As you should already know, the 2014 MLB Playoffs will commence tonight with the first Wild Card game between the Oakland Athletics and the Kansas City Royals. This playoff berth for the Kansas City Royals is the organizations first since they won the World Series back in 1985. Honoring the beginning of the 2014 Postseason, I dedicate this post to analyzing and breaking down tonights game. However, I would first like to compare the final records for the Athletics, Mariners, and Royals with the projections I made for each during the last stretch of the regular season.
Athletics- Actual Final Record: 88-74 Projected Final Record: 88-74
Mariners- Actual Final Record: 87-75 Projected Final Record: 87-75
Royals- Actual Final Record: 89-73 Projected Final Record: 88-74
As you can see above, my predicted final records for both the A's and the Mariners were spot on, per the statistical projections I made in Updated AL Wild Card Race Scenarios. The projection I made for the Royals only deviated from the actual record by one game, favoring the Royals.
Now, I will commence with my analysis for the first Wild Card playoff game between Oakland and Kansas City. During the regular season, the A's and Royals met 7 times, in which the Royals were victorious 5 times. This gives the Royals a 0.714 winning percentage against the Athletics for the 2014 season (71.4% chance they will win tonight). Thus, the odds are heavily in favor for the Royals proceeding to the next round.
I will now delve further into the analysis of the game by examining tonights starting pitchers and offenses for both teams.
Jon Lester- Overall: (16-11, 2.46) Against the Royals: (3 Starts, 3-0, 2.61)
James Shields- Overall: (14-8, 3.21) Against the Athletics: (2 Starts, 1-0, 3.21, Kansas City won both games)
KC Team Offense- Overall: (.263, 651 Runs, 4.02 Runs/Game) Against OAK: (3.43 Runs/Game)
OAK Team Offense- Overall: (.244, 729 Runs, 4.5 Runs/Game) Against KC: (3.71 Runs/Game, In the 2 Games Won 9.5 Runs/Game, In the 5 Games Lost 1.4 Runs/Game)
As you can discern from the statistics and analysis above, the Royals are favored in terms of overall win percentage between the two clubs, meanwhile the A's have the advantage in terms of their Starting Pitcher and Offense. Keep in mind that the Athletics scored 19 of their 26 runs against the Royals during the 2 games in which they defeated the Royals. Considering everything above, I am inclined to pick the Royals as the favorites for winning this game. This prediction comes after quite the amount of deliberation, however the Royals have proven themselves to be the hotter team right now.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Monday, September 22, 2014
Updated AL Wild Card Race Scenarios
Records as of 09/22/14
Oakland Athletics: 85-70
Seattle Mariners: 83-72
Kansas City Royals: 84-70
Adjusted September Win Percentages as of 09/22/14
Oakland Athletics: 0.368
Seattle Mariners: 0.526
Kansas City Royals: 0.526
Remaining Number of Games as of 09/22/14
Oakland Athletics: 7
Seattle Mariners: 7
Kansas City Royals: 7
Projected Wins Remaining/ Final Records
Oakland Athletics: 2.576 -> 3 (88-74)
Seattle Mariners: 3.682 -> 4 (87-75)
Kansas City Royals: 3.682 -> 4 (88-74)
Current Projection: At this rate, Oakland and Kansas City should receive Wild Card berths. Meanwhile, the Mariners would not make the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics: 85-70
Seattle Mariners: 83-72
Kansas City Royals: 84-70
Adjusted September Win Percentages as of 09/22/14
Oakland Athletics: 0.368
Seattle Mariners: 0.526
Kansas City Royals: 0.526
Remaining Number of Games as of 09/22/14
Oakland Athletics: 7
Seattle Mariners: 7
Kansas City Royals: 7
Projected Wins Remaining/ Final Records
Oakland Athletics: 2.576 -> 3 (88-74)
Seattle Mariners: 3.682 -> 4 (87-75)
Kansas City Royals: 3.682 -> 4 (88-74)
Current Projection: At this rate, Oakland and Kansas City should receive Wild Card berths. Meanwhile, the Mariners would not make the playoffs.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
The 2014 American League Wild Card Race
With the conclusion of the 2014 MLB campaign winding down, there are three teams that transcend the rest in the AL Wild Card Race. These teams being the Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Seattle Mariners. The Detroit Tigers could possibly be thrown in this mix due to their infinitesimal lead in the AL Central, over the Royals. However, I am opting to only analyze the teams actually vying for a wild card playoff berth, as of 9/18/2014. Thus, this post is dedicated to assessing the 2014 Wild Card race and making conjectures as to who will advance into postseason play.
I will now commence with the analysis of the Kansas City Royals. With 11 games remaining on their schedule, the Royals tote an 83-68 record. As I alluded to earlier, the Tigers have a mere 0.5 game lead on the Royals in the AL Central. However, the Royals have had great success post all-star game, leading me to make the prediction that they will at least secure a Wild Card spot.
