Individual Production Rating

I personally want to apologize for the recent hiatus between my posts, for I pursued some much needed rest.  With that being said, I continue my analysis posts with an introduction piece for a new statistic that I have been working on, Individual Production Rating (IPR).  This statistic may be one for serious deliberation in the baseball statistical analysis realm, for it combines and considers both a players offensive and defensive abilities.  Setting aside any bias I might have due to this statistic being my own, I firmly believe that IPR can give WAR a run for its money.  However, due to having not figured out a proper weighting, I can only use IPR to compare players of the same position.  IPR is measured on a per-game basis.  Not only does IPR combine both offensive and defensive production, but also it takes into consideration a players negative statistics (i.e. Errors committed, Strikeouts, GIDP, etc...).  I do not wish to reveal the equation for two reasons.  First, as I iterated above, the weighting is not perfected.  Second, IPR could become a very valuable statistic for player evaluation and projection, thus I do not want to have my idea stolen.

The following is a sample of IPR.  These are the 2014 season IPR ratings for some of the MLBs premier second basemen:

Jose Altuve (HOU)- 6.81
Dustin Pedroia (BOS)- 6.44
Robinson Cano (SEA)- 6.31
Ian Kinsler (DET)- 6.22
Brian Dozier (MIN)- 6.17
D.J. LeMahieu (COL)- 5.63

As you can see, Jose Altuve has the highest IPR.  This comes with no surprise, considering the 2014 campaign he put forth.  One reason why I firmly believe there is a high potential for this statistic is the fact that Dustin Pedroia ranks higher than Robinson Cano.  Everyone knows that Cano is the better hitter, maybe not by a whole lot, but just enough so that people would mistakingly credit him as a better overall player.  Many people mainly judge and compare players purely on their offensive abilities.  However, with IPR and its incorporation of defense, Pedroia gains the recognition he deserves, that being he is the overall better second baseman, in comparison with Cano.  As I suspected too, the difference between their ratings is negligible, showing that they are very comparable.

The Importance of Game 1

I can honestly say that the 2014 MLB Postseason thus far has most definitely elicited much emotion not only from myself, but also the majority of fans. For we saw the MLB record for longest postseason game get shattered by the 18-inning marathon between the Giants and Nationals.  We have seen both the American League and National League top seeds, the LA Angels and the Washington Nationals, respectively, get eliminated.  As a matter of fact, this postseason has been very favorable towards all of the lower seeds in each series, with the exception of the Detroit Tigers who were the subject of elimination via the Baltimore Orioles.  Thus far, the Royals and the Orioles have advanced to the American League championship, meanwhile the Giants and the Cardinals have advanced to the National League championship.  All of these teams won the 1st games of their respective division series, en route to their eventual series victories.  Winning the 1st game of a postseason series, at first glance, appears to be imperative for a teams procession past that round.  Thus, with the consideration of the importance of winning the 1st game within a playoff series, I dedicate this next post to evaluating that precise concept.

	Gm 1 Victories by series Winners	Possible Series
2013	6	7	85.7%
2012	4	7	57.1%
2011	5	7	71.4%
2010	6	7	85.7%
2009	6	7	85.7%
2008	6	7	85.7%
2007	7	7	100.0%

*  Note that the series which are utilized in the calculations above do not incorporate one-game wild card match-ups.  It is obvious that whoever wins these types of games will advance to the next round.  Thus, including them would only skew both the data and overall probability.

The statistics, of which I have provided above, examine all playoff series since 2007.  This data significantly corroborates the belief that winning the first game of a playoff series greatly enhances a teams probability of winning.  For in every single year, with the exception of 2012, at least five of seven playoff series were won by teams that won game one of the respective series.  Overall, with examining the given data from the preceding seven postseasons, teams that win the first game of a series have, on average, an 81.6% chance of eventually winning the series.

