At last, Adam and I have concluded the final piece for this power rankings series. This final post incorporates the rankings and evaluations for both the Major League Starting Pitchers and Closing Pitchers. I took the liberty of analyzing the closing pitchers, while Adam delved into the Starters. If you have just the faintest bit of baseball acumen, you should be able to accurately guess who the best Starting Pitcher in the MLB is. However, the same can not be said for the Closer role, for an unexpected name sits atop the list.
Alas, let me begin with my examination of the MLB Closing Pitchers for this 2014 campaign. When one considers the prominent attributes of a closing pitcher, he or she would typically focus upon an overwhelming fastball. Let us be honest, who does not like seeing a pitcher enter the game in the late innings lighting the radar gun up with triple-digits. However, I want to emphasize that, when considering a closing pitcher, an inundating fastball should not be the primary aspect considered. The most important criterion for a closing pitcher, at any level of baseball, is WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched). In the late innings, when the game is up for grabs, you want to have a pitcher on the mound who does not enable many hitters to reach base. With permitting less hitters to reach base, the pitcher will in turn reduce the chances of the opposing team scoring. I understand that what I just iterated is a rudimentary concept, however it seems like many people have an obsession for relief pitchers being hard-throwers. One of the most dominant closing pitchers, for the past couple of years, Koji Uehara, comfortably sits at 88 mph with his fastball, which is below the MLB average speed. Thus, WHIP was one of the three statistics I used for my analysis. Along with WHIP, I utilized the statistics of ERA and Saves within my ranking consideration.
Name
|
ERA
|
SV ▾
|
WHIP
|
ERA Rank
|
SV Rank
|
WHIP Rank
|
Total
|
Huston Street
|
1.2
|
33
|
0.822
|
1
|
7
|
3
|
11
|
Craig Kimbrel
|
1.8
|
37
|
0.92
|
6
|
3
|
8
|
17
|
Koji Uehara
|
1.4
|
26
|
0.78
|
2
|
14
|
2
|
18
|
Jonathan Papelbon
|
1.58
|
29
|
0.857
|
4
|
11
|
4
|
19
|
Greg Holland
|
1.84
|
38
|
1.02
|
7
|
1
|
14
|
22
|
Francisco Rodriguez
|
2.84
|
38
|
0.93
|
19
|
2
|
10
|
31
|
Zach Britton*
|
2.08
|
26
|
0.923
|
9
|
15
|
9
|
33
|
Sean Doolittle*
|
2.39
|
18
|
0.646
|
13
|
20
|
1
|
34
|
Jake McGee*
|
1.45
|
13
|
0.875
|
3
|
26
|
5
|
34
|
David Robertson
|
2.51
|
33
|
1.007
|
14
|
8
|
13
|
35
|
Santiago Casilla
|
1.62
|
10
|
0.902
|
5
|
28
|
6
|
39
|
Mark Melancon
|
2.28
|
22
|
0.935
|
11
|
18
|
11
|
40
|
Aroldis Chapman*
|
2.82
|
26
|
0.913
|
18
|
16
|
7
|
41
|
Glen Perkins*
|
2.58
|
31
|
1.108
|
15
|
9
|
17
|
41
|
Fernando Rodney
|
2.29
|
35
|
1.235
|
12
|
5
|
24
|
41
|
Rafael Soriano
|
2.59
|
29
|
1.048
|
16
|
12
|
15
|
43
|
Cody Allen
|
1.88
|
15
|
0.987
|
8
|
25
|
12
|
45
|
Kenley Jansen
|
2.86
|
34
|
1.132
|
20
|
6
|
19
|
45
|
Trevor Rosenthal
|
3.61
|
36
|
1.448
|
25
|
4
|
27
|
56
|
LaTroy Hawkins
|
2.79
|
18
|
1.143
|
17
|
21
|
21
|
59
|
Casey Janssen
|
3.24
|
19
|
1.11
|
23
|
19
|
18
|
60
|
Addison Reed
|
3.83
|
29
|
1.135
|
27
|
13
|
20
|
60
|
Steve Cishek
|
3.78
|
31
|
1.242
|
26
|
10
|
25
|
61
|
Joakim Soria
|
3.58
|
17
|
1.088
|
24
|
24
|
16
|
64
|
Jake Petricka
|
2.26
|
9
|
1.324
|
10
|
29
|
26
|
65
|
Hector Rondon
|
3.17
|
18
|
1.221
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
66
|
Chad Qualls
|
3.21
|
13
|
1.19
|
22
|
27
|
22
|
71
|
Joe Nathan
|
5.2
|
25
|
1.578
|
29
|
17
|
29
|
75
|
Jenrry Mejia
|
4.04
|
18
|
1.526
|
28
|
23
|
28
|
79
|
As you can see, the list above contains the statistics for the top 29 closers in the league. The data was extracted at the beginning of last week, so there may be some current discrepancies, due to the games played that were played in the mean time. However, let me now begin with the rankings:
Best ERA: Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Best WHIP: Sean Doolittle, Oakland Atheltics
Most Saves: Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals and Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Closer to Watch: Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Relief Pitcher Who Most Deserves to Close: Pat Neshek, St. Louis Cardinals
2014 Closing Pitcher Top 5 Rankings:
1) Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels- Street, a former AL Rookie of the Year, has proved himself this season to once again be a dominant force in the closer role. The trade from the Padres to the Angels has enabled Street to finally be exposed to a winning atmosphere. Street is another pitcher whose velocity is not overwhelming, he frequents a 90ish mph sinker, however he still maintains a successful track record within this closer role.
2) Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves- Now, if a dominant repertoire is what you want to see, then Kimbrel is the man you want to watch. With a high-90s fastball and slider that is pretty much untouchable, Kimbrel has proven himself as one of the MLBs best closer in this ERA. Like Huston Street, Kimbrel is also a former Rookie of the Year winner. Kimbrel has been an All-Star every season that he has been in the closer role for. Barring any injuries, I believe that Kimbrel will be able to pitch his way into Cooperstown, and find himself next to the games greatest known closer, Mariano Rivera.
3) Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox- As I mentioned above, Uehara does not have overpowering stuff. However, I will admit that he does have a splitter that is downright devastating for hitters. Ueharas impeccable control is what has helped him establish himself as one of the games best closers. Last season, during the Red Sox victorious season, Uehara posted a 0.565 WHIP. This season, Uehara has showed no signs of fatigue, as he has been a bright spot for an underwhelming Red Sox squad and he even earned his first All-Star Appearance.
4) Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies- Despite playing for a struggling Phillies team, Papelbon has retained his reputation as one of the games top closers. The five-time all star has been an asset that the Phillies have been wanting to move this year, however he has drawn little interest from teams thus far. I personally believe the Tigers could use him at the back end of their bullpen, considering the struggles their closers have had.
5) Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals- Since inheriting the closer role for the Royals back in 2012, Holland has been an absolute force coming out of the pen. During his time as a closer, Holland has amassed 107 career saves. I believe that Holland has helped turn around what used to be a failing Royals club and will continue to be a productive closer for many years to come.
Thus concludes the power rankings for the 2014 Closers. Now we transition to Adam, who will provide the insight and rankings for 2014 Starters.
I’m going to do this in
ascending order for two reasons; 1) the best two pitchers in baseball aren’t
even a discussion, if you don’t know who they are then you’re clearly not being
objective and need to face reality, your favorite player is not the best in the
game, he’s just not, so get over it, and 2) because I’ll have more subjective
reasoning the further I get in my choices. (If you think my omission of your
“guy” is unfounded, cool, form an argument in the comments and I’ll address it
in another piece)
Also, in these pieces
it’s hard to address “the best” without context, so for this piece I’m
addressing the starting pitchers as guys that you’d want to build a rotation
around who have balanced consistent achievement with the likelihood of sustained
success. Verlander (a bad couple years) and Wainwright (age, he’s 32) are
absent and later in my explanation I list some younger guys that might be on
this list with another good season or two.
On to the stats and
general crap about this season....
If we sort exclusively by
WAR this season the top 5 is as follows: Hernandez, Kluber, Kershaw &
Lester (Tied), and Phil Hughes. So first off, no one thinks Hughes belongs on
that list, even at #5, so we’re not using single season WAR to establish
anything. Second, Kluber is 2nd. I can’t let that stand and still
respect myself. He’s having an exceptional year with a 2.46 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and
1.08 WHIP, but with that said he’s 28, has a career ERA of 3.46 and last year
was his first full season. He’ll likely be a serviceable starter, but it’s
doubtful he maintains this type of success.