The graph above displays the win percentages by month for the Royals throughout this 2014 season. As you can see, I combined March and April because many teams only played one game at the tail end of March. This graph contains some very positive information for the Royals pertaining to their season outcome. There is an upward linear trend in the data, meaning that the Royals overall win percentage has increased as the their season progressed. If they do make it to October, as I firmly believe they will, the Royals should have some success, considering the trends in the data. With the recognition of their 0.563 win percentage for this month, I project the Royals to win 6 of their last 11 games. If they do win these 6 games, then they will almost certainly secure a playoff berth.
Now, I will move onto a team who was scorching hot prior to the all-star break, but as of recently has struggled immensely. This team being the Oakland Athletics. Coming into the night, the A's have an 83-68 record, similar to the Royals. However, as I insinuated above, unlike the Royals, the A's have had a losing trend as of lately. It projects as if they will not make the playoffs, which is a shame considering the trades they executed and prospects/star players (Yoenis Cespedes) they lost as a result.
As I did for the Royals, I made a graph displaying the win percentage by month for the Athletics. There are many distinct discrepancies between the Royals graph and the A's graph. However, the most prominent difference is the downward trend. This shows that as the season progressed, the Athletics persisted to win less games. With the consideration of their trends and current win percentage for September, I project the A's to win 4 out of their last 11 games.
Lastly, I will analyze the Seattle Mariners race for a Wild Card position. As of today, the Mariners have amassed an 81-70 record, with 11 games remaining on their schedule. Like the Royals, the Mariners have a winning inclination in this later half of the season.
I will now commence with the analysis of the Kansas City Royals. With 11 games remaining on their schedule, the Royals tote an 83-68 record. As I alluded to earlier, the Tigers have a mere 0.5 game lead on the Royals in the AL Central. However, the Royals have had great success post all-star game, leading me to make the prediction that they will at least secure a Wild Card spot.
Win Percentage
|
0.5625
|
Games Remaining
|
11
|
Predicted Wins
|
6.1875
|
Final Record
|
89-73
|
The graph above displays the win percentages by month for the Royals throughout this 2014 season. As you can see, I combined March and April because many teams only played one game at the tail end of March. This graph contains some very positive information for the Royals pertaining to their season outcome. There is an upward linear trend in the data, meaning that the Royals overall win percentage has increased as the their season progressed. If they do make it to October, as I firmly believe they will, the Royals should have some success, considering the trends in the data. With the recognition of their 0.563 win percentage for this month, I project the Royals to win 6 of their last 11 games. If they do win these 6 games, then they will almost certainly secure a playoff berth.
Now, I will move onto a team who was scorching hot prior to the all-star break, but as of recently has struggled immensely. This team being the Oakland Athletics. Coming into the night, the A's have an 83-68 record, similar to the Royals. However, as I insinuated above, unlike the Royals, the A's have had a losing trend as of lately. It projects as if they will not make the playoffs, which is a shame considering the trades they executed and prospects/star players (Yoenis Cespedes) they lost as a result.
Win Percentage
|
0.333333333
|
Games Remaining
|
11
|
Predicted Wins Left
|
3.666666667
|
Final Record
|
87-75
|
As I did for the Royals, I made a graph displaying the win percentage by month for the Athletics. There are many distinct discrepancies between the Royals graph and the A's graph. However, the most prominent difference is the downward trend. This shows that as the season progressed, the Athletics persisted to win less games. With the consideration of their trends and current win percentage for September, I project the A's to win 4 out of their last 11 games.
Lastly, I will analyze the Seattle Mariners race for a Wild Card position. As of today, the Mariners have amassed an 81-70 record, with 11 games remaining on their schedule. Like the Royals, the Mariners have a winning inclination in this later half of the season.
Win Percentage
|
0.5
|
Games Remaining
|
11
|
Predicted Wins Left
|
5.5
|
Final Record
|
87-75
|
As you can probably discern, the Mariners have an upward trend for their win percentage. Considering their current win percentage for September, I predict that the Mariners will win 6 of their last 11 games.
You may have noticed that both the Athletics and the Mariners project to have 87-75 final records. If the season ended in that fashion, there would be a one game playoff for the the final wild card position. In that scenario, I would favor the Mariners to advance to postseason play. However, I do wish to examine the remaining schedule for each team, in order to assess the practicality of this scenario materializing.