So what exactly does this percentage convey and how does it pertain to this year?  Well, as I iterated in the first paragraph, during this 2014 postseason, every team that has won the first game of a series so far, has proceeded to win the entire series.  Thus, that gives a perfect 4-for-4 efficiency.  Statistically speaking, with the acknowledgement of the 81.6% success rate I derived from the data of the previous seven postseasons, there projects to be one instance in the remaining three series in which the winner of a game one will not progress to win the series.  We will see in due time if this statistical projection holds, or if a statistical anomaly is in the works.

The Postseason: Game 1 (KC vs. OAK)

As you should already know, the 2014 MLB Playoffs will commence tonight with the first Wild Card game between the Oakland Athletics and the Kansas City Royals.  This playoff berth for the Kansas City Royals is the organizations first since they won the World Series back in 1985.  Honoring the beginning of the 2014 Postseason, I dedicate this post to analyzing and breaking down tonights game.  However, I would first like to compare the final records for the Athletics, Mariners, and Royals with the projections I made for each during the last stretch of the regular season.

Athletics-  Actual Final Record: 88-74   Projected Final Record: 88-74
Mariners-  Actual Final Record: 87-75   Projected Final Record: 87-75
Royals-  Actual Final Record: 89-73      Projected Final Record: 88-74

As you can see above, my predicted final records for both the A's and the Mariners were spot on, per the statistical projections I made in Updated AL Wild Card Race Scenarios.  The projection I made for the Royals only deviated from the actual record by one game, favoring the Royals.

Now, I will commence with my analysis for the first Wild Card playoff game between Oakland and Kansas City.  During the regular season, the A's and Royals met 7 times, in which the Royals were victorious 5 times.  This gives the Royals a 0.714 winning percentage against the Athletics for the 2014 season (71.4% chance they will win tonight).  Thus, the odds are heavily in favor for the Royals proceeding to the next round.

I will now delve further into the analysis of the game by examining tonights starting pitchers and  offenses for both teams.

Jon Lester- Overall: (16-11, 2.46)  Against the Royals: (3 Starts, 3-0, 2.61)

James Shields- Overall: (14-8, 3.21)  Against the Athletics: (2 Starts, 1-0, 3.21, Kansas City won both games)

KC Team Offense- Overall: (.263, 651 Runs, 4.02 Runs/Game)  Against OAK: (3.43 Runs/Game)

OAK Team Offense- Overall: (.244, 729 Runs, 4.5 Runs/Game)  Against KC: (3.71 Runs/Game, In the 2 Games Won 9.5 Runs/Game, In the 5 Games Lost 1.4 Runs/Game)

As you can discern from the statistics and analysis above, the Royals are favored in terms of overall win percentage between the two clubs, meanwhile the A's have the advantage in terms of their Starting Pitcher and Offense.  Keep in mind that the Athletics scored 19 of their 26 runs against the Royals during the 2 games in which they defeated the Royals.  Considering everything above, I am inclined to pick the Royals as the favorites for winning this game.  This prediction comes after quite the amount of deliberation, however the Royals have proven themselves to be the hotter team right now.

Updated AL Wild Card Race Scenarios

Records as of 09/22/14

Oakland Athletics:  85-70
Seattle Mariners:  83-72
Kansas City Royals:  84-70

Adjusted September Win Percentages as of 09/22/14

Oakland Athletics:  0.368
Seattle Mariners:  0.526
Kansas City Royals:  0.526

Remaining Number of Games as of 09/22/14

Oakland Athletics:  7
Seattle Mariners:  7
Kansas City Royals:  7

Projected Wins Remaining/ Final Records

Oakland Athletics:  2.576 -> 3 (88-74)
Seattle Mariners:  3.682 -> 4 (87-75)
Kansas City Royals:  3.682 -> 4 (88-74)

Current Projection:  At this rate, Oakland and Kansas City should receive Wild Card berths.  Meanwhile, the Mariners would not make the playoffs.

