After some deliberation with Adam, we both agreed upon the fact that the MLB All-Star Game does have a popularity contest aura to it. This popularity influence may not be felt by the typical baseball fan, for the starting line-ups are picked by the popular vote of the fans. We acknowledge the concept that the popular players are the ones people want to see and will in turn pay more to watch play. However, this is a so-called "all-star game" and we believe that the best players at each position, for their respective leagues, should receive the right to start. Adam and I, both felt as if the starting line-ups for both leagues were not indicative of the respective leagues best players at each position. Thus, we dedicate this next post to analyzing and discussing the "actual" starting line-ups that should have been implemented during the 2014 MLB All-Star Game.
Seeing as how the All-Star Game is the collection of both the American and National Leagues top individual performers, I believe that my statistic of Individual Offensive Rating (IOR) will provide the best analysis. To briefly recap, the IOR takes into account all individual aspects of a hitters game with emphasis on the batters power, plate discipline, speed, and contact abilities. For a more in-depth description of IOR, please refer to the post that is titled "The Inaugural Post". With the implementation of IOR for the analysis, we will be able to discern which players truly are the best individual performers and rely the least on their teammates for success.
First, I will begin by analyzing the players from the American League in order to construct the "actual" 2014 American League, ASG line-up. The following chart is the top 50 players in the American League in terms of IOR, ranked in descending order.
Name
|
Tm
|
AB
|
IOR
|
Jose Bautista
|
TOR
|
325
|
0.582
|
Mike Trout
|
LAA
|
357
|
0.560
|
Victor Martinez#
|
DET
|
314
|
0.545
|
Coco Crisp#
|
OAK
|
261
|
0.544
|
Derek Norris
|
OAK
|
204
|
0.529
|
Mike Napoli
|
BOS
|
274
|
0.526
|
Edwin Encarnacion
|
TOR
|
328
|
0.518
|
David Ortiz*
|
BOS
|
345
|
0.516
|
Jose Altuve
|
HOU
|
397
|
0.511
|
Adam Dunn*
|
CHW
|
267
|
0.509
|
Michael Brantley*
|
CLE
|
365
|
0.504
|
Robinson Cano*
|
SEA
|
364
|
0.500
|
Brian Dozier
|
MIN
|
367
|
0.493
|
Lonnie Chisenhall*
|
CLE
|
272
|
0.493
|
George Springer
|
HOU
|
295
|
0.492
|
Jose Abreu
|
CHW
|
330
|
0.491
|
Nelson Cruz
|
BAL
|
365
|
0.490
|
Dexter Fowler#
|
HOU
|
285
|
0.488
|
Brandon Moss*
|
OAK
|
328
|
0.482
|
Carlos Santana#
|
CLE
|
310
|
0.481
|
Adrian Beltre
|
TEX
|
316
|
0.478
|
Rajai Davis
|
DET
|
260
|
0.477
|
Jacoby Ellsbury*
|
NYY
|
363
|
0.477
|
Brett Gardner*
|
NYY
|
348
|
0.471
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
DET
|
355
|
0.470
|
Mark Teixeira#
|
NYY
|
268
|
0.470
|
J.D. Martinez
|
DET
|
200
|
0.470
|
Shin-Soo Choo*
|
TEX
|
330
|
0.470
|
Matthew Joyce*
|
TBR
|
263
|
0.456
|
Chris Davis*
|
BAL
|
289
|
0.453
|
Ben Zobrist#
|
TBR
|
326
|
0.451
|
Jason Kipnis*
|
CLE
|
275
|
0.447
|
Alex Gordon*
|
KCR
|
332
|
0.446
|
Alex Avila*
|
DET
|
232
|
0.444
|
Kyle Seager*
|
SEA
|
353
|
0.442
|
Desmond Jennings
|
TBR
|
344
|
0.442
|
Albert Pujols
|
LAA
|
383
|
0.439
|
Evan Longoria
|
TBR
|
381
|
0.438
|
John Jaso*
|
OAK
|
231
|
0.437
|
Howie Kendrick
|
LAA
|
374
|
0.436
|
Brock Holt*
|
BOS
|
265
|
0.434
|
Leonys Martin*
|
TEX
|
302
|
0.434
|
Kole Calhoun*
|
LAA
|
229
|
0.432
|
Nick Markakis*
|
BAL
|
401
|
0.426
|
Conor Gillaspie*
|
CHW
|
265
|
0.426
|
Josh Donaldson
|
OAK
|
373
|
0.424
|
Melky Cabrera#
|
TOR
|
399
|
0.424
|
Lorenzo Cain
|
KCR
|
266
|
0.421
|
Jose Reyes#
|
TOR
|
343
|
0.420
|
Joe Mauer*
|
MIN
|
303
|
0.416
|
For the most part, when piecing together the AL All-Star Line-up, I used the top player, in terms of IOR, for the reasons that I iterated above. To enforce the validity and effectiveness of the IOR statistic, take a look at the list. The player with the best IOR in the American League is Jose Bautista, who also happened to be the leading vote-getter for the All-Star Game. There is one last point I would like to discuss before I proceed to naming the "actual" starters, this being the topic of Derek Jeter. As I am sure everyone knows by know, Derek Jeter is concluding an undoubtedly Hall of Fame caliber career, this year. He was elected through popular vote to start in the All-Star Game, despite not being the statistically best shortshop this year. I understand that this was more of a notion precipitated through honor and respect than performance. I would keep Jeter on the ASG roster for this matter, however I would have started the outright leading performer at the position. I without any doubt tip my cap to Derek Jeter for his laudable career.
