Sunday, August 3, 2014

Power Rankings: MLB Middle Infielders


After each contributing our own individual pieces recently, Adam and I sought to collaborate on another combination piece.  Amidst our engaged discussion for possible topics, an idea struck me like a David Price pitch so frequently does to David Ortiz's back side.   "Why not construct a post concentrating on the power rankings of the players for each position?" I asked myself.  Thus, I brought up the concept to Adam and he agreed to contribute.  In an effort to make the posts more reader friendly (shorter posts), we will not be analyzing and ranking players for every position within this piece.  We have decided to break the power rankings article into three, possibly four different posts.  For the inaugural piece of the position power ranking series, we decided to evaluate Middle Infielders.  I took the liberty of analyzing the MLB second basemen, while Adam delved into the shortstops.

Without further ado, I will now provide the analysis and power rankings for the second basemen.  Due to fantasy baseball, when baseball fans conceptualize power rankings for a position, they typically only consider the offensive attributes for a power ranking scenario.  However, I want the rankings to be indicative of the best overall second basemen.  Therefore, I will use a combination of offensive and defensive statistics in order to concoct the ranking.  For the offensive aspect of the analysis I will implement my statistic of IOR (Explanation available in The Inaugural Post), in order to evaluate the players individual offensive abilities.  Then for the defensive measurements, I will utilize the statistic of dWAR, in order to determine the defensive value of the player.  All of the statistics I used for the analysis are from this 2014 MLB season.

IOR Rank
dWAR Rank
IOR Rank + dWAR Rank
Name
IOR
dWAR
12
2
14
DJ LeMahieu
0.414
1.6
13
1
14
Dustin Pedroia
0.401
1.8
2
13
15
Robinson Cano*
0.496
0.2
4
11
15
Brian Dozier
0.473
0.4
6
9
15
Chase Utley*
0.449
0.5
8
7
15
Howie Kendrick
0.430
0.6
1
15
16
Jose Altuve
0.515
0
5
12
17
Ben Zobrist#
0.467
0.3
14
3
17
Ian Kinsler
0.387
1.5
3
16
19
Dee Gordon*
0.495
-0.2
16
6
22
Brian Roberts#
0.369
0.7
17
8
25
Omar Infante
0.368
0.6
20
5
25
Gordon Beckham
0.321
0.7
21
4
25
Jonathan Schoop
0.292
1.1
7
21
28
Neil Walker#
0.443
-0.9
9
19
28
Jason Kipnis*
0.430
-0.6
10
18
28
Scooter Gennett*
0.425
-0.5
18
10
28
Brandon Phillips
0.359
0.5
15
14
29
Danny Espinosa#
0.376
0.2
11
20
31
Daniel Murphy*
0.416
-0.8
19
17
36
Aaron Hill
0.336
-0.5

The preceding chart contains the statistics for the top 21 second basemen in the league, in terms of at-bats this season.  All of these players have 200 at-bats or more.  This figure was chosen in order to avoid any statistical bias.  In order to facilitate the analysis and rankings, I ranked each player from 1-21 in terms of both IOR and dWAR.  Since I was looking for the best overall second basemen for the the power rankings, I combined both the IOR and dWAR rankings in order to form the third column of the chart above.  For this combination value, the lower the value, the better.  With all of that being said lets move on to the rankings.

Best Offensive Second Baseman: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Best Defensive Second Baseman: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

Overall Power Rankings:

1) Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
2) DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies
3) Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
4) Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
5) Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies

Prior to the statistical analysis, I though for sure that Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon would be among the top 5 overall.  However, since I do not get to watch these two players in action that much, I was naive in terms of their defensive capabilities.  Altuve and Gordon have dWARs of 0 and -0.2, respectively.  These are not good ratings, hence why they plummeted out of the overall, top 5 power ranking.  The only player in the power ranking that comes as a surprise to me is DJ Lemahieu of the Colorado Rockies.  I knew Lemahieu was beginning to emerge as presence among second basemen, however I did not know that it was to this transcending extent.  For the most part, the rankings are in exact order of the list above.  The only exception takes place for the first and second ranks.  Pedroia and LeMahieu both have an IOR Rank + dWAR Rank of 14.  Although, Pedroia has the better dWAR and Lemahieu has the better IOR.  My final decision was based upon the fact that Pedroia has a greater dWAR by 0.2, which to me outweighs the 0.013 difference in IOR, of which LeMahieu leads.

