Young Guns

Having talented youth in an organization can be a very invaluable asset.  Being able to have a young, productive player in your line-up for an extended period of time can be crucial to the success of your team.  If this player is, for the lack of a better phrase, "a spark plug to your line-up", he may be even more significant than you know.  Thus, I dedicate this next post to evaluating the 2014, offensive rookie class.

For my evaluation, I will only consider rookies with at least 60 at-bats, in order to maintain a decent sized data set.  Within the statistical comparisons provided, I will incorporate my statistics which I created and discussed in "The Inaugural Post".  These statistics being, the Individual Offensive Rating (IOR), Offensive Team Contribution Rating (OTCR), and the IOR/OTCR ratio.  The players are ranked according to the IOR/OTCR ratio, going in descending order.

Player	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	IOR	OTCR	IOR/OTCR
Hamilton, B.	52	2	14	24	11	0.437	0.387	1.129
D'arnaud, T.	23	3	9	1	16	0.367	0.349	1.052
Jones, J.	36	0	5	7	7	0.400	0.382	1.047
Bogaerts, X.	66	5	17	2	26	0.451	0.439	1.029
Wong, K	34	1	15	8	10	0.412	0.429	0.961
Pinto, J.	30	7	16	0	20	0.430	0.456	0.941
Almonte, A.	21	1	8	3	6	0.302	0.323	0.933
Owings, C.	55	5	18	6	12	0.382	0.412	0.928
Medica, T.	16	3	7	0	4	0.377	0.423	0.892
Semien, M.	36	3	18	3	16	0.352	0.396	0.887
Holt, B.	42	1	13	3	9	0.433	0.496	0.873
Bradley Jr., J.	38	1	21	4	19	0.354	0.408	0.870
Springer, G.	48	12	36	1	22	0.473	0.553	0.855
Solarte, Y.	60	6	28	0	23	0.438	0.514	0.851
Castellanos, N.	52	5	21	1	12	0.368	0.435	0.845
Schoop, J.	43	5	19	0	7	0.316	0.377	0.837
Abreu, J.	55	19	50	0	13	0.466	0.578	0.806
Choice, M.	30	6	24	1	16	0.351	0.444	0.790
Flores, W.	15	1	7	0	3	0.317	0.403	0.786
Olt, M.	21	9	24	0	14	0.329	0.426	0.772
Cron, C.	28	3	15	0	3	0.347	0.454	0.764
Odor, R.	24	2	14	0	2	0.377	0.567	0.665

  

To begin my analysis of this data, I first would like to discredit the players who have both very low OTCR and IOR ratings.  By low, I mean that both of these two values for the player are below .400.  I do this because they might have high IOR/OTCR ratio rating because they were able to muster up a diminutive IOR that just happens to be greater than their even lower OTCR. These players who I am taking out of consideration have their names highlighted in yellow.

Billy Hamilton, the Cincinnati Reds outfielder, sits atop the list of eligible players.  His overwhelming 1.129 IOR/OTCR rating insinuates that he is an individual offensive generator.  Hamilton has the capability of getting his teams offense started.  Another highly rated player, who I believe would be great to build a team around, is Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox.

However, just because a player has a lower IOR/OTCR ratio does not mean that they are a lesser player.  For example, look at the players George Springer and Jose Abreu.  I believe that both of these players are phenomenal young stars.  I do believe that they both will produce better IOR/OTCR ratings by the conclusion of the season.  Especially, George Springer because he has very good speed on the base paths, as can be seen from his minor league stolen base statistics.  Once he starts swiping bases like I know he can, his IOR/OTCR ratio will increase significantly, pushing him to perennial all-star levels.  Abreu, on the other hand, has a problem that stems from his lack of walks.  Through 52 games played, he only has 13 walks.  His walk per game ratio is 1:4, which translates to .25 walks per game.  Like I was saying, both Abreu and Springer are very talented and promising young players, but at this moment they are performing like great complimentary players.  They both do have phenomenal IOR and OTCR ratings, which favor well for them.

For example, take again into consideration Jose Abreu.  A great player, who as of right now seems to be a really good complimentary player in the White Sox line-up.  If he was the "spark plug" of this line-up and you removed him from the line-up for an extended period of time, you would expect the White Sox to have a worse winning percentage than when he was in the line-up.  Jose Abreu has missed a total of 14 games this season and the record of the White Sox during that span is 8-6, which totals to a win percentage of 57%.  As of today, the White Sox have an overall record of 33-33, meaning that with Abreu in the line-up their record is 25-27.  This record translates to a winning percentage of 48%.

Neither Billy Hamilton, nor Xander Bogaerts have missed enough games this season yet, for me to make a fair assessment of win percentage with and without them in the line-up.  However, I do wish to make an assessment of win percentage with and without a offensive instigator in the line-up.  If you can recall (or even just scroll down to my first post), looking at the 2013 IOR/OTCR ratios, Jacoby Ellsbury ranked 8th with a 1.104.  Everyone knows that the Red Sox won the World Series in 2013 and had one of the most potent offenses in the league.  During the offseason, as you should already know, Ellsbury signed a deal with the New York Yankees, thus ending his career with the Red Sox.  After the removal of Ellsbury from the Red Sox line-up, meaning during this 2014 season, the Red Sox began to struggle significantly.  They currently are 29-36, with an underwhelming winning percentage of .446.  The Red Sox have only scored 254 runs this season, ranking the 2nd worst in the AL this season.  Through this day last season, 06/12/13, the Red Sox had a record of 41-26, with a winning percentage of .612.  Also, the Red Sox by this day last year had scored 351 runs, ranking not only the best in the AL, but also in the entire MLB.  I realize that the Red Sox have had numerous injuries this year and that their players are not quite performing to their best levels, but after comparing these numbers, I would have to conclude that Jacoby Ellsbury might have had a significant impact within the Red Sox line-up.  The Red Sox possibly should have put resigning Ellsbury as one of their more important offseason priorities.

*NOTE THAT ALL STATISTICS AND DATA, WITH THE EXCLUSION OF IOR AND OTCR, ARE NOT MY OWN AND I AM NOT CLAIMING THEM TO BE.  THEY ARE THE PROPERTY OF MLB.COM*