With that being said, the players that I selected for the 2014 AL All-Star starting line-up are as follows (These players names are highlighted in orange above):
Catcher- Derek Norris, Oakland Athletics (Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals/ Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles)
First Baseman- Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays (Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers)
Second Baseman- Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners)
Third Baseman- Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics
Shortstop- Jose Reyes, Toronto Blue Jays (Derek Jeter, New York Yankees)
Left Field- Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians (Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels)
Center Field- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles)
Right Field- Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Designated Hitter- Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers (Nelson Cruz, Baltimore Orioles)
Note: If the starter was someone different than my suggestion, their name is in parentheses. Seven of the nine hitters elected to this starting line-up are the outright leaders in IOR, for their respective positions. This includes Mike Trout at Center Field because he actually is a Center Fielder, not a Left Fielder like he was during the ASG. Although, without any doubt Trout could play all outfield positions very well. The two players selected, who are not the leaders in IOR for their position, are Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson.
Edwin Encarnacion has an IOR of 0.518, which is just 0.008 less than Mike Napoli's, the First Baseman for the Boston Red Sox, IOR. Despite not having the best IOR rating at his position, I went ahead and gave Encarnacion the nod because he has had significantly more at-bats on the season and ranks better in terms of power numbers in comparison with Napoli. A very close second place for the spot is Jose Abreu. Abreu has had a breakout season thus far and has accumulated incredible offensive statistics to back it up.
Josh Donaldson actually ranks third, in terms of IOR, for American League Third Basemen. Ranked above him are Kyle Seager of the Seattle Mariners and Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays. The reason I did not pick Longoria is due to his performance. Longoria is a top tier Third Baseman and is expected to put up significant offensive numbers. However, thus far for the season, despite a relatively good IOR, Longoria has not played up to his potential. My final debate between Donaldson and Seager was a rather complex one. They both have put up relatively similar numbers and have been fully playing up to their capabilities. Seager has a better average, but Donaldson has the better power numbers. Third Base is typically a power hitting player position. Thus, I ended up giving Donaldson the edge because of his greater power display.
The last player in the line-up I wish to discuss is Jose Reyes. As you may know, Reyes was not even on the AL All-Star game roster, despite having the best overall individual offensive statistics. The 2014 season has been a struggle for American League shortstops offensively, however Reyes does have the highest IOR, so I gave him the honor of being the starter.
The batting order that I would implement for these players is as follows:
1) Jose Altuve 2B
2) Mike Trout CF
3) Jose Bautista RF
4) Edwin Encarnacion 1B
5) Victor Martinez DH
6) Michael Brantley LF
7) Josh Donaldson 3B
8) Derek Norris C
9) Jose Reyes SS
Lastly, I would like to talk about the choice for the Starting Pitcher. I very much approve of John Farrell's pick for Felix Hernandez to be the Starting Pitcher for the American League. Hernandez has earned a 4.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is the highest in the American League and only second to Adam Wainwright's 5.1 (In Terms of Pitcher WAR). Also, Hernandez has amassed an 11-2 while accumulating a dazzling ERA of 2.02 along with 163 strikeouts. These statistics are nearly impossible to refute.
I now turn over the reigns for the "actual" National League line-up and starting pitcher analyses to Adam.
For my first contribution, I get the pleasure of breaking down the All-Star voting for the NL. Despite all of the complex saber metrics now at the casual fan’s disposal I’m choosing to use WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. If you need a break down, a quick google search can summarize it quite well but all you need to know is that WAR unlike most other statistics uses both offensive and defensive metrics to summarize a player’s impact on a team’s record. Ultimately any player over 3 is a good player; anybody under 2 is a journeyman. Surprisingly per WAR there are 6 positions staying the same as the voting, with 4 needing some minor tweaks.
The one exception is that for the Designated Hitter I will be using Isolated Power (ISOP) which is exactly what it says. SLG-AVG=ISOP, simple, to the point, and will effectively give us a view of which players are most likely to give us the long shot we need out of our DH
Let’s get started:
1. CF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Let’s first admire McCutchen’s stat lines, which paint a pretty clear picture:
.320/.418/.566 (avg./OBP./SLG.)
