The 2014 MLB World Series

This MLB postseason has most certainly proven itself to be a time of upsets.  We have seen both the American and National Leagues lowest seeds, the Royals and the Giants respectively, persevere to the World Series, through much adversity.  This World Series berth solidifies the third trip to the Fall Classic for the Giants, in as many postseasons for them.  In addition, the Giants will be vying for their third World Series ring during that precise time span.  If postseason success in recent years is your basis for projecting a winner for the World Series this year, then the San Francisco Giants are your team.  However, the concepts of success and efficiency during this postseason are in favor of the Royals.  The Royals have set an MLB Postseason record with 8 consecutive victories thus far, leading to a perfect 8-0 start.  I had a feeling that that Royals would make a strong postseason push, take a look at the post The Legend of the 2014 Kansas City Royals. Similarly to the Giants, the Royals won the World Series during their last postseason trip.  Although, this victory for the Royals occurred back in 1985, when a current front office member, George Brett, was their franchise player.  In light of the commencement of the 2014 MLB World Series, I will dedicate this post to assessing a statistical comparison of these two teams, in order to project a World Series victor.

The statistics I will be implementing for my analyses are extracted from MLB.com and they only take into consideration the current postseason statistics.

Offense:  

	AVG	SB	Runs	HR	OBP
San Francisco	0.259	3	41	5	.313
Kansas City	0.244	13	42	8	.331

Defense:

	Field. %	Errors	CS %
San Francisco	0.992	3	25
Kansas City	0.991	3	25

Starting Pitching:

	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	AVG
San Francisco	2.4	0.99	63.2	51	0.207
Kansas City	3.8	1.2	45	33	0.232

 Relief Pitching:

	ERA	WHIP	Saves	K	AVG
San Francisco	1.78	0.88	5	30	0.164
Kansas City	1.8	1	6	36	0.179

As you can discern from viewing the charts above, the two teams have relatively similar statistics thus far into postseason.  The largest statistical discrepancies can been seen within the Stolen Bases and Starting Pitching categories.  For every category above (Offense, Defense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching), I highlighted the team with the statistical advantage in green.  For each individual aspect, within the categories, the team with the greater statistic, has their number bolded.

Headlined by a dominant MadBum, the performances of the San Francisco Giants starting pitchers this postseason have greatly eclipsed those of their World Series counterparts on the Kansas City Royals.  Baseball analysts and avid fans alike have been boasting about the stalwart bullpen of the Royals for quite some time now.  This bullpen incorporates the talents of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland, who have effectively proved their values in the late innings.  However, despite not receiving the same level of praise, the San Francisco Giants bullpen actually has the statistical advantage.  The Kansas City Royals have outright recorded the better offensive statistics throughout the playoffs thus far.  Terrific, yet unexpected, power numbers along with their speed on the base paths have proved to be too much to handle, even for the American Leagues best.  The last category, team defense, verifies just how statistically similar these teams are.  The only aspect in which the two teams vary is fielding percentage, which the Giants edge the Royals in by .001.  Due to the infinitesimal differences for this category, I consider the teams even.  However, if I was to select a team that has a better defense, then I am inclined to opt the Royals.  The Royals have more Gold Glove talent that stems from Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and several other notable contenders.

I believe that (statistically verified too, for the most part) the Royals have the offensive and defensive advantages, meanwhile the Giants have the pitching edge.  In terms of coaching, I believe that the Giants have the upper-hand.  Bruce Bochy has amassed 3 pennants and 2 World Series rings during his tenure, while Ned Yost is in the midst of only his first postseason appearance.  Everything considered thus far, the Giants and Royals are neck-and-neck on paper.  Although, I am inclined to favor the Giants as the winners for this 2014 World Series.  The majority of the Giants players have numerable World Series visits under their belts, meaning that they know how to handle themselves at this stage of the postseason.  Also, I believe that Buster Posey will be able to encumber the Royals base stealing propensities.  Posey has a 32% career caught stealing percentage, meanwhile none of the three teams, whom the Royals have played this postseason, have had catchers with caught stealing percentages remotely close to that.  The last key factor for the series is actually tonights game.  I believe that Madison Bumgarner should be able to deal the Royals their first loss of this postseason.  Being undefeated, the Royals have not had to face the task of being resilient after a loss.  With the pressure from a first loss, the Royals postseason very well could escalate to a brief end.  However, if the Royals are able to muster up enough runs to beat MadBum tonight, then they might have a fighting chance at a World Series ring.

The Importance of Game 1

I can honestly say that the 2014 MLB Postseason thus far has most definitely elicited much emotion not only from myself, but also the majority of fans. For we saw the MLB record for longest postseason game get shattered by the 18-inning marathon between the Giants and Nationals.  We have seen both the American League and National League top seeds, the LA Angels and the Washington Nationals, respectively, get eliminated.  As a matter of fact, this postseason has been very favorable towards all of the lower seeds in each series, with the exception of the Detroit Tigers who were the subject of elimination via the Baltimore Orioles.  Thus far, the Royals and the Orioles have advanced to the American League championship, meanwhile the Giants and the Cardinals have advanced to the National League championship.  All of these teams won the 1st games of their respective division series, en route to their eventual series victories.  Winning the 1st game of a postseason series, at first glance, appears to be imperative for a teams procession past that round.  Thus, with the consideration of the importance of winning the 1st game within a playoff series, I dedicate this next post to evaluating that precise concept.

