Showing posts with label Mark McGuire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark McGuire. Show all posts

Thursday, August 14, 2014

The Fading Popularity of Baseball (By: A. Littlefield)

It’s an often debated subject among talking heads, especially in the dog days of summer leading up to the beginning of the NFL preseason schedule. You may have pondered, or even created a list, of the things that irritate you in baseball; proof it still has real estate in many fans’ hearts. Over the years we’ve witnessed scandal in the form of steroids, absence in the form of lock out, and boredom in the form of the ever expanding length of the game. Yet, tickets still sell, salaries still rise, and Bud Selig still does… whatever it is he does.

Steroids tarnished the national past time to many, but why? We sat idly by as craniums expanded and home runs grew in length with little complaint aside from the occasional qualm related to the bravado of one of our titans. Few seasons have been as exciting as the McGuire and Sosa showdown to break Maris’ record, and honestly, none since. I remember it well, the special images in every magazine from Time to Sports Illustrated, the daily counts and updates, and all this occurred in the initial uprising of the 24-hour news cycle. And yet, the one thing that was drawing people to the game was fueled by possibly the greatest flaw ever to be “uncovered” in a major professional sport. We blamed greed, we were fraught with concern over the perception among young, impressionable minds, and we ignored how much we loved it.

Since Selig “cleaned up” the game we’ve watched homerun totals drop, the occasional aberration still occurs (see Cabrera/Davis last year), but it’s not nearly the same because we’ve become skeptics. We doubt that there is natural ability behind the improbable and after every awe-inspiring stat line there is someone raising the question of the ever looming presence of performance enhancing drugs.

Before the recent past we admired the arrogance of our greats, namely Alex Rodriguez. The idol, a natural talent, but clearly just as flawed as those who came before him which further engrained doubt in an otherwise contented psyche of ignorance. Barry Bonds, who crushed the record we watched broken by McGuire, but will be forever overshadowed by his reputed anger and abuse of teammates and staff.

Among this dark era, the 24 hour news cycle emerged and created the collective ADD we have developed. We want highlights, we want to watch the incredible every second of every game, and no sport is as ineffective at delivering this satisfaction as baseball. Three hour games, built on a foundation of walk-up music, player rituals, and ever more inhibiting rules. Part of the excitement is angry managers, rivalry fueled shenanigans leading to occasional brawls, and brash behavior by immaturity. We’ve lost this in the regulatory reform brought on by the fear that these behaviors damage the fragile “brand” that is the MLB. No one considers that the casual fan loves to see confrontation, or that it breaks up the monotony we’ve come to expect.

Beyond this, you have inflated ticket prices diminishing access to many fans. For the casual, and many avid fans, TV broadcasts are almost entirely intolerable and the live experience is now reserved for the fortunate few. Boston has the highest average ticket price and unless you plan to buy a scalped ticket immediately before the game you’ll be forced to pay a premium for often sub-par seating behind a pillar, high up and away from the game action, or standing room only. For the average family it’s not worth the hassle and the next generation of baseball fan is missing the joy of baseball. This in turn has led to shrinking tee ball, farm, and little league numbers because kids don’t have the patience to watch baseball or understand the nostalgia the older fan feels towards this beautiful game. We can’t rightly expect owners to operate teams as non-profit organizations but with the cost of concessions rising at the same rate as tickets you would think there was room to make the product more accessible.

From my perspective, baseball is still a beautiful game. Nuanced by the application of sabermetrics to scouting, evolved by the new breed of manager that obsesses over such things, we’ve witnessed a bloom in competitive equality. We get to see highlights of almost every game and watch pennant races unfold in real time and still, we have degraded our allegiances in the process, in turn undermining the popularity of the game over the player.

My Solutions to these problems:
We can only hope that the next commissioner can revitalize the aspects of the game that bring the passion of the fan back to the game. If I was sitting in the commissioner’s seat my first act would be to impose a hard cap similar to the other major sports with a luxury tax system that splits the proceeds equally among the other teams to either split among their players or spend in addition to the cap, thus creating more competitive equality.

To increase the availability of tickets to a wider audience I would impose a ticket lottery system so that face value tickets are available to more fans. A lot of the large market teams sell out frequently, or every game and tickets are then only available on the secondary market for much higher prices. In this system a certain percentage of every game’s tickets will be reserved for this process so that “sold out” games don’t increase the secondary market prices as much and purchasing tickets is less about the inflated prices on the secondary market (sorry StubHub). Every time you successfully buy tickets you can enter the lottery again but priority will be given to people who haven’t previously bought tickets, thus, exposing a larger audience to the game.

The one problem I don’t see a clear cut solution for is game length; it’s hard to impose limitations without impeding the mental aspect of the game for different players. Some pitchers gain their advantage by pitching quickly and speeding up the adjustment for a batter, and inversely the batter taking a longer period to step into the box throwing off a pitchers game flow. While it seems obvious that a timer on each of these respective processes would solve it, how do you keep both players in check without favoring one or the other in the process? With the pitcher, being forced to throw within 5 seconds of receiving the ball from the catcher means that they will benefit from a distinct rhythm in their game, whereas a batter would need to be back in the box within 3 seconds to allow the pitcher time to get the pitch off inhibiting the ability to adjust gloves or reapply pine tar.