Mariners: Angels * 4, Blue Jays * 4, Astros * 3
Athletics: Angels * 3, Phillies * 3, Rangers * 5
The Athletics clearly have the easier remaining schedule. Thus, despite their recent losing propensity, the Athletics should be able to oust the Mariners. However, mark my words, do not sleep on the Mariners.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
The Legend of the 2014 Kansas City Royals
Twitter: @Real_TPNB Facebook: The Power of Numbers in Baseball
Currently (as of 9/10/14), the Kansas City Royals are in first place within the American League Central division and project to be on their way to the 2014 postseason. A trip to the playoffs for the Royals this season would mark an accomplishment that the organization has not attained since the 1985 season, when they eventually moved on to taking the World Series title. To say that the Royals have been in a rut since achieving the title would be a severe understatement. At first, last seasons record of 86-76 appeared to be an anomaly for a perennial failing organization. However, this seasons performance seems to disprove that belief and show that the Royals may in fact have put their losing inclinations behind them. With the acknowledgment of the Royals recent victorious ways, I sought to dedicate a post to analyzing their 2014 season. Thus, this post will be dedicated to pursuing that exact endeavor.
As you can see in the title, I opted to use the word "legend" when describing this 2014 campaign for the Royals. The reason I utilized this word is because of the statistical variance for this Kansas City club. Typically, if you saw a team was in first place in their division, you would assume that the team would be superior in many statistical categories. However, the Royals prove to be quite the statistical anomaly. I will now explicate my reasoning, via statistics I pulled from MLB.com.
Offense
Team BA: .261 (5th in the MLB)
Team HRs: 89 (Last in the MLB)
Team OBP: .311 (20th in the MLB)
Team SLG: .376 (20th in the MLB)
Team Runs: 579 (16th in the MLB)
Team Steals: 135 (1st in the MLB)
Defense
Team Fielding Percentage: .983 (22nd in the MLB)
Team Errors: 92 (10th most in the MLB)
Pitching
Team ERA: 3.50 (8th in the MLB)
Team WHIP: 1.26 (14th in the MLB)
Team Saves: 48 (4th in the MLB)
As you can discern after a first glance of viewing these key statistics, the Royals are clearly not a superior team. They are well below average in terms of team statistical offense. However, they do have a commendable team batting average and are clearly dominant on the base paths. The SB leader of the Royals is none other than Jarrod Dyson, with a total of 33 swiped bags. Dyson, if you can recollect, is an undervalued player whom I highlighted in an earlier post (Who is Jarrod Dyson? (By: M. Lessard)). Despite both his offensive and defensive prowess, Dyson is yet to assume the role of an everyday starter. I believe that this is an utter outrage, but there is nothing I can do to rectify this situation. After analyzing the team offensive statistics for the Royals, I can acknowledge that they have a superior ability to reach base via base hits and then move pretty much at their own will once they reach base. In terms of team defense, the Royals are absolutely atrocious, despite having the presence of perennial Gold-Glover Alex Gordon on their roster. If there is one aspect of the Royals game that has been their savior, it is their pitching. Team pitching is the only all-around above average aspect of the Royals game. Although, even with some of the best team pitching in the MLB, there has to be another reason as to why the Royals are able to remain persistent in their winning ways. Thus, I decided to delve further into my offensive statistical analysis of the 2014 Royals.
Offense
Team AVG in Games Won: .290 (10th in the MLB)
Team Runs in Games Won: 443 (9th in the MLB)
Team AVG with RISP: .271 (5th in the MLB)
Team RBIs with RISP: 446 (8th in the MLB)
Team AVG for Away Games: .261 (3rd in the MLB)
Team Runs for Away Games: 319 (6th in the MLB)
Team AVG for Home Games: .252 (19th in the MLB)
Team Runs for Home Games: 263 (26th in the MLB)
Home Record: 38-33 (W%= 0.535)
Away Record: 42-32 (W%= 0.562)
Team BA Inning Breakdown:
Through analyzing the statistics above, I am able to distinguish some rationale as to why the Royals are able to accumulate so many wins, with sub par overall offensive and fielding performances. First, typically a team likes to utilize a home field advantage in order to enhance their prospects of winning. However, the Royals do not conform to this normalcy. For the Royals have much better offensive statistics when playing on the road and even have amassed a better record and win percentage when playing in foreign confines.
The next statistical section of discussion is related to the Royals performance in games of which they have won. During their winning endeavors, the Royals rank in the top third for Runs and BA. This insinuates that the Royals score many runs in the games of which they are triumphant. To be precise, they average 5.54 runs per win.
In previous posts, I have made implications toward a concept of clutch hitting in baseball. I still stand by my belief that the teams who execute the most in auspicious offensive scenarios (i.e. with RISP) or when its a necessity (i.e. extra innings), will in turn be the more successful teams. Through the evaluation of the Royals offensive production in these situations, I can make the assessment that they are able to perform well offensively when they most need it. As you can see, the Royals are among the upper echelon in the MLB, in terms of hitting with RISP. Team RISP is seemingly very important for a teams success. If you can recall, in my first post, I illuminated some teams which had top tier RISP hitting. Two of the best RISP hitting teams from the 2013 season were the World Series contenders, the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals. Not only are the Royals able to exploit favorable offensive scenarios, but also possess the uncanny ability to hit in dire situations. During extra innings this season, the Royals have amassed a team batting average of .301.
