For our next combined piece, we chose to tackle the seemingly controversial, Gold Glove award. Just as with our “True All-Stars” I will be charged with creating an analysis of the National League and Lessard will broach the American League. We will be choosing which statistics and metrics to use independently, without the other knowing so as to possibly give different approaches to our respective sides.
The decision to address this topic was brought on by several conversations condemning the processes designated to choose different awards and honors, namely giving coaches and managers the power over the Gold Glove. Given that most of the “old school” analysts and baseball personnel despise the new metrics and better ways to quantify how a player is valuable, very few of them go beyond their love of the well-known “eye test” that years of scouting has relied on.
Often times you see players with less deserving resumes overtake less popular, defensive minded ones as a result of the offensive bias so rampant in the minds of those who get to vote in the post season awards. As voted by the Managers and Coaches of the league, many more popular stars get the honor of this award despite posting less than stellar defensive numbers. Ozzie Smith was a dazzling exception; a middling offensive talent, his defense was revered by those he shared the field with. A career .262 hitter (peaking at .303); he collected 13 consecutive gold gloves during his career, and an average WAR of 3.5. Unfortunately, the newer advanced defensive statistics are unavailable for earlier players, but anyone with even a modest awareness of the MLB years past knows the legend of Ozzie’s defensive prowess.
------------------------------
I will begin this installment by breaking down the players in the National League who are deserving of the Gold Glove at this point in the season. I will mainly be using the advanced metric Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) which allocates a run value to defensive performance. This analysis will occasionally be justified, or undermined by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) which takes into account many similar statistics and gives a clearer view of range and fielding ability, in regards to saving runs relative to other players at the same position and how well they field the easy plays and hard plays alike. The abridged version of these statistics' tiers are -15, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, 15 ranging from awful(-15) to Gold glove Caliber(15) with 0 representing an average fielder. Like all advanced metrics it is suggested we examine multiple years to gain a better perspective, but we’re after the single season, stand out performers not those that compile years of consistency (Sorry Managers and Coaches, your idol worship is lost on me).
The last two years the best examples I can find of players overlooked is Starling Marte and Mark Ellis. Marte tallied a wondrous 20 DRS compared to Gold Glove Winner Carlos Gonzalez, who was in fact 2nd, with 10 in left field. UZR confirms what DRS already dictated, showing Marte at 10.2 and Gonzalez at 7.1, which was good enough for 3rd. Marte may have been overlooked for being a second year player, playing beside Andrew McCutchen who undoubtedly makes his life a lot easier, or just because he was yet to achieve the regal status of being a “household name.” Brandon Phillips managed to snag a Gold Glove with only 1 DRS compared to Ellis’ 12, Darwin Barney’s 11, and Neil Walker’s 9 and all played a comparable number of innings. Phillips has been a very popular player in the league and happens to be a very solid defensive second basemen but unfortunately even the other most widely used advanced defensive metric, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), places him behind Barney, and in the same general range as Ellis.
With all that said, it’s time to broach this years “favorites” for the award. Come the end of season we’ll undoubtedly reexamine our predictions based on the current numbers and see how reliable the half season sample size was. I’ll do this by starting with the catcher and working our way towards the outfield, entirely ignoring the pitcher, because let’s be honest, aside from an occasional web gem a pitcher better be able to make the throw to first if he comes up with the ball. Last year’s winner will be shown in parentheses with this year’s DRS and UZR. I’ll keep my explanations to the top 3 within a reasonable range of total innings. In the words of Patton Oswalt, “I’m drunk, here we go!”
Catcher (DRS Only) – Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers – 6 (Yadier Molina, Cardinals – 4)
So far this year Lucroy has amassed a DRS of 6 compared to Molina’s 4. The only outlier here is Russell Martin with 8 DRS but I chose to slight him for now given that he has nearly 250 less innings than Lucroy and just over 200 less than Molina. For catcher’s UZR isn't computable and DRS is less reliable than other positions because it doesn't take into account game-calling but given the reputations of these top 3, it’s obvious it’s got something right in it’s make up. Martin and Molina are both well known for their value to pitching staffs and given this is only Lucroy’s 2nd full season in the majors, he still has time to gain that reputation. I’m predicting Lucroy continues to stay at the top, especially with Molina on the shelf for the foreseeable future, and given Martin’s offensive woes he will undoubtedly be overlooked in favor of the more exciting Lucroy, especially if the defense is even remotely close.