Power Rankings (Part IV): MLB Starters and Closers

Twitter: @Real_TPNB   Facebook:  The Power of Numbers in Baseball

At last, Adam and I have concluded the final piece for this power rankings series.  This final post incorporates the rankings and evaluations for both the Major League Starting Pitchers and Closing Pitchers.  I took the liberty of analyzing the closing pitchers, while Adam delved into the Starters.  If you have just the faintest bit of baseball acumen, you should be able to accurately guess who the best Starting Pitcher in the MLB is.  However, the same can not be said for the Closer role, for an unexpected name sits atop the list.

Alas, let me begin with my examination of the MLB Closing Pitchers for this 2014 campaign.  When one considers the prominent attributes of a closing pitcher, he or she would typically focus upon an overwhelming fastball.  Let us be honest, who does not like seeing a pitcher enter the game in the late innings lighting the radar gun up with triple-digits.  However, I want to emphasize that, when considering a closing pitcher, an inundating fastball should not be the primary aspect considered.  The most important criterion for a closing pitcher, at any level of baseball, is WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched).  In the late innings, when the game is up for grabs, you want to have a pitcher on the mound who does not enable many hitters to reach base.  With permitting less hitters to reach base, the pitcher will in turn reduce the chances of the opposing team scoring.  I understand that what I just iterated is a rudimentary concept, however it seems like many people have an obsession for relief pitchers being hard-throwers.  One of the most dominant closing pitchers, for the past couple of years, Koji Uehara, comfortably sits at 88 mph with his fastball, which is below the MLB average speed.  Thus, WHIP was one of the three statistics I used for my analysis.  Along with WHIP, I utilized the statistics of ERA and Saves within my ranking consideration.

Name	ERA	SV ▾	WHIP	ERA Rank	SV Rank	WHIP Rank	Total
Huston Street	1.2	33	0.822	1	7	3	11
Craig Kimbrel	1.8	37	0.92	6	3	8	17
Koji Uehara	1.4	26	0.78	2	14	2	18
Jonathan Papelbon	1.58	29	0.857	4	11	4	19
Greg Holland	1.84	38	1.02	7	1	14	22
Francisco Rodriguez	2.84	38	0.93	19	2	10	31
Zach Britton*	2.08	26	0.923	9	15	9	33
Sean Doolittle*	2.39	18	0.646	13	20	1	34
Jake McGee*	1.45	13	0.875	3	26	5	34
David Robertson	2.51	33	1.007	14	8	13	35
Santiago Casilla	1.62	10	0.902	5	28	6	39
Mark Melancon	2.28	22	0.935	11	18	11	40
Aroldis Chapman*	2.82	26	0.913	18	16	7	41
Glen Perkins*	2.58	31	1.108	15	9	17	41
Fernando Rodney	2.29	35	1.235	12	5	24	41
Rafael Soriano	2.59	29	1.048	16	12	15	43
Cody Allen	1.88	15	0.987	8	25	12	45
Kenley Jansen	2.86	34	1.132	20	6	19	45
Trevor Rosenthal	3.61	36	1.448	25	4	27	56
LaTroy Hawkins	2.79	18	1.143	17	21	21	59
Casey Janssen	3.24	19	1.11	23	19	18	60
Addison Reed	3.83	29	1.135	27	13	20	60
Steve Cishek	3.78	31	1.242	26	10	25	61
Joakim Soria	3.58	17	1.088	24	24	16	64
Jake Petricka	2.26	9	1.324	10	29	26	65
Hector Rondon	3.17	18	1.221	21	22	23	66
Chad Qualls	3.21	13	1.19	22	27	22	71
Joe Nathan	5.2	25	1.578	29	17	29	75
Jenrry Mejia	4.04	18	1.526	28	23	28	79

As you can see, the list above contains the statistics for the top 29 closers in the league.  The data was extracted at the beginning of last week, so there may be some current discrepancies, due to the games played that were played in the mean time.  However, let me now begin with the rankings:

Best ERA: Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels

Best WHIP: Sean Doolittle, Oakland Atheltics

Most Saves: Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals and Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers

Closer to Watch: Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics

Relief Pitcher Who Most Deserves to Close: Pat Neshek, St. Louis Cardinals

2014 Closing Pitcher Top 5 Rankings:

1) Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels-  Street, a former AL Rookie of the Year, has proved himself this season to once again be a dominant force in the closer role.  The trade from the Padres to the Angels has enabled Street to finally be exposed to a winning atmosphere.  Street is another pitcher whose velocity is not overwhelming, he frequents a 90ish mph sinker, however he still maintains a successful track record within this closer role.

2) Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves-  Now, if a dominant repertoire is what you want to see, then Kimbrel is the man you want to watch.  With a high-90s fastball and slider that is pretty much untouchable, Kimbrel has proven himself as one of the MLBs best closer in this ERA.  Like Huston Street, Kimbrel is also a former Rookie of the Year winner.  Kimbrel has been an All-Star every season that he has been in the closer role for.  Barring any injuries, I believe that Kimbrel will be able to pitch his way into Cooperstown, and find himself next to the games greatest known closer, Mariano Rivera.

3) Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox-  As I mentioned above, Uehara does not have overpowering stuff.  However, I will admit that he does have a splitter that is downright devastating for hitters.  Ueharas impeccable control is what has helped him establish himself as one of the games best closers.  Last season, during the Red Sox victorious season, Uehara posted a 0.565 WHIP.  This season, Uehara has showed no signs of fatigue, as he has been a bright spot for an underwhelming Red Sox squad and  he even earned his first All-Star Appearance.

4) Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies-  Despite playing for a struggling Phillies team, Papelbon has retained his reputation as one of the games top closers.  The five-time all star has been an asset that the Phillies have been wanting to move this year, however he has drawn little interest from teams thus far.  I personally believe the Tigers could use him at the back end of their bullpen, considering the struggles their closers have had.

5) Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals-  Since inheriting the closer role for the Royals back in 2012, Holland has been an absolute force coming out of the pen.  During his time as a closer, Holland has amassed 107 career saves.  I believe that Holland has helped turn around what used to be a failing Royals club and will continue to be a productive closer for many years to come.

Thus concludes the power rankings for the 2014 Closers.  Now we transition to Adam, who will provide the insight and rankings for 2014 Starters.

The Best Starters in Baseball

I’m going to do this in ascending order for two reasons; 1) the best two pitchers in baseball aren’t even a discussion, if you don’t know who they are then you’re clearly not being objective and need to face reality, your favorite player is not the best in the game, he’s just not, so get over it, and 2) because I’ll have more subjective reasoning the further I get in my choices. (If you think my omission of your “guy” is unfounded, cool, form an argument in the comments and I’ll address it in another piece)

Also, in these pieces it’s hard to address “the best” without context, so for this piece I’m addressing the starting pitchers as guys that you’d want to build a rotation around who have balanced consistent achievement with the likelihood of sustained success. Verlander (a bad couple years) and Wainwright (age, he’s 32) are absent and later in my explanation I list some younger guys that might be on this list with another good season or two.

On to the stats and general crap about this season....

If we sort exclusively by WAR this season the top 5 is as follows: Hernandez, Kluber, Kershaw & Lester (Tied), and Phil Hughes. So first off, no one thinks Hughes belongs on that list, even at #5, so we’re not using single season WAR to establish anything. Second, Kluber is 2^nd. I can’t let that stand and still respect myself. He’s having an exceptional year with a 2.46 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 1.08 WHIP, but with that said he’s 28, has a career ERA of 3.46 and last year was his first full season. He’ll likely be a serviceable starter, but it’s doubtful he maintains this type of success.

Sorting by ERA, Kluber ends up in 5^th. (Actual order: Kershaw, Sale, Hernandez, Cueto, Kluber) Getting closer to his value, but he’s still not in my top 5 for this season and going forward… Let’s be honest. In all likelihood you don’t even know who he is, even better, I’ve wasted the better part of two paragraphs explaining exactly why I’m omitting a guy who by most metrics is top 5 this year and you don’t even care.

