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This season most definitely was not a disappointment in terms of mid-season trades. Unless, of course, you are the fan of a team who received the proverbial "short-end of the stick". For we saw numerable, consummate veterans, along with a bountiful bevy of young talent be subjected to a mid-season team swap. The most notable transactions during this 2014 season include the dealings of Jon Lester, Yoenis Cespedes, David Price, Jeff Samardzija, and most recentlyAdam Dunn. The Red Sox are the most notable sellers of veteran talent during this season. Boston successfully traded four of five starting pitchers from their Opening Day rotation, with Clay Buchholz being the current lone remainder. Another significant headline pertains to the several, veteran-oriented moves that the Oakland Athletics pursued. This season, in terms of their mid-season transactions (or any transactions they make in general for that matter), is quite the anomaly for Billy Beane and the A's. Typically, Beane and the Athletics are not an organization to buy the contracts of high-priced veterans, at any point in time, especially for these seemingly short-term loans. However, they did so this season acquiring the talents of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Adam Dunn, and Jason Hammel. Thus, with the consideration of the large quantity of transactions that transpired during this 2014 MLB campaign, we dedicate this next post series to analyzing some of these key, mid-season trades. The first part will be done myself, in which I will analyze the Jeff Samardzija and Jarred Cosart Deals. Adam will then conclude the series with a second piece broaching the Lester, Price, and Stephen Drew deals.
The Jeff Samardzija Deal
Main Player Received- Oakland Athletics: Jeff Samardzija
Main Players Received- Chicago Cubs: Addison Russell, Billy McKinney
Maintaining this mantra of Oakland Athletics trades, the first transaction I will analyze is the Jeff Samardzija trade. Just to reiterate the breakdown of the trade, the Cubs sent Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's, in return for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily. Russell and McKinney were the A's first round picks from the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively. When analyzing a trade in which prospects are exchanged, it is imperative for one to acknowledge the uncertainty of how a prospect will perform once they reach the Major League level. Thus, we are not be able to make a thorough assessment of the winners and losers for these types of deals, until the prospects receive sufficient playing time in the MLB. With that being said, I will now commence with the analysis for the trade.
Prior to this transaction, Samardzija and Hammel both were integral pitching assets for an underwhelming Cubs team. It seemed inevitable that Samardzija would be dealt this season and he was. For the Cubs this season, Samardzija boasted a 2.83 ERA, while amassing 103 strikeouts and a WAR of 2.0. Hammel, on the other hand, toted a 2.98 ERA, along with accumulating 104 strikeouts and a WAR of 3.1. To say that both these pitchers struggled after the trade, during their time thus far in Oakland, would be a drastic understatement. Post-trade, Samardzija has been the more valuable piece the A's received, despite not performing up to his capabilities. He has earned a 3.57 ERA, along with 62 strikeouts and a WAR of 0.6. As you can see, his performance has tapered significantly, yet he still has managed to be effective for the A's, while pitching in an offensively dominant AL West. However, I can not say that Hammel has even been remotely effective for the Athletics. In his 9 starts for Oakland, Hammel has collected a 4.98 ERA, with 32 strikeouts and -0.4 WAR. Considering the post-transaction yield of the two aforementioned players, at the very best, I would say the A's received mediocre returns and thats stretching it.
Typically, you would see Theo Epstein, the Cubs GM, make transaction like this. During his tenure with the Red Sox, Epstein made a concerted effort to trade away the promising youth of the organization, in return for declining veterans. A change of heart seems to have transpired for Epstein, for he was a big seller this 2014 season. For this trade, the main pieces that were received by the Cubs are youngsters Addison Russell and Billy McKinney. Dan Straily appears to be more of a throw-in/ complimentary piece at this point. As previously mentioned, Russell and McKinney were the 2012 and 2013 first-round picks for the Athletics. Thus far in his minor league career, Russell totes a commendable .300/.379/.522 slashing line. During his minor league career so far, Russell has amassed .440/.313/.583, for his IOR, OTCR, and OPR, respectively. These are all above average figures. For those of you who do not read TPNB regularly, clarification on these statistics can be gained through reading my previous posts. There always is ambiguity in terms of predicting how a prospect will perform once he reaches the Major Leagues. However, after analyzing these statistics for Russell, I believe that he has on path to be an everyday starter in the MLB, with some All-Star potential. Lastly, there is McKinney. For his minor league tenure so far, McKinney has a slashing line of .283/.364/.420. His IOR, OTCR, and OPR are .400/.274/.469 respectively. McKinney has put forth rather average/ slightly-above average statistics thus far in his professional career. After analyzing these statistics, I am inclined to make the projection for McKinney becoming an average starting outfielder in the MLB.