1st Base (DRS/UZR) – Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers – 7/4.4 (Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks – 0/-2.2)
Currently Yonder Alonso and Matt Adams sit at 8 DRS and 2.5/3.5 UZR respectively, which would put them in the conversation if they were closer to Gonzalez as far as innings but they aren’t, at least for now. Gonzalez has played 827 innings this season, Morneau has posted 4/3.1 in 728 innings, and Rizzo 2/2.7 in 853. Gonzalez has always been known for his defensive acumen and this year is no different. Considering LA is one of several teams slated to go deep into October which will only bolster Gonzalez’ case with both Rizzo and Morneau likely to be irrelevant come September. Goldschmidt is unlikely to remain so far below others at this position given he scored 13/5.4 last season, but I believe he will remain on the outside looking in especially if the voters want to keep him from uniting the Silver Slugger with the Gold Glove. In any case, Adrian Gonzalez should remain atop the ranks throughout the season but look for Rizzo to be in this conversation given the breakout he’s having this year.
2nd Base – DJ LeMahieu, Rockies – 12/8 (Brandon Phillips, Reds – 3/4.5)
LeMahieu sat atop the DRS leader board last year but only played a partial season, this year having played 711 innings for Colorado he is in a much better position to be considered and currently has a decisive lead. Darwin Barney and Mark Ellis are again atop the leader board but have played far fewer innings than typical day to day players. Also worthy of consideration are Chase Utley (3/4.6) and Brandon Phillips but they’re numbers pale in comparison to what LeMahieu has done so far this year. It’s likely you’ll see Utley take the award given how well known he is and the likelihood the gap will close enough to justify it. LeMahieu has a small sample size for these specific metrics, which will likely be ignored by the voting base anyway, but it’s impressive to say the least. I’m going to pick this to be the position most likely to be gift wrapped for an aging veteran to take over the up and comer.
Shortstop – Zack Cozart, Reds – 17/11.3 (Andrelton Simmons Braves – 9/7.2)
Andrelton had one of the best defensive seasons in the history of baseball last year (Posting 43/24.6 in each statistic respectively), this year he has fallen back to earth and currently sits 3rd in DRS. Cozart was top 10 in both metrics last year and currently is having a career year defensively for the Reds, another great candidate to lose the award due to poor offensive performance, if he continues the season in such a manner he should be the undeniable favorite come season’s end. Also in consideration Jhonny Peralta has a 15/8.7 line and Tulo sits at 9/3.5 which are both very respectable but given that the managers tend to favor past winners, Simmons is the most likely to beat out Cozart.
3rd Base – Pablo Sandoval, Giants – 10/3.8 (Nolan Arenado, Rockies – 9/7.3)
Sandoval has had a great year. After a slow start offensively he’s currently a top 3rd baseman. Arenado started the year on fire both offensively and defensively and the unfortunate injury has put him 300 innings behind Sandoval. Other considerations at 3rd are David Wright (7/-1.1), Martin Prado (6/2.6), and Matt Carpenter (5/5.9). Given that Carpenter has the most consistent numbers in both statistics I will put him as the likely candidate to make a case in the second half for the award. If Arenado makes a strong case in the second half to retain his throne, it’s hard to bet against him, but I think this might be Kung-Fu Panda’s year and who can argue against a guy doing it on both sides of the ball for a team primed for a title run.
Right Field – Jason Heyward, Braves – 28/20.5 (Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks – 3/-2.4)
The next right fielder with similar innings is Giancarlo Stanton (7/1.9) but Nate Schierholtz (8/6.8) 2nd and 3rd in both metrics respectively with over 200 fewer innings than either Heyward or Stanton. Really this is Heyward’s award, he’ll have to collapse in a major way to give any weight to another candidate and he was even a borderline candidate for the DH slot in our “Real All-Star” blog given his WAR. Parra is above average on one side of the coin but below average in the other so don’t expect him to rise to the level of Heyward or Stanton.
Center Field – Billy Hamilton, Reds – 8/11.6 (Carlos Gomez, Brewers – 2/4.5)
Marcell Ozuna has comparable innings but is below average per UZR and only ahead of Hamilton by 2 in DRS. My opinion given how far above average in both Hamilton is he deserves the nod in his rookie season, that partnered with how game changing his speed on the base paths has been, he’s been a valuable asset to a team currently lacking both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Suprisingly Andrew McCutchen isn’t even a consideration posting -7/-10.4 this season, which I find doubly unsettling than the revelation that Goldschmidt isn’t a top 1st baseman per defensive metrics. In any case, Billy Hamilton is a fitting nominee to this post and will likely be among the top defensive players in the outfield for years to come.