	Gm 1 Victories by series Winners	Possible Series
2013	6	7	85.7%
2012	4	7	57.1%
2011	5	7	71.4%
2010	6	7	85.7%
2009	6	7	85.7%
2008	6	7	85.7%
2007	7	7	100.0%

*  Note that the series which are utilized in the calculations above do not incorporate one-game wild card match-ups.  It is obvious that whoever wins these types of games will advance to the next round.  Thus, including them would only skew both the data and overall probability.

The statistics, of which I have provided above, examine all playoff series since 2007.  This data significantly corroborates the belief that winning the first game of a playoff series greatly enhances a teams probability of winning.  For in every single year, with the exception of 2012, at least five of seven playoff series were won by teams that won game one of the respective series.  Overall, with examining the given data from the preceding seven postseasons, teams that win the first game of a series have, on average, an 81.6% chance of eventually winning the series.

So what exactly does this percentage convey and how does it pertain to this year?  Well, as I iterated in the first paragraph, during this 2014 postseason, every team that has won the first game of a series so far, has proceeded to win the entire series.  Thus, that gives a perfect 4-for-4 efficiency.  Statistically speaking, with the acknowledgement of the 81.6% success rate I derived from the data of the previous seven postseasons, there projects to be one instance in the remaining three series in which the winner of a game one will not progress to win the series.  We will see in due time if this statistical projection holds, or if a statistical anomaly is in the works.

The Postseason: Game 2 (PIT vs. SF)

To say that the first game of the Postseason was exhilarating would be a drastic understatement.  A fan could not have asked for a more entertaining game to commence the postseason with.  I do wish to dedicate this next post to analyzing tonights game between the Giants and Pirates, however I want to recap last nights contest first.

In case you were busy or decided to retire for the night when the A's took a 7-3 lead, I regret to inform you that you missed a riveting playoff game.  The Royals managed to surmount several A's leads during the game, before they finally managed to walk-off in the 12th via a Salvador Perez  RBI hit.  If for any reason until this point you have been skeptical of my analytical and/or baseball acumen, then last nights game should significantly alter your views of me.  I am not trying to come off as pompous or arrogant, rather than I am trying to verify my worth. How does last nights game corroborate my knowledge of baseball analysis? Let me elaborate:

1)  Who did I predict to win?  If you can recall, in The Postseason: Game 1 (KC vs. OAK), I predicted that despite the pitching matchup favoring the A's, the Royals would be victorious.  For the in-depth analysis and explication, feel free to click on the link above.  Although, Ned Yost did appear to attempt to sabotage the Royals chances of winning, when he chose Yordano Ventura out of the bullpen to face Brandon Moss.  Moss (A left-handed batter) already hit a home run that night against right-handed pitching and proceeded to repeat that feat against another right-handed pitcher in Ventura, giving the A's a 5-3 lead.

2)  Jarrod Dyson.   How many times have I made reference to Jarrod Dyson being an integral asset for the Royals success?  (Who is Jarrod Dyson? (By: M. Lessard) I mean I even wrote an entire post explaining why he is debatably the most undervalued player in the game.  Despite, per usual, not getting the start last night, Dyson managed to impact the game significantly.  In the 9th inning, down by 1 run, Dyson was selected to pinch run for Josh Willingham.  Dyson advanced to second on a sac bunt, then promptly stole third base.  Through advancing himself into this favorable position, Dyson was able to score the game-tying run and force extra innings.

3)  Kansas City's speed and timely hitting.  The Royals once again utilized their best attributes of timely hitting and speed to overcome the A's.  They managed to steal a total of 7 bases during this game, significantly bettering their chances of winning.  Once again the Royals hit well when they needed it the most, in extra-innings.  During the regular season the Royals managed to hit well in extra-innings and in so doing, creating an auspicious probability of winning.  The full analysis can be seen in The Legend of the 2014 Kansas City Royals.

Enough of recapitulating last nights game, I will now begin with my analysis and projections for tonights game between the Giants and Pirates.  During the regular season, the Pirates managed to best the Giants in four of the six games they played.  This gives the Pirates a .667 win percentage against the Giants (66.7% chance they will win tonight).  However, just like in the previous post I wish to examine the stating pitchers and offenses, in order to make a more precise projection.

Madison Bumgarner- Overall: (18-10, 2.98)  2014 Against the Pirates: (0-1, 11.25)  Career Against the Pirates: (1-3, 3.24)

Edinson Volquez- Overall: (13-7, 3.04)  2014 Against the Giants: (Did not pitch against the Giants this season)  Career Against the Giants: (2-2, 5.72)

Giants Team Offense- Overall: (.255, 665 Runs, 4.1 Runs/Game)  Against the Pirates: (3.83 Runs/Game)

Pirates Team Offense- Overall: (.259, 682 Runs, 4.21 Runs/Game)  Against the Giants: (4.83 Runs/Game)

All the aforementioned statistical evidence heavily weighs toward the Pirates being the victors of this matchup.  However, there is one last piece of evidence I want to bring about, that being the Giants recent success in the Postseason.  In the past two postseasons they have participated in, the Giants have managed to win the World Series.  With the consideration of this fact, along with having the more dominant pitcher, in Madison Bumgarner, on the mound, I project the Giants to upset the Pirates tonight.