspie*	0.358	0.217	0.350
104	Asdrubal Cabrera#	0.349	0.231	0.350
105	Alex Rios	0.357	0.217	0.349
106	Nick Markakis*	0.373	0.187	0.349
107	Chase Headley#	0.367	0.198	0.348
108	Brian McCann*	0.331	0.253	0.347
109	David Wright	0.360	0.208	0.346
111	Dustin Ackley*	0.334	0.247	0.345
112	Jordy Mercer	0.353	0.218	0.344
113	James Loney*	0.359	0.206	0.343
114	Yangervis Solarte#	0.355	0.211	0.341
115	Desmond Jennings	0.360	0.203	0.341
116	Alejandro De Aza*	0.364	0.195	0.341
117	Dioner Navarro#	0.348	0.221	0.340
118	Eric Hosmer*	0.349	0.216	0.337
119	Jason Kipnis*	0.364	0.189	0.337
120	Martin Prado	0.347	0.216	0.335
121	Kurt Suzuki	0.350	0.211	0.334
122	David Freese	0.342	0.221	0.332
123	DJ LeMahieu	0.351	0.204	0.330
124	Billy Butler	0.343	0.217	0.330
125	Garrett Jones*	0.344	0.212	0.326
126	Elvis Andrus	0.352	0.188	0.318
127	Jed Lowrie#	0.339	0.207	0.316
128	Gerardo Parra*	0.345	0.195	0.314
129	Austin Jackson	0.345	0.195	0.314
130	Nick Castellanos	0.333	0.212	0.312
131	Domonic Brown*	0.326	0.223	0.312
132	B.J. Upton	0.349	0.184	0.311
133	Dayan Viciedo	0.323	0.224	0.309
134	Omar Infante	0.323	0.223	0.308
135	Salvador Perez	0.322	0.215	0.299
136	Jean Segura	0.338	0.187	0.298
137	J.J. Hardy	0.325	0.202	0.293
138	Aaron Hill	0.312	0.220	0.292
139	Xander Bogaerts	0.322	0.194	0.282
140	Jason Castro*	0.316	0.201	0.281
141	Yunel Escobar	0.342	0.147	0.278
142	Adeiny Hechavarria	0.328	0.169	0.272
143	Derek Jeter	0.322	0.172	0.266
144	Chris Johnson	0.321	0.172	0.265
145	Andrelton Simmons	0.311	0.163	0.246
146	Allen Craig	0.299	0.176	0.241
147	Matt Dominguez	0.285	0.193	0.237
148	Zack Cozart	0.291	0.168	0.226

As one can see, the chart above is topped with many familiar and expected offensive power names.  Giancarlo Stanton tops the list with a very laudable 0.711 OPR.  However, despite the vast amount of perennial offensive powers atop the list, there are both newcomers and resilient veterans who meandered their way in.  These "on-the-rise" and "comeback" players have their names highlighted in green.  From my analysis of this list, I will make some projections for 2014 award winners:

AL MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (Clayton Kershaw is a very strong contender for this award. However, I am only considering offensive players for the sake of this post.)

AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds (I am 99.9% sure it will be Mets pitcher, Jake deGrom, who wins the award, but I just wanted to provide an offensive prediction.)

The next list I am providing, includes the hitters who did not qualify for their respective leagues batting title, due to a lack of at-bats.  I sought to provide some recognition for players who either might have been either hurt or called up mid-season.  Thus, the proceeding rankings were constructed in the same manner as the first chart, according to OPR.