17/57/61 (HR/R/RBI)
You can’t really argue against this pick, Cutch has been highly productive (especially over the last month) and the next two centerfielders worth mentioning are Carlos Gomez and Ben Revere, neither of which are slugging on par with McCutchen or producing as many RBI, Runs, or long balls. A consummate professional, McCutchen is the only centerfielder that’s in the same league as Mike Trout of the AL. Trout is a 5.6 WAR player, which is the equivalent of Tulowitzki (To be discussed later). McCutchen is hands down the right “All-Star” this year, and arguably the favorite for the MVP at this point in the NL. Beyond the eye test, the fact his batting average is .18 higher than the next centerfielder and his WAR is 4.7 vs. Gomez’ 3.5, it’s abundantly clear that his popularity with the fans is only eclipsed by his skill on the field.
2. RF Yasiel Puig, Dodgers ->RF Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
This is a slightly harder point to make than the above. Stanton can be found below in the DH slot but for my purposes I’m prioritizing fielding positions and will fill the DL slot last, though it will appear in the same batting order as the NL line up was presented this past week.
Stanton currently sits at 4.7 WAR, whereas the next player at this position (Jason Heyward of the Braves) is 4.3 and Puig at 3.4. Stanton is slashing .295/.394/.551 (Puig .308/.396/.519) which keeps him in the top 4 for each statistic. Here I’d like to place the emphasis on the power, .551 slugging is a full .032 higher than Puig, and Heyward isn’t even worth mentioning at this point. Players producing similar power this year include Nelson Cruz(.553), Cutch(.563), Paul Goldschmidt(.564), and MIggy(.532). That’s pretty good company considering his WAR is top 5 in the league. And in case you missed it, look up the shot he hit in the Home Run Derby, it was the only hit truly worthy of Chris Berman’s over use of the term “moon shot”.
Add to the above fact that Stanton is 9 for 9 in steal attempts compared to Puig’s 7 for 14 number and you have a pretty clear picture that Stanton is not only the better player, he’s already got the instincts to be in the MVP conversation year after year. Puig may eventually surpass him, but for this year Stanton is superior.
3. SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
Another painfully obvious pick, Tulowitzki has managed to stay healthy and continues to produce at an incredible pace. As far as WAR, Tulo sits at 5.6 with his nearest NL counterpart, Jhonny Peralta, resting at 3.9. There isn’t another NL shortstop with over 100 AB with a batting average over the .300 mark, and he’s slugging .603, almost a full .150 over the next highest (Hanley Ramirez .465).
4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs
Another obvious pick, and the right one, Goldschmidt has been one of few glimmers of hope for the D-backs, especially with Patrick Corbin out for the year. With a 4.6 WAR, Goldy is 1.9 ahead of the second best Anthony Rizzo (A prime contender for the DH slot), and a full 2 wins ahead of 3rd place Matt Adams who missed a pretty substantial amount of time due to injury. Goldy’s slash line is .311/.404/.564 compared to Rizzo’s .281/.384/.522 which are both phenomenal in a league short on power in the post-steroid era. Add gold glove defense and the quiet demeanor so few possess in this era of bat flips and watching fly balls and you have a great face for a middling franchise in need of a couple more solid position players.
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins -> Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (See Below)
6. 3B Aramis Ramirez, Brewers -> Todd Frazier, Reds
A fan favorite, A-Ram is a little beyond his prime. With a WAR of 1.0 compared to Frazier’s 3.6, Rendon’s 3.3, and Sandoval’s 3.2, Ramirez is showing signs of decline. He still puts up solid power with a .451 slg and 11 homers in 268 Abs, he’s just not the right guy this year.
Frazier has busted out this year, among the leaders in HR with 20, 15 for 20 in stolen bases, and an OBP of .350, he’s been a phenomenal asset for a team lacking a healthy Joey Votto and a productive Jay Bruce. Rendon is a good honorable mention but in a glorified exhibition game I’m giving the nod to Frazier for the better power numbers.
7. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Another pick the voters got right, Utley is sitting at 3.0 WAR, with Dee Gordon the next best with 2.4. Utley has managed to elude father time’s grasp for another season apparently, slashing a respectable .286/.343/.436. He’s hit more home runs (8) than everyone else, except Neil Walker (14), and is tied among second basemen with 25 doubles. Overall, this may be the weakest position in the NL so far this year with Dee Gordon and Scooter Gennett providing the only interesting stories as breakout “stars”.
