The Major League Draft (Part 2): The Truth about the Road to the Show

Continuing upon my last post, I wish to conclude my statistical analysis of the Major League Baseball Entry Level Draft.  In this blog, I am going to continue with my analytical comparison between the players selected from college and the players selected from high school.  However, this time, I am going to compare the average number of years it takes a drafted player to make their major league debut, considering both classes of players.  I will then move on to a comparison between the percentages of players from each class who either failed to debut or have not yet debuted as of June 9th, 2014.

For the following statistical analysis performed, my data set was comprised of the first round picks from 2000-2010.  It does not include the supplemental first round picks.

	College	High School
Average Number of Years until debut	2.33	3.91
Percentage of Players without debut	22.49%	40.13%

Much can be derived from the preceding statistics.  As one can see, similarly to my conclusions from "The Major League Draft (Part 1)", the players who were drafted out of college programs displayed better figures.  The college drafted players were able to reach the Major League level in roughly 1.5 years faster than the high school drafted players.  This may have some correlation to the fact that the college players are older and have had more time to develop.  Also, generally, the level of competition that the college players are exposed to is much greater than what the high school players see.  If you are going into the draft, looking for a prospect that can climb the ranks quickly, I would recommend leaning towards a college player.  Not only did the college players prove to progress quicker, but they also displayed a greater debut efficiency.  Through this statement, I mean that a greater percentage of college drafted players were able to make their Major League debut in comparison to the same percentage for the high school drafted players.  The percentage of players from high school who did not make their debut is nearly twice as much as that same percentage for the players from college.

Considering all of the analyses I have performed regarding the Major League Baseball draft, I would have to maintain my conjecture that the college level players are the safer picks.  All of the statistics I incorporated, in both this post and the previous post, advocate this belief as well.  Lastly, I would just like to reiterate my belief that there are exceptions to this statement.

The Major League Draft

In the spirit of the recently passed 2014 Major League Baseball entry draft, I would like to dedicate this next post to discussing the value of draft picks.  No matter what, there will always be a sense of uncertainty when drafting a player.  There is no possible way to look into the future and determine what type of professional career a young man will have.  Will he only linger within the minor league levels, or might he become a consummate professional at the Major league level.  You can really only make predictions.  There will always be busts, just like there will always be sleepers.

A lot of controversy in the draft stems from deciding between college or high school players.  Maturity and the developmental ceiling of player are always questions when considering a player.  Many people, more than likely including some major league scouts, believe that college players are the safer picks. Thus, I dedicate this blog to the statistical evaluation of MLB players that were drafted out of high school in comparison to those who were drafted from a collegiate program.

To perform these calculations I will consider the first-round picks that have major league experience and were drafted between 2004 and 2006.  I believe that this is a good sample of years because these drafts happened long enough ago, so that all the players have had ample enough time to get through the minor league system. Regarding the position players, I will use batting average and on-base percentage to compare the two classes of position players.  For the comparison of the pitchers, I will use the statistics of earned run average and walks + hits per innings pitched (WHIP).

	High School	College
ERA	4.45	4.26
WHIP	1.45	1.38
BA	0.257	0.260
OBP	0.322	0.325

Looking at the above statistical averages, there is not too much discrepancy between the players drafted from college and the players drafted from high school.  However, in each category, the college players did rank better than the high school players.

I want to delve further into this statistical comparison between these two categories of players.  This time, in terms of the position players, I will compare the average number of games played and average number of at-bats.  Then for the pitchers, I will the use the average number of games played and the average number of innings pitched to draw my comparisons.

	High School	College
Games (H)	470.8	627.1
At-Bats	1605.8	2259.3
Games (P)	74.7	147.5
Inn. Pitched	366.0	590.6

Looking at the statistical averages above, the players that were drafted out of college put up significantly greater numbers in all of the categories.  This leads me to draw the conclusion that the players from college remain on the MLB rosters for longer durations during their careers and receive more playing time than the high school drafted players.

There is one last aspect for comparison of which I would like to address.  This will be the comparison of league-recognized achievements, such as MVP awards, Cy Young awards, all-star team members, etc...  My comparisons will once again be done considering the 1st round picks from the 2004-2006 draft classes.

	High School	College
MVPs	1	2
Cy Young Award Pitchers	1	3
All-Stars	6	12
Silver Sluggers	4	5
Gold Gloves	2	5

*Note that for the above statistics, players were only counted in a category once, even if they won the award more than once.*

As one can see, the College drafted players once again display the better statistics in all of the aspects being considered.

With the evaluation of the three sets of statistical comparisons above, I myself, when going into the draft, would lean towards picking more players from college.  Statistically speaking, the players drafted out of college are more productive and tend to have longer careers at the Major League level. However, I do acknowledge that there have been many players with laudable careers that were drafted out of high school (i.e. Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Alex Rodriguez, and several others).  I am just saying that the safer pick tends to be a college player rather than a high school player.

Many high school level players that are drafted, unless taken in a high round, do not sign and choose to pursue collegiate careers.  This gives them both a chance to augment their draft stock and obtain a college education.  The concept of high school players not signing makes me wonder if high school players should even be drafted.  Should there be restrictions like there are for the NFL and NBA drafts, in which a player must attend college for a certain number of years?  I personally am in favor of players having to go to college, but that is just my opinion.