In recent years, the Royals front office most certainly has done a good job in terms of rebuilding their organization. As long as the continue to justly compensate their young stars and build around them, they should have no difficulty remaining playoff contenders.
Currently (as of 9/10/14), the Kansas City Royals are in first place within the American League Central division and project to be on their way to the 2014 postseason. A trip to the playoffs for the Royals this season would mark an accomplishment that the organization has not attained since the 1985 season, when they eventually moved on to taking the World Series title. To say that the Royals have been in a rut since achieving the title would be a severe understatement. At first, last seasons record of 86-76 appeared to be an anomaly for a perennial failing organization. However, this seasons performance seems to disprove that belief and show that the Royals may in fact have put their losing inclinations behind them. With the acknowledgment of the Royals recent victorious ways, I sought to dedicate a post to analyzing their 2014 season. Thus, this post will be dedicated to pursuing that exact endeavor.
As you can see in the title, I opted to use the word "legend" when describing this 2014 campaign for the Royals. The reason I utilized this word is because of the statistical variance for this Kansas City club. Typically, if you saw a team was in first place in their division, you would assume that the team would be superior in many statistical categories. However, the Royals prove to be quite the statistical anomaly. I will now explicate my reasoning, via statistics I pulled from MLB.com.
Offense
Team BA: .261 (5th in the MLB)
Team HRs: 89 (Last in the MLB)
Team OBP: .311 (20th in the MLB)
Team SLG: .376 (20th in the MLB)
Team Runs: 579 (16th in the MLB)
Team Steals: 135 (1st in the MLB)
Defense
Team Fielding Percentage: .983 (22nd in the MLB)
Team Errors: 92 (10th most in the MLB)
Pitching
Team ERA: 3.50 (8th in the MLB)
Team WHIP: 1.26 (14th in the MLB)
Team Saves: 48 (4th in the MLB)
As you can discern after a first glance of viewing these key statistics, the Royals are clearly not a superior team. They are well below average in terms of team statistical offense. However, they do have a commendable team batting average and are clearly dominant on the base paths. The SB leader of the Royals is none other than Jarrod Dyson, with a total of 33 swiped bags. Dyson, if you can recollect, is an undervalued player whom I highlighted in an earlier post (Who is Jarrod Dyson? (By: M. Lessard)). Despite both his offensive and defensive prowess, Dyson is yet to assume the role of an everyday starter. I believe that this is an utter outrage, but there is nothing I can do to rectify this situation. After analyzing the team offensive statistics for the Royals, I can acknowledge that they have a superior ability to reach base via base hits and then move pretty much at their own will once they reach base. In terms of team defense, the Royals are absolutely atrocious, despite having the presence of perennial Gold-Glover Alex Gordon on their roster. If there is one aspect of the Royals game that has been their savior, it is their pitching. Team pitching is the only all-around above average aspect of the Royals game. Although, even with some of the best team pitching in the MLB, there has to be another reason as to why the Royals are able to remain persistent in their winning ways. Thus, I decided to delve further into my offensive statistical analysis of the 2014 Royals.
Offense
Team AVG in Games Won: .290 (10th in the MLB)
Team Runs in Games Won: 443 (9th in the MLB)
Team AVG with RISP: .271 (5th in the MLB)
Team RBIs with RISP: 446 (8th in the MLB)
Team AVG for Away Games: .261 (3rd in the MLB)
Team Runs for Away Games: 319 (6th in the MLB)
Team AVG for Home Games: .252 (19th in the MLB)
Team Runs for Home Games: 263 (26th in the MLB)
Home Record: 38-33 (W%= 0.535)
Away Record: 42-32 (W%= 0.562)
Team BA Inning Breakdown:
Through analyzing the statistics above, I am able to distinguish some rationale as to why the Royals are able to accumulate so many wins, with sub par overall offensive and fielding performances. First, typically a team likes to utilize a home field advantage in order to enhance their prospects of winning. However, the Royals do not conform to this normalcy. For the Royals have much better offensive statistics when playing on the road and even have amassed a better record and win percentage when playing in foreign confines.
The next statistical section of discussion is related to the Royals performance in games of which they have won. During their winning endeavors, the Royals rank in the top third for Runs and BA. This insinuates that the Royals score many runs in the games of which they are triumphant. To be precise, they average 5.54 runs per win.
In previous posts, I have made implications toward a concept of clutch hitting in baseball. I still stand by my belief that the teams who execute the most in auspicious offensive scenarios (i.e. with RISP) or when its a necessity (i.e. extra innings), will in turn be the more successful teams. Through the evaluation of the Royals offensive production in these situations, I can make the assessment that they are able to perform well offensively when they most need it. As you can see, the Royals are among the upper echelon in the MLB, in terms of hitting with RISP. Team RISP is seemingly very important for a teams success. If you can recall, in my first post, I illuminated some teams which had top tier RISP hitting. Two of the best RISP hitting teams from the 2013 season were the World Series contenders, the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals. Not only are the Royals able to exploit favorable offensive scenarios, but also possess the uncanny ability to hit in dire situations. During extra innings this season, the Royals have amassed a team batting average of .301.
