The 2014 MLB World Series

This MLB postseason has most certainly proven itself to be a time of upsets.  We have seen both the American and National Leagues lowest seeds, the Royals and the Giants respectively, persevere to the World Series, through much adversity.  This World Series berth solidifies the third trip to the Fall Classic for the Giants, in as many postseasons for them.  In addition, the Giants will be vying for their third World Series ring during that precise time span.  If postseason success in recent years is your basis for projecting a winner for the World Series this year, then the San Francisco Giants are your team.  However, the concepts of success and efficiency during this postseason are in favor of the Royals.  The Royals have set an MLB Postseason record with 8 consecutive victories thus far, leading to a perfect 8-0 start.  I had a feeling that that Royals would make a strong postseason push, take a look at the post The Legend of the 2014 Kansas City Royals. Similarly to the Giants, the Royals won the World Series during their last postseason trip.  Although, this victory for the Royals occurred back in 1985, when a current front office member, George Brett, was their franchise player.  In light of the commencement of the 2014 MLB World Series, I will dedicate this post to assessing a statistical comparison of these two teams, in order to project a World Series victor.

The statistics I will be implementing for my analyses are extracted from MLB.com and they only take into consideration the current postseason statistics.

Offense:  

	AVG	SB	Runs	HR	OBP
San Francisco	0.259	3	41	5	.313
Kansas City	0.244	13	42	8	.331

Defense:

	Field. %	Errors	CS %
San Francisco	0.992	3	25
Kansas City	0.991	3	25

Starting Pitching:

	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	AVG
San Francisco	2.4	0.99	63.2	51	0.207
Kansas City	3.8	1.2	45	33	0.232

 Relief Pitching:

	ERA	WHIP	Saves	K	AVG
San Francisco	1.78	0.88	5	30	0.164
Kansas City	1.8	1	6	36	0.179

As you can discern from viewing the charts above, the two teams have relatively similar statistics thus far into postseason.  The largest statistical discrepancies can been seen within the Stolen Bases and Starting Pitching categories.  For every category above (Offense, Defense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching), I highlighted the team with the statistical advantage in green.  For each individual aspect, within the categories, the team with the greater statistic, has their number bolded.

Headlined by a dominant MadBum, the performances of the San Francisco Giants starting pitchers this postseason have greatly eclipsed those of their World Series counterparts on the Kansas City Royals.  Baseball analysts and avid fans alike have been boasting about the stalwart bullpen of the Royals for quite some time now.  This bullpen incorporates the talents of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland, who have effectively proved their values in the late innings.  However, despite not receiving the same level of praise, the San Francisco Giants bullpen actually has the statistical advantage.  The Kansas City Royals have outright recorded the better offensive statistics throughout the playoffs thus far.  Terrific, yet unexpected, power numbers along with their speed on the base paths have proved to be too much to handle, even for the American Leagues best.  The last category, team defense, verifies just how statistically similar these teams are.  The only aspect in which the two teams vary is fielding percentage, which the Giants edge the Royals in by .001.  Due to the infinitesimal differences for this category, I consider the teams even.  However, if I was to select a team that has a better defense, then I am inclined to opt the Royals.  The Royals have more Gold Glove talent that stems from Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and several other notable contenders.

I believe that (statistically verified too, for the most part) the Royals have the offensive and defensive advantages, meanwhile the Giants have the pitching edge.  In terms of coaching, I believe that the Giants have the upper-hand.  Bruce Bochy has amassed 3 pennants and 2 World Series rings during his tenure, while Ned Yost is in the midst of only his first postseason appearance.  Everything considered thus far, the Giants and Royals are neck-and-neck on paper.  Although, I am inclined to favor the Giants as the winners for this 2014 World Series.  The majority of the Giants players have numerable World Series visits under their belts, meaning that they know how to handle themselves at this stage of the postseason.  Also, I believe that Buster Posey will be able to encumber the Royals base stealing propensities.  Posey has a 32% career caught stealing percentage, meanwhile none of the three teams, whom the Royals have played this postseason, have had catchers with caught stealing percentages remotely close to that.  The last key factor for the series is actually tonights game.  I believe that Madison Bumgarner should be able to deal the Royals their first loss of this postseason.  Being undefeated, the Royals have not had to face the task of being resilient after a loss.  With the pressure from a first loss, the Royals postseason very well could escalate to a brief end.  However, if the Royals are able to muster up enough runs to beat MadBum tonight, then they might have a fighting chance at a World Series ring.