Lastly, there are a few names that are absent, but are worth your attention in the future. These names being Garrett Richards, Jose Fernandez, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka, and Matt Harvey. All are young, have a limited sample (some due to injury), and will likely be top of the rotation guys for years to come (Archer being somewhat of an outlier in this instance).

And now on to the rankings…

1

      1)  Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Cy Young)

For his career he’s only finished two of seven seasons with a WAR under 5 and those seasons were when the Dodgers were horrible. For a quick assessment of WAR, a 5 win player is a superstar, he’s 26 and already had two seasons over 6, and he’s well on his way this year to matching or exceeding that value year. Career 2.51 ERA, he’s just ok, it’s not like he’s Sandy Koufax or anything… ohh, wait, Koufax was a career 2.76, so maybe, just maybe, Kershaw will be the best to ever wear Dodger blue and their only paying him like 30 million a year.

2)  Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (AL Cy Young)

We’ll call him 1b to Kershaw’s 1a.  Along with a career 3.09 ERA, this season makes his 9^th full year in the majors and he’s only 28 which could mean we’re in the middle of his prime and his years after 30 could be pretty mediocre, or that could mean we are witnessing the most durable pitcher not named Nolan Ryan. Like Kershaw, he’s predominantly an upper-five win player per WAR, his first couple seasons weren’t great, but he’s played his entire career in Seattle who has been pretty mediocre, even in their best seasons as of late. In any case, his best pitches are all off-speed and he still throws a mid-90’s heater. He’s a beast.

3) Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

He has a quirky delivery which adds to his deception but may ultimately be his downfall as usually is the case (see Ubaldo Jiminez). But for now, he’s a mid-low 90’s guy, throws three pitches well as shown by not having a major discrepancy in selection (51.4%, 29.6%, 19%: Fastball, Slider, Changeup last year). Career 2.76 ERA, this is his third full season and he’s dealing with a 2.08 ERA. 25 years old, he’s going to be good for a while.

4) David Price, Detroit Tigers

Allllmost 29 years old, this is his fifth full season, with his first being the worst by far. Since then, he’s been good posting a career 3.16 ERA. With the help of Evan Longoria, he made the Rays relevant in the AL East. As I outlined in my previous post, I’m happy to see him leave the division. In 2012 he posted a 2.56 ERA in the East… that’s a pretty big accomplishment in and of itself and he just keeps being consistent. A couple minor dings along the way, he’s going to get paid after next season. The only other scenario is that the Tigers splurge this offseason and sign Scherzer and Price to very similar, very lucrative deals and avoid their staggered departure altogether. If they fail to sign Scherzer, the likelihood that Price gets paid in 2016 probably goes up exponentially.

5)  Jon Lester, Oakland Athletics (Please come back, please)

30 years old makes him the oldest on the list. Shunning players like Cueto (always injured), Strasburg (Frequently injured), Zimmerman (Inconsistent), Verlander (I hate him, he’s dating Kate Upton), and any number of other players for varying reasons. My argument stands largely on his playoff performance and his longevity. He continues to produce, and aside from the last few games that’s been in the AL East. He’s faced the gnarliest of Yankees teams, the scrappiest of Rays teams, and for one entire season the animal we used to know as Chris Davis and the Orioles. This year he’s in a contract year and boasts a 5.5 WAR, 2.53 ERA, along with striking out a little more than one batter an inning. He’s going to continue to be good well into his 30’s because unlike guys like Aroldis Chapman who just “spits hot fiyahh” as the great rapper Dy-lan put it, Lester paints corners, works through the jams, and makes it work for him. He survived the onslaught in Boston, I’m sure he has an occasional beer and fried chicken thigh (I’m a leg man personally), but he’s resilient. Maybe next year there will be no reason to put him in here, but for now, he’s a solid #5 in a league with a lot of young talent, a lot of injuries, and even more one and done superstars.