In recent years, the Royals front office most certainly has done a good job in terms of rebuilding their organization. As long as the continue to justly compensate their young stars and build around them, they should have no difficulty remaining playoff contenders.
Monday, September 8, 2014
Winners and Losers: Assessing the 2014 MLB Mid-Season Trades (Part 1)
Twitter: @Real_TPNB Facebook: The Power of Numbers in Baseball
This season most definitely was not a disappointment in terms of mid-season trades. Unless, of course, you are the fan of a team who received the proverbial "short-end of the stick". For we saw numerable, consummate veterans, along with a bountiful bevy of young talent be subjected to a mid-season team swap. The most notable transactions during this 2014 season include the dealings of Jon Lester, Yoenis Cespedes, David Price, Jeff Samardzija, and most recentlyAdam Dunn. The Red Sox are the most notable sellers of veteran talent during this season. Boston successfully traded four of five starting pitchers from their Opening Day rotation, with Clay Buchholz being the current lone remainder. Another significant headline pertains to the several, veteran-oriented moves that the Oakland Athletics pursued. This season, in terms of their mid-season transactions (or any transactions they make in general for that matter), is quite the anomaly for Billy Beane and the A's. Typically, Beane and the Athletics are not an organization to buy the contracts of high-priced veterans, at any point in time, especially for these seemingly short-term loans. However, they did so this season acquiring the talents of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Adam Dunn, and Jason Hammel. Thus, with the consideration of the large quantity of transactions that transpired during this 2014 MLB campaign, we dedicate this next post series to analyzing some of these key, mid-season trades. The first part will be done myself, in which I will analyze the Jeff Samardzija and Jarred Cosart Deals. Adam will then conclude the series with a second piece broaching the Lester, Price, and Stephen Drew deals.
The Jeff Samardzija Deal
Main Player Received- Oakland Athletics: Jeff Samardzija
Main Players Received- Chicago Cubs: Addison Russell, Billy McKinney
Maintaining this mantra of Oakland Athletics trades, the first transaction I will analyze is the Jeff Samardzija trade. Just to reiterate the breakdown of the trade, the Cubs sent Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's, in return for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily. Russell and McKinney were the A's first round picks from the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively. When analyzing a trade in which prospects are exchanged, it is imperative for one to acknowledge the uncertainty of how a prospect will perform once they reach the Major League level. Thus, we are not be able to make a thorough assessment of the winners and losers for these types of deals, until the prospects receive sufficient playing time in the MLB. With that being said, I will now commence with the analysis for the trade.
Prior to this transaction, Samardzija and Hammel both were integral pitching assets for an underwhelming Cubs team. It seemed inevitable that Samardzija would be dealt this season and he was. For the Cubs this season, Samardzija boasted a 2.83 ERA, while amassing 103 strikeouts and a WAR of 2.0. Hammel, on the other hand, toted a 2.98 ERA, along with accumulating 104 strikeouts and a WAR of 3.1. To say that both these pitchers struggled after the trade, during their time thus far in Oakland, would be a drastic understatement. Post-trade, Samardzija has been the more valuable piece the A's received, despite not performing up to his capabilities. He has earned a 3.57 ERA, along with 62 strikeouts and a WAR of 0.6. As you can see, his performance has tapered significantly, yet he still has managed to be effective for the A's, while pitching in an offensively dominant AL West. However, I can not say that Hammel has even been remotely effective for the Athletics. In his 9 starts for Oakland, Hammel has collected a 4.98 ERA, with 32 strikeouts and -0.4 WAR. Considering the post-transaction yield of the two aforementioned players, at the very best, I would say the A's received mediocre returns and thats stretching it.
Typically, you would see Theo Epstein, the Cubs GM, make transaction like this. During his tenure with the Red Sox, Epstein made a concerted effort to trade away the promising youth of the organization, in return for declining veterans. A change of heart seems to have transpired for Epstein, for he was a big seller this 2014 season. For this trade, the main pieces that were received by the Cubs are youngsters Addison Russell and Billy McKinney. Dan Straily appears to be more of a throw-in/ complimentary piece at this point. As previously mentioned, Russell and McKinney were the 2012 and 2013 first-round picks for the Athletics. Thus far in his minor league career, Russell totes a commendable .300/.379/.522 slashing line. During his minor league career so far, Russell has amassed .440/.313/.583, for his IOR, OTCR, and OPR, respectively. These are all above average figures. For those of you who do not read TPNB regularly, clarification on these statistics can be gained through reading my previous posts. There always is ambiguity in terms of predicting how a prospect will perform once he reaches the Major Leagues. However, after analyzing these statistics for Russell, I believe that he has on path to be an everyday starter in the MLB, with some All-Star potential. Lastly, there is McKinney. For his minor league tenure so far, McKinney has a slashing line of .283/.364/.420. His IOR, OTCR, and OPR are .400/.274/.469 respectively. McKinney has put forth rather average/ slightly-above average statistics thus far in his professional career. After analyzing these statistics, I am inclined to make the projection for McKinney becoming an average starting outfielder in the MLB.