Left Field – Christian Yelich, Marlins – 6/8.5 (Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies - -5/-3.6)
CarGo has been injured for the better part of this season so we really don’t need to talk about him; Yelich on the other hand is top 6 in innings played at the position while holding down 3rd and 1st respectively in the highlighted metrics. Khris Davis is posting a 7/3.3 line in the two metrics of choice but given the UZR he’s posting shows a substantially smaller ranger than Yelich who is a mere run behind him in DRS. Other contenders of note are Marte (6/2.9), Eric Young (3/6.3 in 413 INN), and Seth Smith (3/-1 472 INN) who I’m including as a result of his nomination to my All-Star team. Yelich having been the runner up in my All-Star conversation is clearly more valuable on the defensive side of the ball but is a relative unknown and gets overshadowed in any conversation involving the Marlins due to sharing the outfield with Giancarlo Stanton. Overall, the metrics demonstrate that he has range and significant defensive value on a team that is 22nd in team ERA at 3.98 so he's had plenty of opportunities to hone his defensive skill set.
It is now my pleasure to break down and provide an in-depth analysis for the American League Gold Glove Winners. For my analysis of the past American League Gold Glove Winners, I will consider the years of 2011, 2012, and 2013. Prior to my analysis, I made the conjecture that there is and was significant bias when selecting the Gold Glove winners. I sincerely believe that some of the most valuable defensive players do not receive the award, due to their sub-par offensive performances. For my analysis, I will use the statistics of Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR), Fielding Percentage, and in addition, for catchers only, Caught Stealing Percentage. I understand that the statistic of Fielding Percentage can have some bias and discrepancy due to the variance in opportunities between players. However, that is why I also elected to use dWAR in my analysis. The following table breaks down the statistical analysis performed. Also, I will exclude pitchers from the analysis.
Position
|
Winner
|
Fielding %
|
Fielding % Leader
|
Def. War
|
Def. War Leader
|
Caught Stealing %
|
CS % Leader
| |
2013
|
Catcher
|
Salvador Perez
|
0.993
|
A.J. Pierzynski
|
2.2
|
Salvador Perez
|
42%
|
Joe Mauer
|
First Base
|
Eric Hosmer
|
0.994
|
Justin Morneau
|
-0.5
|
Mike Napoli
| |||
Second Base
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
0.993
|
Ben Zobrist
|
2.2
|
Dustin Pedroia
| |||
Third Base
|
Manny Machado
|
0.973
|
Manny Machado
|
4.3
|
Manny Machado
| |||
Shortstop
|
J.J. Hardy
|
0.981
|
Yunel Escobar
|
1.9
|
Elvis Andrus
| |||
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
0.995
|
Michael Brantley
|
1.2
|
Alex Gordon
| |||
Center Field
|
Adam Jones
|
0.995
|
Denard Span, Coco Crisp
|
0.3
|
Lorenzo Cain
| |||
Right Field
|
Shane Victorino
|
0.990
|
Nick Markakis
|
2.2
|
Shane Victorino
| |||
2012
|
Catcher
|
Matt Wieters
|
0.991
|
Jose Molina
|
1.3
|
Salvador Perez
|
39%
|
Salvador Perez
|
First Base
|
Mark Teixeira
|
0.999
|
Mark Teixeira
|
1
|
Mark Teixeira
| |||
Second Base
|
Robinson Cano
|
0.992
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
1.9
|
Robinson Cano
| |||
Third Base
|
Adrian Beltre
|
0.974
|
Adrian Beltre
|
1.4
|
Brett Lawrie
| |||
Shortstop
|
J.J. Hardy
|
0.992
|
J.J. Hardy
|
2.7
|
Brendan Ryan
| |||
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
0.994
|
Desmond Jennings
|
1.9
|
Desmond Jennings
| |||
Center Field
|
Adam Jones
|
0.982
|
Craig Gentry, Curtis Granderson
|
-1.3
|
Denard Span
| |||
Right Field
|
Josh Reddick
|
0.982
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
1.3
|
Josh Reddick
| |||
2011
|
Catcher
|
Matt Wieters
|
0.995
|
A.J. Pierzynski
|
2.7
|
Matt Wieters
|
37%
|
Kelly Shopach
|
First Base
|
Adrian Gonzalez
|
0.997
|
Casey Kotchman
|
0.3
|
Adrian Gonalez
| |||
Second Base
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
0.990
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
2.3
|
Ben Zobrist
| |||
Third Base
|
Adrian Beltre
|
0.965
|
Kevin Youkilis
|
1.5
|
Evan Longoria
| |||
Shortstop
|
Erick Aybar
|
0.980
|
J.J Hardy
|
0.7
|
Brendan Ryan
| |||
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
0.991
|
Alex Gordon
|
1.3
|
Brett Gardner
| |||
Center Field
|
Jacoby Ellsbury
|
1.000
|
Jacoby Ellsbury
|
1.1
|
Austin Jackson
| |||
Right Field
|
Nick Markakis
|
1.000
|
Nick Markakis