Sorting by ERA, Kluber
ends up in 5th. (Actual order: Kershaw, Sale, Hernandez, Cueto,
Kluber) Getting closer to his value, but he’s still not in my top 5 for this
season and going forward… Let’s be honest. In all likelihood you don’t even
know who he is, even better, I’ve wasted the better part of two paragraphs
explaining exactly why I’m omitting a guy who by most metrics is top 5 this
year and you don’t even care.
Lastly, there are a few names that
are absent, but are worth your attention in the future. These names being Garrett Richards, Jose
Fernandez, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka, and Matt Harvey. All are
young, have a limited sample (some due to injury), and will likely be top of
the rotation guys for years to come (Archer being somewhat of an outlier in
this instance).
And now on to the
rankings…
1
1) Clayton
Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Cy Young)
For his
career he’s only finished two of seven seasons with a WAR under 5 and those seasons were when
the Dodgers were horrible. For a quick assessment of WAR, a 5 win player is a
superstar, he’s 26 and already had two seasons over 6, and he’s well on his way
this year to matching or exceeding that value year. Career 2.51 ERA, he’s just
ok, it’s not like he’s Sandy Koufax or anything… ohh, wait, Koufax was a career
2.76, so maybe, just maybe, Kershaw will be the best to ever wear Dodger blue and their only paying him like 30 million a year.
2) Felix
Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (AL Cy Young)
We’ll
call him 1b to Kershaw’s 1a. Along with a career 3.09 ERA, this season makes his 9th
full year in the majors and he’s only 28 which could mean we’re in the middle
of his prime and his years after 30 could be pretty mediocre, or that could
mean we are witnessing the most durable pitcher not named Nolan Ryan. Like
Kershaw, he’s predominantly an upper-five win player per WAR, his first couple
seasons weren’t great, but he’s played his entire career in Seattle who has
been pretty mediocre, even in their best seasons as of late. In any case, his best
pitches are all off-speed and he still throws a mid-90’s heater. He’s a beast.
3) Chris
Sale, Chicago White Sox
He has a
quirky delivery which adds to his deception but may ultimately be his downfall
as usually is the case (see Ubaldo Jiminez). But for now, he’s a mid-low 90’s
guy, throws three pitches well as shown by not having a major discrepancy in
selection (51.4%, 29.6%, 19%: Fastball, Slider, Changeup last year). Career
2.76 ERA, this is his third full season and he’s dealing with a 2.08 ERA. 25
years old, he’s going to be good for a while.
4) David
Price, Detroit Tigers
Allllmost
29 years old, this is his fifth full season, with his first being the worst by
far. Since then, he’s been good posting a career 3.16 ERA. With the help of
Evan Longoria, he made the Rays relevant in the AL East. As I outlined in my
previous post, I’m happy to see him leave the division. In 2012 he posted a
2.56 ERA in the East… that’s a pretty big accomplishment in and of itself and
he just keeps being consistent. A couple minor dings along the way, he’s going
to get paid after next season. The only other scenario is that the Tigers
splurge this offseason and sign Scherzer and Price to very similar, very
lucrative deals and avoid their staggered departure altogether. If they fail to
sign Scherzer, the likelihood that Price gets paid in 2016 probably goes up
exponentially.
5) Jon
Lester, Oakland Athletics (Please come back, please)
30 years
old makes him the oldest on the list. Shunning players like Cueto (always
injured), Strasburg (Frequently injured), Zimmerman (Inconsistent), Verlander
(I hate him, he’s dating Kate Upton), and any number of other players for
varying reasons. My argument stands largely on his playoff performance and his
longevity. He continues to produce, and aside from the last few games that’s
been in the AL East. He’s faced the gnarliest of Yankees teams, the scrappiest
of Rays teams, and for one entire season the animal we used to know as Chris
Davis and the Orioles. This year he’s in a contract year and boasts a 5.5 WAR, 2.53 ERA, along with striking out a little more than one batter an inning. He’s going to continue to
be good well into his 30’s because unlike guys like Aroldis Chapman who just
“spits hot fiyahh” as the great rapper Dy-lan put it, Lester paints corners, works
through the jams, and makes it work for him. He survived the onslaught in
Boston, I’m sure he has an occasional beer and fried chicken thigh (I’m a leg
man personally), but he’s resilient. Maybe next year there will be no reason to
put him in here, but for now, he’s a solid #5 in a league with a lot of young
talent, a lot of injuries, and even more one and done superstars.
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