So who received the better returns in this transaction? It is too early to make a solid decision, for there are prospects involved and also we do not know if the A's will make a late playoff run, as they desire to do through having executed this trade. However, I am leaning towards the Cubs being the ultimate winners, considering all the facts.
The Jarred Cosart Deal
Main Player Received- Miami Marlins: Jarred Cosart
Main Player Received- Houston Astros: Colin Moran
Does the name Jarred Cosart sound familiar? Probably not, unless you are fairly well versed in the subject matter of MLB starting pitchers. Cosart, a 24 year-old starter (Former 38th round pick!), has spent the beginning of his career playing down in Houston for a young, rebuilding Astros club. It was much to my surprise to watch this youthful Houston organization do away with a juvenile pitcher like Cosart. However, a transaction was undertaken by the Astros sending Cosart to another developing team, in the Miami Marlins. The entire deal incorporated Cosart, Enrique Hernandez, and minor-leaguer Austin Wates being sent from the Astros to the Marlins, in exchange for the talents of Jake Marisnick, minor-leaguers Colin Moran and Francis Martes, along with a 2015 Compensation Draft Pick. This trade, similarly to the aforementioned Samardzija deal, was prospect-intensive. Thus, also like before, it is impossible to discern who is the immediate winner at this moment. However, I will perform the analysis and make an educated conjecture.
Let me begin with the Analysis for the players which the Miami Marlins received. Well, first off, I can bluntly say that Cosart has been lights out in a Miami uniform. In 6 starts, Cosart has earned a 4-1 record, with a 1.99 ERA. Also, during those 6 starts, he has amassed a WAR of 1.8, in comparison to the 0.6 WAR he accumulated during his time this season with the Astros. Cosarts ERA with the Astros was a 4.41, so it is safe to say that the transition to the Marlins has benefited him greatly. Considering his recent and total career statistics (career ERA of 3.28 and WAR of 5.0), I project Cosart to be a regular starter in the MLB, along with the potential to be a repeating all-star. Cosart has definitely helped bolster an already young, talented rotation that includes the arms of Jose Fernandez (22 years-old) and Henderson Alvarez (24 years-old). The next asset received by the Marlins, utility player Enrique Hernandez, just received his first major league call-up this past July. During his current two month stint in the Majors, Hernandez has totaled a slashing line of .261/.323/.386. Hernandez appears to be on path to possibly be a regular starter in the MLB, but as of his performances in the Minors and recently in the Majors, he seems to be best fit for a utility position player role. The last piece of the trade, outfielder Austin Wates, I project to be an eventual everyday starter for the Marlins. For the duration of his minor league career, Wates has a slashing line of .299/.376/.409. Once again, utilizing my own created statistics, Wates is evaluated at .450/.259/.538 for his IOR, OTCR, and OPR. These are all above average values, hence my prediction for him becoming a regular starter. However, father time is working against Wates right now, for he is already 26 and yet to make his MLB debut.
Now, onto the evaluation of the players received by the Astros. The only player dealt to the Astros who is in the Major Leagues is the 23 year-old, outfielder Jake Marisnick. Marisnick has not performed very well at the Major League level so far in his career, amassing only a mere .207/.249/.259 slashing line. Considering that he is still young and his performance in the minors was above average, I project Marisnick to eventually work his way into an everyday starter role. The focal return which the Astros received comes in the form of Colin Moran. Moran, a 2013 1st-round pick, appears to be a very promising, third base talent climbing through the minor league ranks. While Morans slashing line totals up to above average in all aspects, .297/.346/.408, he has a very average IOR, OTCR, and OPR line of .370/.222/.372. This insinuates that his power numbers and plate discipline are not near where they need to be, in order for him to transcend into a true offensive power. Moran only averages 26 BBs and 5.5 HRs per season, with his season totals increasing from last year to this one. I can acknowledge that Morans contact has been very good and that his potential is still very high. If Moran can continue to develop, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be an everyday starter with all-star caliber. The final two pieces that the Astros received both have a lack of statistics for them. Obviously, the 2015 draft has not happened yet, so the 2015 Compensation Pick that the Astros will receive is unknown and therefore can not be assessed. Then, there is the 18 year-old, pitching prospect Francis Martes. This season was his first complete professional season and he managed to accumulate a total ERA of 4.09. It is still much too early to make a solid projection for Martes.