|
-0.4
|
Josh Reddick
| |||
I want to begin my analysis with the 2011 winners. As you can see, the only two winners, who actually led the league in dWAR, for their respective positions, were Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Wieters. In terms of Fielding Percentage for the winners, only three winners led the league. These players being Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Nick Markakis. However, for an outfielder it is much easier to maintain a higher fielding percentage, so I am heavily leaning on dWAR for my analysis. Of these winners, the only ones who truly deserved the award, statistically speaking are Matt Wieters, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, and possibly Jacoby Ellsbury. I say possibly to Jacoby Ellsbury deserving the award because anyone who has ever watched Ellsbury play knows that he has the arm of your average college player. Arm strength and accuracy (depicted somewhat through the stats of Assists and Fielding Percentage) are very important for outfield positions and should be taken into account when considering candidates for the award. The largest snub in my opinion was with Brendan Ryan, who toted a laudable 2.6 dWAR, which is truly incredible. However, on the season, Ryan only amassed a mere .248 batting average in combination with below average power numbers, which should not have impacted the results, but I am inclined to believe they did.
For 2012, the statistical analysis and results were not much different. Of the winners, three actually led the league in terms of dWAR, for their respective positions. They were Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Josh Reddick. Then again, for fielding percentage, only three winners led the league. They were Mark Teixeira, Adrian Beltre, and J.J. Hardy. Of these winners, the ones who truly deserved the award, were Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre, and Josh Reddick. Once again, Brendan Ryan was one of the most cheated players for the award. Ryan put forth an even higher dWAR than in 2011, totaling at 3.6. In terms of dWAR, even the greatest players would struggle to put up a figure like that. Also, pretty much every other Center Fielder got snubbed. The winner, Adam Jones, had a dWAR of -1.3 and Fielding Percentage of 0.982, both of which are not great figures. Again, the selection committee had some sort of unjust, offensive bias towards the other players resulting in Jones receiving the award.
Lastly, I evaluated the winners from last season and there was some improvement in terms of the selections. Five of the winners in 2013 led the league in dWAR for their respective positions. However, only one of the winners led the league in terms of fielding percentage, this being Manny Machado. This was the best year in terms of legitimate winners, for five of them truly deserved it. These players being Salvador Perez, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Machado, Alex Gordon, and Shane Victorino. In fact, Manny Machado put forth debatably one of the greatest defensive seasons for a third baseman, especially in statistical terms. His 4.6 dWAR is pretty much untouchable, seeing as the majority of players struggle to reach an overall WAR of 3.0. Biggest snubs for the 2013 season include various first basemen and center fielders.
The following chart contains a statistical summary of the aforementioned material.
Year
|
% of Winners with Best dWAR
|
% of Winners with Best Fielding %
|
Best CS
|
2013 |
62.5%
|
12.5%
|
No
|
2012 |
37.5%
|
37.5%
|
No
|
2011 |
25.0%
|
37.5%
|
No
|
Examining the chart above, you can see that of the Gold Glove winners during the previous three seasons, on average, did not really hold the best defensive statistics. The only respectable statistic above was from the 2013 season, when 62.5% of the winners were leaders for their position at dWAR. In the past three years, a catcher who lead the league in Caught Stealing percentage never won a Gold Glove. I feel as if the ability to throw out base runners is an integral component of a catcher's defensive game. With consideration of the data above, I am convinced the award selection committee (comprised of managers and coaches) does not truly consider the most valuable defensive players and has some sort of popularity or offensive bias.
Lastly, I will provide a statistical analysis for the 2014 season thus far and provide my insight on who the true winners should be, as of this date.
