The Postseason: Game 2 (PIT vs. SF)

To say that the first game of the Postseason was exhilarating would be a drastic understatement.  A fan could not have asked for a more entertaining game to commence the postseason with.  I do wish to dedicate this next post to analyzing tonights game between the Giants and Pirates, however I want to recap last nights contest first.

In case you were busy or decided to retire for the night when the A's took a 7-3 lead, I regret to inform you that you missed a riveting playoff game.  The Royals managed to surmount several A's leads during the game, before they finally managed to walk-off in the 12th via a Salvador Perez  RBI hit.  If for any reason until this point you have been skeptical of my analytical and/or baseball acumen, then last nights game should significantly alter your views of me.  I am not trying to come off as pompous or arrogant, rather than I am trying to verify my worth. How does last nights game corroborate my knowledge of baseball analysis? Let me elaborate:

1)  Who did I predict to win?  If you can recall, in The Postseason: Game 1 (KC vs. OAK), I predicted that despite the pitching matchup favoring the A's, the Royals would be victorious.  For the in-depth analysis and explication, feel free to click on the link above.  Although, Ned Yost did appear to attempt to sabotage the Royals chances of winning, when he chose Yordano Ventura out of the bullpen to face Brandon Moss.  Moss (A left-handed batter) already hit a home run that night against right-handed pitching and proceeded to repeat that feat against another right-handed pitcher in Ventura, giving the A's a 5-3 lead.

2)  Jarrod Dyson.   How many times have I made reference to Jarrod Dyson being an integral asset for the Royals success?  (Who is Jarrod Dyson? (By: M. Lessard) I mean I even wrote an entire post explaining why he is debatably the most undervalued player in the game.  Despite, per usual, not getting the start last night, Dyson managed to impact the game significantly.  In the 9th inning, down by 1 run, Dyson was selected to pinch run for Josh Willingham.  Dyson advanced to second on a sac bunt, then promptly stole third base.  Through advancing himself into this favorable position, Dyson was able to score the game-tying run and force extra innings.

3)  Kansas City's speed and timely hitting.  The Royals once again utilized their best attributes of timely hitting and speed to overcome the A's.  They managed to steal a total of 7 bases during this game, significantly bettering their chances of winning.  Once again the Royals hit well when they needed it the most, in extra-innings.  During the regular season the Royals managed to hit well in extra-innings and in so doing, creating an auspicious probability of winning.  The full analysis can be seen in The Legend of the 2014 Kansas City Royals.

Enough of recapitulating last nights game, I will now begin with my analysis and projections for tonights game between the Giants and Pirates.  During the regular season, the Pirates managed to best the Giants in four of the six games they played.  This gives the Pirates a .667 win percentage against the Giants (66.7% chance they will win tonight).  However, just like in the previous post I wish to examine the stating pitchers and offenses, in order to make a more precise projection.

Madison Bumgarner- Overall: (18-10, 2.98)  2014 Against the Pirates: (0-1, 11.25)  Career Against the Pirates: (1-3, 3.24)

Edinson Volquez- Overall: (13-7, 3.04)  2014 Against the Giants: (Did not pitch against the Giants this season)  Career Against the Giants: (2-2, 5.72)

Giants Team Offense- Overall: (.255, 665 Runs, 4.1 Runs/Game)  Against the Pirates: (3.83 Runs/Game)

Pirates Team Offense- Overall: (.259, 682 Runs, 4.21 Runs/Game)  Against the Giants: (4.83 Runs/Game)

All the aforementioned statistical evidence heavily weighs toward the Pirates being the victors of this matchup.  However, there is one last piece of evidence I want to bring about, that being the Giants recent success in the Postseason.  In the past two postseasons they have participated in, the Giants have managed to win the World Series.  With the consideration of this fact, along with having the more dominant pitcher, in Madison Bumgarner, on the mound, I project the Giants to upset the Pirates tonight.

The 2014 American League Wild Card Race

With the conclusion of the 2014 MLB campaign winding down, there are three teams that transcend the rest in the AL Wild Card Race.  These teams being the Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Seattle Mariners.  The Detroit Tigers could possibly be thrown in this mix due to their infinitesimal lead in the AL Central, over the Royals.  However, I am opting to only analyze the teams actually vying for a wild card playoff berth, as of 9/18/2014.  Thus, this post is dedicated to assessing the 2014 Wild Card race and making conjectures as to who will advance into postseason play.

I will now commence with the analysis of the Kansas City Royals.  With 11 games remaining on their schedule, the Royals tote an 83-68 record.  As I alluded to earlier, the Tigers have a mere 0.5 game lead on the Royals in the AL Central.  However, the Royals have had great success post all-star game, leading me to make the prediction that they will at least secure a Wild Card spot.

Win Percentage	0.5625
Games Remaining	11
Predicted Wins	6.1875
Final Record	89-73

The graph above displays the win percentages by month for the Royals throughout this 2014 season.  As you can see, I combined March and April because many teams only played one game at the tail end of March.  This graph contains some very positive information for the Royals pertaining to their season outcome.  There is an upward linear trend in the data, meaning that the Royals overall win percentage has increased as the their season progressed.  If they do make it to October, as I firmly believe they will, the Royals should have some success, considering the trends in the data.  With the recognition of their 0.563 win percentage for this month, I project the Royals to win 6 of their last 11 games.  If they do win these 6 games, then they will almost certainly secure a playoff berth.

Now, I will move onto a team who was scorching hot prior to the all-star break, but as of recently has struggled immensely.  This team being the Oakland Athletics.  Coming into the night, the A's have an 83-68 record, similar to the Royals.  However, as I insinuated above, unlike the Royals, the A's have had a losing trend as of lately.  It projects as if they will not make the playoffs, which is a shame considering the trades they executed and prospects/star players (Yoenis Cespedes) they lost as a result.

Win Percentage	0.333333333
Games Remaining	11
Predicted Wins Left	3.666666667
Final Record	87-75

As I did for the Royals, I made a graph displaying the win percentage by month for the Athletics.  There are many distinct discrepancies between the Royals graph and the A's graph.  However, the most prominent difference is the downward trend.  This shows that as the season progressed, the Athletics persisted to win less games.  With the consideration of their trends and current win percentage for September, I project the A's to win 4 out of their last 11 games.

Lastly, I will analyze the Seattle Mariners race for a Wild Card position.  As of today, the Mariners have amassed an 81-70 record, with 11 games remaining on their schedule.  Like the Royals, the Mariners have a winning inclination in this later half of the season.

Win Percentage	0.5
Games Remaining	11
Predicted Wins Left	5.5
Final Record	87-75

As you can probably discern, the Mariners have an upward trend for their win percentage.  Considering their current win percentage for September, I predict that the Mariners will win 6 of their last 11 games.

You may have noticed that both the Athletics and the Mariners project to have 87-75 final records.  If the season ended in that fashion, there would be a one game playoff for the the final wild card position.  In that scenario, I would favor the Mariners to advance to postseason play.  However, I do wish to examine the remaining schedule for each team, in order to assess the practicality of this scenario materializing.

Mariners: Angels * 4, Blue Jays * 4, Astros * 3

Athletics: Angels * 3, Phillies * 3, Rangers * 5

The Athletics clearly have the easier remaining schedule.  Thus, despite their recent losing propensity, the Athletics should be able to oust the Mariners.  However, mark my words, do not sleep on the Mariners.