The 2014 American League Wild Card Race

With the conclusion of the 2014 MLB campaign winding down, there are three teams that transcend the rest in the AL Wild Card Race.  These teams being the Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Seattle Mariners.  The Detroit Tigers could possibly be thrown in this mix due to their infinitesimal lead in the AL Central, over the Royals.  However, I am opting to only analyze the teams actually vying for a wild card playoff berth, as of 9/18/2014.  Thus, this post is dedicated to assessing the 2014 Wild Card race and making conjectures as to who will advance into postseason play.

I will now commence with the analysis of the Kansas City Royals.  With 11 games remaining on their schedule, the Royals tote an 83-68 record.  As I alluded to earlier, the Tigers have a mere 0.5 game lead on the Royals in the AL Central.  However, the Royals have had great success post all-star game, leading me to make the prediction that they will at least secure a Wild Card spot.

Win Percentage	0.5625
Games Remaining	11
Predicted Wins	6.1875
Final Record	89-73

The graph above displays the win percentages by month for the Royals throughout this 2014 season.  As you can see, I combined March and April because many teams only played one game at the tail end of March.  This graph contains some very positive information for the Royals pertaining to their season outcome.  There is an upward linear trend in the data, meaning that the Royals overall win percentage has increased as the their season progressed.  If they do make it to October, as I firmly believe they will, the Royals should have some success, considering the trends in the data.  With the recognition of their 0.563 win percentage for this month, I project the Royals to win 6 of their last 11 games.  If they do win these 6 games, then they will almost certainly secure a playoff berth.

Now, I will move onto a team who was scorching hot prior to the all-star break, but as of recently has struggled immensely.  This team being the Oakland Athletics.  Coming into the night, the A's have an 83-68 record, similar to the Royals.  However, as I insinuated above, unlike the Royals, the A's have had a losing trend as of lately.  It projects as if they will not make the playoffs, which is a shame considering the trades they executed and prospects/star players (Yoenis Cespedes) they lost as a result.

Win Percentage	0.333333333
Games Remaining	11
Predicted Wins Left	3.666666667
Final Record	87-75

As I did for the Royals, I made a graph displaying the win percentage by month for the Athletics.  There are many distinct discrepancies between the Royals graph and the A's graph.  However, the most prominent difference is the downward trend.  This shows that as the season progressed, the Athletics persisted to win less games.  With the consideration of their trends and current win percentage for September, I project the A's to win 4 out of their last 11 games.

Lastly, I will analyze the Seattle Mariners race for a Wild Card position.  As of today, the Mariners have amassed an 81-70 record, with 11 games remaining on their schedule.  Like the Royals, the Mariners have a winning inclination in this later half of the season.

Win Percentage	0.5
Games Remaining	11
Predicted Wins Left	5.5
Final Record	87-75

As you can probably discern, the Mariners have an upward trend for their win percentage.  Considering their current win percentage for September, I predict that the Mariners will win 6 of their last 11 games.

You may have noticed that both the Athletics and the Mariners project to have 87-75 final records.  If the season ended in that fashion, there would be a one game playoff for the the final wild card position.  In that scenario, I would favor the Mariners to advance to postseason play.  However, I do wish to examine the remaining schedule for each team, in order to assess the practicality of this scenario materializing.

Mariners: Angels * 4, Blue Jays * 4, Astros * 3

Athletics: Angels * 3, Phillies * 3, Rangers * 5

The Athletics clearly have the easier remaining schedule.  Thus, despite their recent losing propensity, the Athletics should be able to oust the Mariners.  However, mark my words, do not sleep on the Mariners.