Position
|
Def. War Leader
|
Fielding % Leader
|
CS % Leader
| |||
2014
|
Catcher
|
Salvador Perez
|
Ryan Hannigan, Chris Ianetta
|
Caleb Joseph
| ||
First Base
|
Chris Davis
|
Chris Davis
| ||||
Second Base
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
Dustin Pedroia
| ||||
Third Base
|
Josh Donaldson
|
David Freese
| ||||
Shortstop
|
J.J. Hardy
|
Erick Aybar
| ||||
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
Dustin Ackley, Michael
Brantley, Brett Gardner
| ||||
Center Field
|
Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley Jr.
|
Jackie Bradley Jr.,
Desmond Jennings
| ||||
Right Field
|
Collin Cowgill
|
Nick Markakis, Ichiro
Suzuki
| ||||
Considering the information above, I firmly believe that any of these players, for their respective positions would be deserving candidates. However, there are a couple of exceptions to that statement, due to lack of playing time such as Collin Cowgill and Caleb Joseph. With that being said, due to the unknown bias of the selection committee, the deserving players who I could see being snubbed include Ryan Hannigan, David Freese, Dustin Ackley, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Lorenzo Cain. As I stated above, the Gold Glove selections for some reason seem to have an offensive and popularity influence and unfortunately these players do not have the offensive numbers and/or popularity to win this award. Bradley Jr., if he does not win the award like I assume, will be one of the most cheated players for this award. His defense abilities are among some of the greatest in the game, in terms of the center field position. However, his lack of offensive numbers will unjustly sway the voters away from him.
With my belief of an offensive influence behind the selection of the Gold Glove Winners, I sought to find statistical evidence that would corroborate my hunch. Thus, I decided to record the batting average of all of the winners for the 2011-2013 seasons. The data is as follows:
Position
|
Winner
|
B.A.
| |
2013
|
Catcher
|
Salvador Perez
|
0.292
|
First Base
|
Eric Hosmer
|
0.302
| |
Second Base
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
0.301
| |
Third Base
|
Manny Machado
|
0.283
| |
Shortstop
|
J.J. Hardy
|
0.263
| |
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
0.265
| |
Center Field
|
Adam Jones
|
0.285
| |
Right Field
|
Shane Victorino
|
0.294
| |
Overall
|
0.286
| ||
2012
|
Catcher
|
Matt Wieters
|
0.249
|
First Base
|
Mark Teixeira
|
0.251
| |
Second Base
|
Robinson Cano
|
0.313
| |
Third Base
|
Adrian Beltre
|
0.321
| |
Shortstop
|
J.J. Hardy
|
0.238
| |
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
0.294
| |
Center Field
|
Adam Jones
|
0.287
| |
Right Field
|
Josh Reddick
|
0.242
| |
Overall
|
0.274
| ||
2011
|
Catcher
|
Matt Wieters
|
0.262
|
First Base
|
Adrian Gonzalez
|
0.338
| |
Second Base
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
0.307
| |
Third Base
|
Adrian Beltre
|
0.296
| |
Shortstop
|
Erick Aybar
|
0.279
| |
Left Field
|
Alex Gordon
|
0.303
| |
Center Field
|
Jacoby Ellsbury
|
0.321
| |
Right Field
|
Nick Markakis
|
0.284
| |
Overall
|
0.299
|
Looking at the averages of all the winners batting averages, one can discern that all of these numbers are very good. In 2011, this average batting average reached 0.299, which is well above the league average. I tried to look for any anomalies, however all of these winners put forth above average to superior offensive numbers. You can try to make the argument for J.J. Hardy and Josh Reddick, whose averages were not great. However, both Reddick and Hardy accumulated great power numbers, especially in 2012, when Hardy hit 22 home runs and Reddick hit 32 home runs. With the consideration of these significant offensive numbers, I am inclined to believe that in fact offensive performance has some influence. Not one of these players had a sub-par offensive season, which is fine, however an overwhelming majority of these players did not record the greatest defensive statistics for their respective positions.
Overall, despite the varying forms of statistical analyses for defensive performances implemented by myself and Adam, we once again reached a general consensus. This agreement being that, in fact, there is an offensive/ popularity bias, taken into account when choosing the Gold Glove winners. Thus, a majority of the more deserving players, due to their poor offensive performances and/or lack of popularity, get cheated. We hope that this article helped illuminate or strengthen any prior opinions you may have had regarding this award.
Overall, despite the varying forms of statistical analyses for defensive performances implemented by myself and Adam, we once again reached a general consensus. This agreement being that, in fact, there is an offensive/ popularity bias, taken into account when choosing the Gold Glove winners. Thus, a majority of the more deserving players, due to their poor offensive performances and/or lack of popularity, get cheated. We hope that this article helped illuminate or strengthen any prior opinions you may have had regarding this award.
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