Saturday, June 14, 2014

A Possible Relation between Offensive and Defensive Statistics

During my playing days, my father would always tell me that "Walks (defensively speaking) and Errors will kill you".  Of course, he said this in reference to the outcome of a game.  With consideration of his past advice and my forward statistical thinking, I decided to tamper with some current statistics in an attempt to correlate a players offensive and defensive abilities.  Keep in mind that none of my statistics are perfected, but are in beta (development) per say.  In my research, I constructed a statistic, which I refer to as Net Runs (NR).  Net Runs is based off of Bill James' statistic, Runs Created.  Runs Created is a statistic used to estimate the amount of runs a player or team created (http://sabr.org/sabermetrics/statistics).  The equation is as follows:

Runs Created= (((Total Bases) * (Hits + Walks))/(At-Bats + Walks))

Taking Runs Created into consideration, I sought to incorporate an additional concept factoring in the estimated amount of runs that a player costs his team on defense.  I figured that typically with a fielding error, the amount of bases the defense concedes is one.  Thus, four errors should equate to one run.  All of the proceeding aspects being taken in consideration, the equation for Net Runs is as follows:

Net Runs= Runs Created - (Errors/ 4)

Now, I am going to analyze this statistic with current players.  For my data set, I will use the top 50 offensive players in the MLB, as ranked by their Runs Created statistic, from this 2014 season.  The first column of the chart shows the players Runs Created rank.  The second column of the chart shows the players Net Runs rank.


RC Rank
NR Rank
Player
RC 
Errors
Err./4
Net Runs
1
1
Troy Tulowitzki
70
2
0.5
69.5
2
2
Andrew McCutchen
63
4
1
62
3
3
Jose Bautista
61
2
0.5
60.5
4
4
Giancarlo Stanton
59
3
0.75
58.25
6
5
Yasiel Puig
56
0
0
56
5
6
Paul Goldschmidt
56
6
1.5
54.5
7
7
Mike Trout
55
2
0.5
54.5
8
8
Nelson Cruz
53
0
0
53
9
9
Carlos Gomez
52
2
0.5
51.5
10
10
Michael Brantley
50
1
0.25
49.75
13
11
Victor Martinez
49
3
0.75
48.25
11
12
Miguel Cabrera
49
4
1
48
12
13
Edwin Encarnacion
49
6
1.5
47.5
14
14
Jonathan Lucroy
48
2
0.5
47.5
15
15
Anthony Rizzo
48
4
1
47
17
16
Hunter Pence
47
3
0.75
46.25
18
17
Justin Upton
47
4
1
46
20
18
Melky Cabrera
46
0
0
46
19
19
Jose Altuve
46
2
0.5
45.5
16
20
Lonnie Chisenhall
47
9
2.25
44.75
23
21
Brandon Moss
45
2
0.5
44.5
22
22
Brian Dozier
45
4
1
44
24
23
Charlie Blackmon
44
2
0.5
43.5
26
24
Chase Utley
44
4
1
43
25
25
Todd Frazier
44
6
1.5
42.5
28
26
Freddie Freeman
43
3
0.75
42.25
30
27
Nick Markakis
42
0
0
42
31
28
David Ortiz
42
0
0
42
21
29
Josh Donaldson
45
13
3.25
41.75
29
30
Daniel Murphy
43
7
1.75
41.25
27
31
Matt Carpenter
43
8
2
41
32
32
Alex Gordon
41
0
0
41
33
33
Adam Jones
41
3
0.75
40.25
34
34
Jayson Werth
41
4
1
40
36
35
Jacoby Ellsbury
40
1
0.25
39.75
39
36
Mike Morse
40
1
0.25
39.75
35
37
Robinson Cano
40
3
0.75
39.25
37
38
Dexter Fowler
40
3
0.75
39.25
38
39
Justin Morneau
40
3
0.75
39.25
46
40
Neil Walker
39
1
0.25
38.75
47
41
Christian Yelich
39
2
0.5
38.5
40
42
Jose Abreu
39
3
0.75
38.25
42
43
Shin-Soo Choo
39
3
0.75
38.25
49
44
Seth Smith
38
0
0
38
41
45
Xander Bogaerts
39
6
1.5
37.5
43
46
Alexei Ramirez
39
6
1.5
37.5
45
47
Anthony Rendon
39
7
1.75
37.25
48
48
Adam LaRoche
38
3
0.75
37.25
50
49
Brett Gardner
37
0
0
37
44
50
Hanley Ramirez
39
9
2.25
36.75

I took the liberty of highlighting the players that have the largest gaps between their RC and NR ranks.  For the players with large positive changes (rank movement of at least 3 places), their names are highlighted in green.  Then for the players with large negative changes, their names are highlighted in red.  The greatest positive movement belongs to Christian Yelich, an outfielder for the Miami Marlins.  Yelich moved up a total of 6 spots.  Now, looking at the converse situation, Josh Donaldson, Third Baseman for the Oakland Athletics, owns the largest skid.  Donaldson descended a total of 8 spots.

I understand that the probability of committing errors varies with each position.  I also acknowledge that some of these players are designated hitters and have no risk of committing errors.  This statistic is just an attempt to try to combine the offensive and defensive statistics of a player.  I will work to try and refine this statistic for the future.  A factor which I wish to consider for Net Runs in the future is figuring out the exact amount of bases that a defensive players error actually yields.  I could even make the statistic more efficient through adjusting the equation so that the equation would produce the players net runs per game.

Net Runs Per Game= (Runs Created - (Errors/ 4)) / Games Played

*NOTE THAT ALL OF THE STATISTICS, WITH THE EXCLUSION OF NET RUNS, ARE NOT MINE.  THEY BELONG TO THEIR RIGHTFUL CREATORS.  ALL DATA I USED TO PERFORM MY CALCULATIONS IS COMPILED FROM BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM.*

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