Pending on Colin Morans development and a 2015 Compensation Pick, the winner of this trade could go either way. Although, as for right now, the apparent winner of this trade would have to be the Marlins through receiving Jarred Cosart and projectable prospect Austin Wates as key assets. I just would like to make one last remark regarding this deal. That being, to make sure to keep an eye on Moran. He has the ability to develop and significantly transcend his game, such as we saw when he matriculated at the University of North Carolina.
This season most definitely was not a disappointment in terms of mid-season trades. Unless, of course, you are the fan of a team who received the proverbial "short-end of the stick". For we saw numerable, consummate veterans, along with a bountiful bevy of young talent be subjected to a mid-season team swap. The most notable transactions during this 2014 season include the dealings of Jon Lester, Yoenis Cespedes, David Price, Jeff Samardzija, and most recentlyAdam Dunn. The Red Sox are the most notable sellers of veteran talent during this season. Boston successfully traded four of five starting pitchers from their Opening Day rotation, with Clay Buchholz being the current lone remainder. Another significant headline pertains to the several, veteran-oriented moves that the Oakland Athletics pursued. This season, in terms of their mid-season transactions (or any transactions they make in general for that matter), is quite the anomaly for Billy Beane and the A's. Typically, Beane and the Athletics are not an organization to buy the contracts of high-priced veterans, at any point in time, especially for these seemingly short-term loans. However, they did so this season acquiring the talents of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Adam Dunn, and Jason Hammel. Thus, with the consideration of the large quantity of transactions that transpired during this 2014 MLB campaign, we dedicate this next post series to analyzing some of these key, mid-season trades. The first part will be done myself, in which I will analyze the Jeff Samardzija and Jarred Cosart Deals. Adam will then conclude the series with a second piece broaching the Lester, Price, and Stephen Drew deals.
The Jeff Samardzija Deal
Main Player Received- Oakland Athletics: Jeff Samardzija
Main Players Received- Chicago Cubs: Addison Russell, Billy McKinney
Maintaining this mantra of Oakland Athletics trades, the first transaction I will analyze is the Jeff Samardzija trade. Just to reiterate the breakdown of the trade, the Cubs sent Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's, in return for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily. Russell and McKinney were the A's first round picks from the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively. When analyzing a trade in which prospects are exchanged, it is imperative for one to acknowledge the uncertainty of how a prospect will perform once they reach the Major League level. Thus, we are not be able to make a thorough assessment of the winners and losers for these types of deals, until the prospects receive sufficient playing time in the MLB. With that being said, I will now commence with the analysis for the trade.
Prior to this transaction, Samardzija and Hammel both were integral pitching assets for an underwhelming Cubs team. It seemed inevitable that Samardzija would be dealt this season and he was. For the Cubs this season, Samardzija boasted a 2.83 ERA, while amassing 103 strikeouts and a WAR of 2.0. Hammel, on the other hand, toted a 2.98 ERA, along with accumulating 104 strikeouts and a WAR of 3.1. To say that both these pitchers struggled after the trade, during their time thus far in Oakland, would be a drastic understatement. Post-trade, Samardzija has been the more valuable piece the A's received, despite not performing up to his capabilities. He has earned a 3.57 ERA, along with 62 strikeouts and a WAR of 0.6. As you can see, his performance has tapered significantly, yet he still has managed to be effective for the A's, while pitching in an offensively dominant AL West. However, I can not say that Hammel has even been remotely effective for the Athletics. In his 9 starts for Oakland, Hammel has collected a 4.98 ERA, with 32 strikeouts and -0.4 WAR. Considering the post-transaction yield of the two aforementioned players, at the very best, I would say the A's received mediocre returns and thats stretching it.
Typically, you would see Theo Epstein, the Cubs GM, make transaction like this. During his tenure with the Red Sox, Epstein made a concerted effort to trade away the promising youth of the organization, in return for declining veterans. A change of heart seems to have transpired for Epstein, for he was a big seller this 2014 season. For this trade, the main pieces that were received by the Cubs are youngsters Addison Russell and Billy McKinney. Dan Straily appears to be more of a throw-in/ complimentary piece at this point. As previously mentioned, Russell and McKinney were the 2012 and 2013 first-round picks for the Athletics. Thus far in his minor league career, Russell totes a commendable .300/.379/.522 slashing line. During his minor league career so far, Russell has amassed .440/.313/.583, for his IOR, OTCR, and OPR, respectively. These are all above average figures. For those of you who do not read TPNB regularly, clarification on these statistics can be gained through reading my previous posts. There always is ambiguity in terms of predicting how a prospect will perform once he reaches the Major Leagues. However, after analyzing these statistics for Russell, I believe that he has on path to be an everyday starter in the MLB, with some All-Star potential. Lastly, there is McKinney. For his minor league tenure so far, McKinney has a slashing line of .283/.364/.420. His IOR, OTCR, and OPR are .400/.274/.469 respectively. McKinney has put forth rather average/ slightly-above average statistics thus far in his professional career. After analyzing these statistics, I am inclined to make the projection for McKinney becoming an average starting outfielder in the MLB.