Now we move onto the analysis and power rankings for MLB shortstops, which will be broached by Adam.

I’m addressing shortstops, my favorite position to watch, and arguably the most demanding defensive position.  Of all the players I’ve watched from the stands Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki have been my favorites. The issue at hand becomes how to properly categorize top talent. Is WAR enough? Do you weigh defensive performance higher since shortstop is possibly the most active position in the field? For my analysis we’ll be using this year’s WAR since it’s clear cut, uses defensive range numbers(UZR), base running, and offensive statistics to give a uniform means of equating value.

Let’s look at the top 15:
Name
Team
WAR
1
Troy Tulowitzki
Rockies
5.1
2
Jhonny Peralta
Cardinals
3.5
3
Erick Aybar
Angels
3.1
4
Jimmy Rollins
Phillies
2.8
5
Alexei Ramirez
White Sox
2.5
6
Hanley Ramirez
Dodgers
2.5
7
Ian Desmond
Nationals
2.1
8
Starlin Castro
Cubs
2
9
J.J. Hardy
Orioles
2
10
Alcides Escobar
Royals
1.9
11
Jose Reyes
Blue Jays
1.8
12
Brandon Crawford
Giants
1.6
13
Andrelton Simmons
Braves
1.6
14
Elvis Andrus
Rangers
1.5
15
Jed Lowrie
Athletics
1.3

5. Alexei Ramirez
Started hot, cooled as of late, his season has lacked consistency overall but he’s definitely exceeding what most people expected. Some consider his display this year “realized potential” other’s a “flash in the pan” so to speak. The likelihood he repeats as a top 5 SS in years to come is unlikely with Simmons, Escobar, Castro, and Desmond on the outside of the top 5 looking in and significant prospects such as Carlos Correa and Javier Baez on the way up from the minors. He’ll continue to be top 10, especially if he remains in front of Jose Abreu in the White Sox order.

4. Jimmy Rollins
He’s had a solid career and always produces despite being one injury away from assisted living and prune smoothies. He probably will have another 3 years left of acceptable production but he’ll drop off significantly next year (in my opinion) and be someone the Phillies will look to trade at the deadline to a team seeking a veteran presence. He’s been good, not great, 2.8 WAR isn’t outlandish, but above average and he’s been able to amass numbers on a team going nowhere.

3. Erick Aybar
He’s had 4 years of WAR over 3, a career .277 hitter; he’s always been a decent shortstop but never great offensively. At 30 years old, he’s probably on his way downhill but has always been an average contributor on a pretty good team and will likely remain an Angel; I’m pegging him most likely to drop out of the top 5 by the end of the year.

2. Jhonny Peralta
Always a quality shortstop, Peralta has played for 3 teams and had a couple good years, namely last, when he was connected to PED use and suspended. Currently the Cards are favored to get to the World Series and Peralta will play a key role in that pursuit given his defense is top 3 in DRS and UZR, which justifies his presence in the top 5 given his mediocre average and offensive production.

1. Troy Tulowitzki
I’m not wasting anyone’s time. He’s the best player in the National League this year. Probably the best overall shortstop of the last 10 years (Sorry Derek Jeter), and if he stays healthy we should see him in the Hall of Fame.

Shortstop is a finicky position to say the least; year to year the fluctuations in top 5-10 are vast given the high rate of injury and turn over. Every team is looking for the next great one to build their team around and there haven’t been many as of late. Bogaerts was supposed to be that guy for the Red Sox but has been a little underwhelming, Profar was slated to be the next great defensive shortstop in Texas and has been atrocious at the plate, these examples represent how taxing the middle infield is, and how desperate teams are to find another Jeter, Tulowitzki, or Ripken.

In closing, you can see that both Shortstop and Second base are incredibly difficult positions to pick a top 5 for. You might assume that certain players are the best because of offense or defense but when you examine how atrocious they might be in one capacity the other is effectively null and void. Most surprising to me is that both Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins appear top 5 which inherently demonstrates a fair amount of value in team chemistry given that many plays they are relying on each other for a positive outcome.. The duo has been together for a long time and together they make a great middle infield, unfortunately for them the rest of the Phil’s line-up is one step above AAA, but just barely.

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