So who received the better returns in this transaction? It is too early to make a solid decision, for there are prospects involved and also we do not know if the A's will make a late playoff run, as they desire to do through having executed this trade. However, I am leaning towards the Cubs being the ultimate winners, considering all the facts.
The Jarred Cosart Deal
Main Player Received- Miami Marlins: Jarred Cosart
Main Player Received- Houston Astros: Colin Moran
Does the name Jarred Cosart sound familiar? Probably not, unless you are fairly well versed in the subject matter of MLB starting pitchers. Cosart, a 24 year-old starter (Former 38th round pick!), has spent the beginning of his career playing down in Houston for a young, rebuilding Astros club. It was much to my surprise to watch this youthful Houston organization do away with a juvenile pitcher like Cosart. However, a transaction was undertaken by the Astros sending Cosart to another developing team, in the Miami Marlins. The entire deal incorporated Cosart, Enrique Hernandez, and minor-leaguer Austin Wates being sent from the Astros to the Marlins, in exchange for the talents of Jake Marisnick, minor-leaguers Colin Moran and Francis Martes, along with a 2015 Compensation Draft Pick. This trade, similarly to the aforementioned Samardzija deal, was prospect-intensive. Thus, also like before, it is impossible to discern who is the immediate winner at this moment. However, I will perform the analysis and make an educated conjecture.
Let me begin with the Analysis for the players which the Miami Marlins received. Well, first off, I can bluntly say that Cosart has been lights out in a Miami uniform. In 6 starts, Cosart has earned a 4-1 record, with a 1.99 ERA. Also, during those 6 starts, he has amassed a WAR of 1.8, in comparison to the 0.6 WAR he accumulated during his time this season with the Astros. Cosarts ERA with the Astros was a 4.41, so it is safe to say that the transition to the Marlins has benefited him greatly. Considering his recent and total career statistics (career ERA of 3.28 and WAR of 5.0), I project Cosart to be a regular starter in the MLB, along with the potential to be a repeating all-star. Cosart has definitely helped bolster an already young, talented rotation that includes the arms of Jose Fernandez (22 years-old) and Henderson Alvarez (24 years-old). The next asset received by the Marlins, utility player Enrique Hernandez, just received his first major league call-up this past July. During his current two month stint in the Majors, Hernandez has totaled a slashing line of .261/.323/.386. Hernandez appears to be on path to possibly be a regular starter in the MLB, but as of his performances in the Minors and recently in the Majors, he seems to be best fit for a utility position player role. The last piece of the trade, outfielder Austin Wates, I project to be an eventual everyday starter for the Marlins. For the duration of his minor league career, Wates has a slashing line of .299/.376/.409. Once again, utilizing my own created statistics, Wates is evaluated at .450/.259/.538 for his IOR, OTCR, and OPR. These are all above average values, hence my prediction for him becoming a regular starter. However, father time is working against Wates right now, for he is already 26 and yet to make his MLB debut.
Now, onto the evaluation of the players received by the Astros. The only player dealt to the Astros who is in the Major Leagues is the 23 year-old, outfielder Jake Marisnick. Marisnick has not performed very well at the Major League level so far in his career, amassing only a mere .207/.249/.259 slashing line. Considering that he is still young and his performance in the minors was above average, I project Marisnick to eventually work his way into an everyday starter role. The focal return which the Astros received comes in the form of Colin Moran. Moran, a 2013 1st-round pick, appears to be a very promising, third base talent climbing through the minor league ranks. While Morans slashing line totals up to above average in all aspects, .297/.346/.408, he has a very average IOR, OTCR, and OPR line of .370/.222/.372. This insinuates that his power numbers and plate discipline are not near where they need to be, in order for him to transcend into a true offensive power. Moran only averages 26 BBs and 5.5 HRs per season, with his season totals increasing from last year to this one. I can acknowledge that Morans contact has been very good and that his potential is still very high. If Moran can continue to develop, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be an everyday starter with all-star caliber. The final two pieces that the Astros received both have a lack of statistics for them. Obviously, the 2015 draft has not happened yet, so the 2015 Compensation Pick that the Astros will receive is unknown and therefore can not be assessed. Then, there is the 18 year-old, pitching prospect Francis Martes. This season was his first complete professional season and he managed to accumulate a total ERA of 4.09. It is still much too early to make a solid projection for Martes.
Pending on Colin Morans development and a 2015 Compensation Pick, the winner of this trade could go either way. Although, as for right now, the apparent winner of this trade would have to be the Marlins through receiving Jarred Cosart and projectable prospect Austin Wates as key assets. I just would like to make one last remark regarding this deal. That being, to make sure to keep an eye on Moran. He has the ability to develop and significantly transcend his game, such as we saw when he matriculated at the University of North Carolina.
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