So who received the better returns in this transaction? It is too early to make a solid decision, for there are prospects involved and also we do not know if the A's will make a late playoff run, as they desire to do through having executed this trade. However, I am leaning towards the Cubs being the ultimate winners, considering all the facts.
The Jarred Cosart Deal
Main Player Received- Miami Marlins: Jarred Cosart
Main Player Received- Houston Astros: Colin Moran
Does the name Jarred Cosart sound familiar? Probably not, unless you are fairly well versed in the subject matter of MLB starting pitchers. Cosart, a 24 year-old starter (Former 38th round pick!), has spent the beginning of his career playing down in Houston for a young, rebuilding Astros club. It was much to my surprise to watch this youthful Houston organization do away with a juvenile pitcher like Cosart. However, a transaction was undertaken by the Astros sending Cosart to another developing team, in the Miami Marlins. The entire deal incorporated Cosart, Enrique Hernandez, and minor-leaguer Austin Wates being sent from the Astros to the Marlins, in exchange for the talents of Jake Marisnick, minor-leaguers Colin Moran and Francis Martes, along with a 2015 Compensation Draft Pick. This trade, similarly to the aforementioned Samardzija deal, was prospect-intensive. Thus, also like before, it is impossible to discern who is the immediate winner at this moment. However, I will perform the analysis and make an educated conjecture.
Let me begin with the Analysis for the players which the Miami Marlins received. Well, first off, I can bluntly say that Cosart has been lights out in a Miami uniform. In 6 starts, Cosart has earned a 4-1 record, with a 1.99 ERA. Also, during those 6 starts, he has amassed a WAR of 1.8, in comparison to the 0.6 WAR he accumulated during his time this season with the Astros. Cosarts ERA with the Astros was a 4.41, so it is safe to say that the transition to the Marlins has benefited him greatly. Considering his recent and total career statistics (career ERA of 3.28 and WAR of 5.0), I project Cosart to be a regular starter in the MLB, along with the potential to be a repeating all-star. Cosart has definitely helped bolster an already young, talented rotation that includes the arms of Jose Fernandez (22 years-old) and Henderson Alvarez (24 years-old). The next asset received by the Marlins, utility player Enrique Hernandez, just received his first major league call-up this past July. During his current two month stint in the Majors, Hernandez has totaled a slashing line of .261/.323/.386. Hernandez appears to be on path to possibly be a regular starter in the MLB, but as of his performances in the Minors and recently in the Majors, he seems to be best fit for a utility position player role. The last piece of the trade, outfielder Austin Wates, I project to be an eventual everyday starter for the Marlins. For the duration of his minor league career, Wates has a slashing line of .299/.376/.409. Once again, utilizing my own created statistics, Wates is evaluated at .450/.259/.538 for his IOR, OTCR, and OPR. These are all above average values, hence my prediction for him becoming a regular starter. However, father time is working against Wates right now, for he is already 26 and yet to make his MLB debut.
Now, onto the evaluation of the players received by the Astros. The only player dealt to the Astros who is in the Major Leagues is the 23 year-old, outfielder Jake Marisnick. Marisnick has not performed very well at the Major League level so far in his career, amassing only a mere .207/.249/.259 slashing line. Considering that he is still young and his performance in the minors was above average, I project Marisnick to eventually work his way into an everyday starter role. The focal return which the Astros received comes in the form of Colin Moran. Moran, a 2013 1st-round pick, appears to be a very promising, third base talent climbing through the minor league ranks. While Morans slashing line totals up to above average in all aspects, .297/.346/.408, he has a very average IOR, OTCR, and OPR line of .370/.222/.372. This insinuates that his power numbers and plate discipline are not near where they need to be, in order for him to transcend into a true offensive power. Moran only averages 26 BBs and 5.5 HRs per season, with his season totals increasing from last year to this one. I can acknowledge that Morans contact has been very good and that his potential is still very high. If Moran can continue to develop, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be an everyday starter with all-star caliber. The final two pieces that the Astros received both have a lack of statistics for them. Obviously, the 2015 draft has not happened yet, so the 2015 Compensation Pick that the Astros will receive is unknown and therefore can not be assessed. Then, there is the 18 year-old, pitching prospect Francis Martes. This season was his first complete professional season and he managed to accumulate a total ERA of 4.09. It is still much too early to make a solid projection for Martes.
Pending on Colin Morans development and a 2015 Compensation Pick, the winner of this trade could go either way. Although, as for right now, the apparent winner of this trade would have to be the Marlins through receiving Jarred Cosart and projectable prospect Austin Wates as key assets. I just would like to make one last remark regarding this deal. That being, to make sure to keep an eye on Moran. He has the ability to develop and significantly transcend his game, such as we saw when he matriculated at the University of North Carolina.
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