I will now commence with the analysis of the Kansas City Royals. With 11 games remaining on their schedule, the Royals tote an 83-68 record. As I alluded to earlier, the Tigers have a mere 0.5 game lead on the Royals in the AL Central. However, the Royals have had great success post all-star game, leading me to make the prediction that they will at least secure a Wild Card spot.
Win Percentage
|
0.5625
|
Games Remaining
|
11
|
Predicted Wins
|
6.1875
|
Final Record
|
89-73
|
The graph above displays the win percentages by month for the Royals throughout this 2014 season. As you can see, I combined March and April because many teams only played one game at the tail end of March. This graph contains some very positive information for the Royals pertaining to their season outcome. There is an upward linear trend in the data, meaning that the Royals overall win percentage has increased as the their season progressed. If they do make it to October, as I firmly believe they will, the Royals should have some success, considering the trends in the data. With the recognition of their 0.563 win percentage for this month, I project the Royals to win 6 of their last 11 games. If they do win these 6 games, then they will almost certainly secure a playoff berth.
Now, I will move onto a team who was scorching hot prior to the all-star break, but as of recently has struggled immensely. This team being the Oakland Athletics. Coming into the night, the A's have an 83-68 record, similar to the Royals. However, as I insinuated above, unlike the Royals, the A's have had a losing trend as of lately. It projects as if they will not make the playoffs, which is a shame considering the trades they executed and prospects/star players (Yoenis Cespedes) they lost as a result.
Win Percentage
|
0.333333333
|
Games Remaining
|
11
|
Predicted Wins Left
|
3.666666667
|
Final Record
|
87-75
|
As I did for the Royals, I made a graph displaying the win percentage by month for the Athletics. There are many distinct discrepancies between the Royals graph and the A's graph. However, the most prominent difference is the downward trend. This shows that as the season progressed, the Athletics persisted to win less games. With the consideration of their trends and current win percentage for September, I project the A's to win 4 out of their last 11 games.
Lastly, I will analyze the Seattle Mariners race for a Wild Card position. As of today, the Mariners have amassed an 81-70 record, with 11 games remaining on their schedule. Like the Royals, the Mariners have a winning inclination in this later half of the season.
Win Percentage
|
0.5
|
Games Remaining
|
11
|
Predicted Wins Left
|
5.5
|
Final Record
|
87-75
|
As you can probably discern, the Mariners have an upward trend for their win percentage. Considering their current win percentage for September, I predict that the Mariners will win 6 of their last 11 games.
You may have noticed that both the Athletics and the Mariners project to have 87-75 final records. If the season ended in that fashion, there would be a one game playoff for the the final wild card position. In that scenario, I would favor the Mariners to advance to postseason play. However, I do wish to examine the remaining schedule for each team, in order to assess the practicality of this scenario materializing.
Mariners: Angels * 4, Blue Jays * 4, Astros * 3
Athletics: Angels * 3, Phillies * 3, Rangers * 5
The Athletics clearly have the easier remaining schedule. Thus, despite their recent losing propensity, the Athletics should be able to oust the Mariners. However, mark my words, do not sleep on the Mariners.
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