Rank	Name	IOR	OTCR	OPR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	0.501	0.341	0.736
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.472	0.307	0.634
3	Corey Dickerson*	0.444	0.322	0.601
4	Michael Cuddyer	0.439	0.312	0.580
5	Justin Turner	0.447	0.283	0.560
6	Devin Mesoraco	0.427	0.311	0.559
7	J.D. Martinez	0.429	0.290	0.536
8	Steve Pearce	0.444	0.264	0.533
9	Scott Van Slyke	0.447	0.256	0.531
10	Russell Martin	0.443	0.259	0.527
11	Carl Crawford*	0.422	0.286	0.520
12	George Springer	0.420	0.284	0.515
13	Michael McKenry	0.443	0.240	0.507
14	Drew Stubbs	0.422	0.271	0.504
15	Jarrod Dyson*	0.445	0.224	0.496
16	Kirk Nieuwenhuis*	0.423	0.262	0.495
17	Mookie Betts	0.423	0.249	0.481
18	Danny Santana#	0.414	0.263	0.481
19	Michael Saunders*	0.388	0.297	0.477
20	Matt Wieters#	0.384	0.295	0.468
21	A.J. Pollock	0.425	0.230	0.467
22	Prince Fielder*	0.438	0.202	0.466
23	Jordan Schafer*	0.433	0.204	0.459
24	Adam Lind*	0.409	0.245	0.455
25	Rajai Davis	0.407	0.245	0.451
26	Josh Willingham	0.398	0.255	0.448
27	Chris Iannetta	0.408	0.239	0.446
28	Joey Votto*	0.423	0.210	0.445
29	Mike Napoli	0.416	0.214	0.438
30	Gregory Polanco*	0.375	0.279	0.437
31	Kennys Vargas#	0.363	0.291	0.433
32	Kristopher Negron	0.399	0.234	0.428
33	Ryan Zimmerman	0.363	0.283	0.423
34	Nolan Arenado	0.373	0.268	0.421
35	Rickie Weeks	0.395	0.231	0.419
36	Eric Young#	0.396	0.228	0.417
37	Derek Norris	0.391	0.233	0.415
38	Jon Jay*	0.395	0.224	0.413
39	David Lough*	0.360	0.274	0.410
40	Avisail Garcia	0.368	0.263	0.410
41	Brandon Belt*	0.379	0.247	0.409
42	Josh Hamilton*	0.378	0.244	0.405
43	Chris Coghlan*	0.391	0.222	0.405
44	Derek Dietrich*	0.355	0.273	0.402
45	Pedro Alvarez*	0.384	0.229	0.400
46	Mark Trumbo	0.345	0.285	0.400
47	Craig Gentry	0.399	0.202	0.400
48	Evan Gattis	0.379	0.237	0.400
49	Josh Reddick*	0.348	0.278	0.397
50	John Jaso*	0.372	0.244	0.396
51	Justin Ruggiano	0.368	0.248	0.394
52	Angel Pagan#	0.390	0.211	0.393
53	Matthew Joyce*	0.379	0.227	0.391
54	Ike Davis*	0.377	0.230	0.390
55	Oswaldo Arcia*	0.361	0.254	0.389
56	Scooter Gennett*	0.357	0.255	0.385
57	Mike Morse	0.369	0.234	0.383
58	Carlos Gonzalez*	0.349	0.263	0.382
59	Travis Snider*	0.382	0.212	0.381
60	Sam Fuld*	0.383	0.209	0.381
61	Yasmani Grandal#	0.370	0.230	0.380
62	Bryce Harper*	0.390	0.195	0.380
63	Gregor Blanco*	0.378	0.216	0.380
64	Kolten Wong*	0.370	0.231	0.380
65	Wilin Rosario	0.351	0.256	0.378
66	Delmon Young	0.373	0.224	0.378
67	Juan Francisco*	0.341	0.269	0.377
68	Martin Maldonado	0.357	0.246	0.376
69	Francisco Cervelli	0.389	0.191	0.376
70	Dan Robertson	0.360	0.239	0.374
71	Brandon Guyer	0.357	0.241	0.372
72	Juan Uribe	0.364	0.228	0.369
73	Sean Rodriguez	0.309	0.297	0.368
74	Adam Rosales	0.370	0.215	0.367
75	Rene Rivera	0.359	0.231	0.364
76	Logan Morrison*	0.362	0.222	0.360
77	Juan Lagares	0.358	0.226	0.359
78	David Peralta*	0.359	0.224	0.359
79	Manny Machado	0.367	0.209	0.357
80	Travis Ishikawa*	0.345	0.244	0.356
81	Robbie Grossman#	0.372	0.199	0.356
82	Matt den Dekker*	0.385	0.172	0.356
83	Stephen Vogt*	0.362	0.216	0.356
84	John Mayberry	0.351	0.232	0.354
85	Josmil Pinto	0.350	0.234	0.354
86	Mark Reynolds	0.356	0.224	0.353
87	Chris Young	0.355	0.224	0.353
88	C.J. Cron	0.332	0.257	0.352
89	Brock Holt*	0.360	0.213	0.350
90	Brett Lawrie	0.344	0.238	0.350
91	Jeff Baker	0.329	0.258	0.349
92	Chris Taylor	0.377	0.179	0.349
93	Colby Rasmus*	0.351	0.226	0.349
94	Jonny Gomes	0.352	0.224	0.348
95	Ryan Rua	0.349	0.229	0.348
96	Daniel Nava#	0.368	0.196	0.347
97	Josh Rutledge	0.336	0.246	0.347
98	Kevin Kiermaier*	0.357	0.212	0.345
99	Emilio Bonifacio#	0.373	0.181	0.344
100	Ruben Tejada	0.379	0.167	0.344

 Once again, after analyzing the list, I took the liberty of highlighting both some promising young players and undervalued players.  Atop the list sits Troy Tulowitzki, with an MLB leading 0.736 OPR.  If it was not for his inclination to get hurt, Tulowitzki would be a perennial contender for the NL MVP award.  As you can see, one of the highlighted names on the list is Jarrod Dyson.  I have both mentioned and analyzed him several times prior to this post and each time I always iterate how incredibly undervalued he is.  He has been an integral part of the (now 2014 American League Champions) Kansas City Royals the entire season.