8. C Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
Another correct pick, 4.3 WAR compared to Mesoraco at 3.0, Lucroy has had the break out year that the Brewers had been waiting for. He’s been a solid source of power, 18 HR last year and 9 so far this year, and a career .286 hitter. This season the difference is he’s hit 33 doubles so far compared to 25 all of last year and 46 runs in stark contrast to last season’s 59. Add that his batting average is .314 this year and you can see why he’s the obvious choice. Mesoraco is batting .298 with 16 homeruns, 32 runs, and 15 doubles giving him a clear advantage in the power department especially when considering he has 135 fewer at bats. Despite the heavy lean towards Mesoraco in power, the everyday player gets the nod in this instance. Lucroy was, in fact, the right choice.
9. LF Carlos Gomez, Brewers -> Seth Smith, Padres
I despise that we choose any outfielder to fill the outfield positions; as such, I am replacing Gomez with Smith because Smith actually plays left field. With a 3.2 WAR compared to Gomez’ 3.5, Smith isn’t much of a downgrade.
He’s slashing .284/.384/.509 compared to Christian Yelich’s .273/.349/.426 and 2.2 WAR. Corey Dickerson would be a good honorable mention here but given that he’s amidst a platoon situation in Colorado and I’m not considering him. Smith has about 15% less ABs than some of his Left Field counterparts but he’s played solid defense and is among the leaders in slugging at this position. He’s managed to produce on a bad team, and his average leads all, but Dickerson at the position.
Probably could have stuck with Gomez, but he’s a center fielder, and he tried to start a fight with my beloved Red Sox earlier this season. That gets him replaced in my book.
Now, the position I skipped, the Designated hitter. Giancarlo is a pretty obvious choice but given that he’s a 5 tool player he deserves the positional start. It might also have something to do with the fact I loathe some of Puig’s shenanigans… but I digress.
For this I’m using the Isolated Power metric to conclude the best option. ISOP breaks down as SLG-AVG and perfect ISOP is .300. WAR incorporates defensive metrics and given that the DH is all about the big bats, Power holds sway.
A quick list of Options:
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs .242
Ryan Braun, Brewers .223 (Ineligible due to an affinity for banned substances)
Khris Davis, Brewers .222
Justin Upton, Braves .220
Rizzo is crushing this year. He’s got 23 bombs and hitting .281 for the floundering cubs. It pains me every time I watch a highlight of him, since he should be in a Red Sox uniform, but we had to have Adrian Gonzalez so I’ll just have to watch him miss the playoffs and be the shining star in the Friendly Confines. God I hate Theo Epstein.
SP. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
No argument, Kershaw was injured for a good part of the beginning of the season and has 4 fewer starts; Cueto has 2 fewer wins and 2 more losses than Wainwright. Wainwright has been this good for so long, making it hard to argue against him. Had Kershaw not been injured he would undoubtedly have deserved the starting nod given that he was a WHIP of .84 and 134 k’s over 103 innings pitched… ohh yeah, and that one game where Hanley screwed up his perfect game. Give Kershaw 30 more innings and this is a different conversation, but he doesn’t have them so it’s not. In any case, per WAR we have Wainwright (5.1), Kershaw (4.2), and Cueto (3.5), leaving Wainwright the obvious choice to start.
In closing, with two different approaches the ultimate outcomes are similar and the conclusion is the same; fan voting is the most unfitting way to pick a line-up for a game deciding home field advantage in the World Series. Selig is, has been, and will continue to be on his way out, until the day finally comes that he actually leaves his post as commissioner. Once that happens we can hopefully return the All-Star Game to an exhibition, let the fans vote, and have it determine nothing more than “bragging rights” if it’s even worthy of that. As far as the actual conclusions drawn, the National League needed 4 tweaks, whereas with Matt’s approach there were an astonishing 7 changes to the American League Line up. Obviously Jeter wasn’t going to start on the bench in his final All-Star game, but it still tarnishes some of the allure associated with being an “all-star” when you pass over the deserving star for a veteran amidst his victory lap of the league. So in this modern age with so many line-up changes year in and year out, how best to choose the all-stars? It’s nearly impossible for the casual fan to be aware of every up and comer and even the voting for Gold Gloves ends up favoring popularity over performance and that’s based on a writer’s vote. Ultimately most of those deserving of All-star status at least end up on the bench, but the significance of the game is greatly exaggerated when players such as Jeter get voted in keeping the next young superstar from being a household name that much longer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dedication: Rest in peace Earl Scott Carlin, a Trinity-Pawling brother. You did not have a "mean" bone in your body and were the epitome of an altruistic and kind-hearted person. You were a natural born leader, who we adored for your unparalleled niceness. The world needs more people like you, not less. I can only wish to have the amount of kindness in my heart, as you did in yours. However, I will try to replicate your good will, in your honor. You will be greatly missed and never forgotten. There most definitely is a place in Heaven for you.
No comments:
Post a Comment