As of 48 games into the season, games were averaging 3 hours and 5 minutes up from 2 hours and 48 minutes last year. The rules state a pitcher, when the bases are unoccupied, must deliver the ball within 12 seconds or the umpire is to issue a ball. To solve this problem in an equitable fashion I believe imposing a limit on time outs called by a batter, and giving the batter 4 seconds from the time a pitcher steps on the rubber to be in the box ready to receive the pitch. Also, a pitcher would be limited to 3 pick off throws per batter so after every hit or out it resets, which is actually beneficial because statistics have shown that when a pitcher doesn’t throw over to check a runner the catcher is significantly more likely to successfully throw him out. After that, a limitation placed on time between innings would be slightly more lenient but keep games to a reasonable pace. If you averaged 3 minutes between half innings, and 18 seconds per each pitch (based on an average of 300 pitches a game) you would achieve a game time of 2 hours and 21 minutes. This would effectively reduce games from their current time by approximately 25%, obviously things such as the 7th inning stretch, special ceremonies, and the mascot races held at some parks would expand this marginally, but for many parents bringing children that half hour makes the difference between one more trip to the bathroom, another hotdog, and a total tantrum and peaceful uninterrupted bliss (as if).

Lastly, Steroids. Yes, Steroids. It’s time for harsh penalties. From now on, you get caught, you’re gone for a full season, and a second test is a lifetime ban. It’s time to stop giving second chances with no serious consequence for something that hurts competitive equality so much. They make it a clear cut issue, list the substances, and yet, players still do it. In stark contrast, for the “Steroid Era” we need to allow them in the hall of fame because they created hype when there was none. Baseball owes almost as much to steroids in the 90’s as they do to Jackie Robinson for breaking the color barrier. Briefly, to explain this comparison (Breaking the color barrier is way beyond steroids, but similar), without Robinson we would have missed many of the most exciting players in baseball history entirely. Young, black athletes would have been discouraged from pursuing a career in baseball and thus, we would have missed all of the great moments their presence created.  Now, back to steroids. For kids hitting their playing age in the mid-late 90’s, nothing was cooler than watching those juggernauts hit 400 foot shots. McGuire and Sosa was a season for the ages. There hasn’t been a season since that was as exciting as that, and in all likelihood there will never be. I had the posters torn from every magazine on my wall highlighting the home run counts and all I wanted was to smash a baseball the way they did. Sosa was reserved, could barely speak any English, but clearly worked harder than anyone and hustled the way Pete Rose did. McGuire was composed, massive, and looked like the American dream in a Cardinals uniform. Between the two of them we had everything to bring fans from every walk of life into the moment. But back to the topic at hand, from now on, positive tests result in 162 game bans and then a lifetime ban, and the burden of proof for appeals falls entirely on the player. As substances evolve we can reconsider the issue but for now with the dangers associated with PEDs and the single significant point that they are illegal in the United States, there is no other way to approach it. Kids should not have their role models using these substances, as I did in the 90’s.

Baseball is beautiful. Flawed, eccentric, and nuanced, it is a game of finesse and power. With such wonderful storylines at the end of each season and the passion of cities behind their teams as they fight to become the kings of the October Classic, it’s hard to ignore the allure of the ballpark. Changes need to be made for the sake of inclusivity, competitive balance, and sustainability. Hopefully the next commissioner, Rob Manfred, is up to the task, but for now we are stuck pondering the possibilities and for the love of all things holy thank god it wasn’t Tom Werner chosen to succeed Bud Selig.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Just Some of the G.O.A.T. (By: M. Lessard)

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Prior to me highlighting some of the greatest individual offensive performances in baseball history, I would like to address a minor alteration to my statistic of IOR or Individual Offensive Rating.  The concept of the statistic will remain the same (for further explication of the statistic, please refer to The Inaugural Post), this being, a statistic in order to measure the individual offensive performances of players.  I am making this amendment, to address the issue of the statistics weight.  Seeing as IOR incorporates all individual components of a players offensive game, I desired to make this adjustment in order to make a more uniform statistic.  With the original equation, the denominator utilized was At-Bats and as a result, the ratings seemed to be rather inflated to me.  Thus, I am switching the denominator to Plate-Appearances.  The new equation is as follows:

IOR= (H+BB+HR+SB) / (PA)

*Note that BBs include IBB and HBP as well*

With this alteration being explained, I will now move on to recognizing some of the greatest individual offensive performances of all-time, per IOR values.  Note that the proceeding highlights are neither in any specific order, nor are they a ranking of any sort.  Also, some of the following players have been called out in years past due to their affinity for performance enhancing drugs.  However, despite the acknowledgement of the unfair advantages these players had, the achievements that these players earned are still truly incredible.  I, like many others, even if they may not admit it, have a love-hate relationship for that performance-enhancing age.  Do not get me wrong, I definitely frown upon and do not condone the use of these drugs, especially in order to gain an unfair advantage.  However, I ask you, what was more exciting to watch, the '99 Home Run Derby where Mark McGwire and his regime of swollen slashers were launching baseballs onto the Mass Pike, or this past '14 Home Run Derby, where Todd Frazier weaseled his way to the finals by hitting one measly home run in the semi-final round?

Speaking of Mark McGwire, he seems to be a solid hitter to begin with.  It was blatant that McGwire used copious amounts of performance enhancing drugs during his career, for when he entered the league he was relatively lean, but by the time he reached his prime, McGwire was the size of your run-of-the-mill Redwood Tree.  During his statistically best season in '98, McGwire narrowly edged Sammy Sosa for the MLB HR title, amassing an overwhelming 70 HRs.  For his '98 campaign, McGwire managed to accumulate an IOR of 0.615.  Despite the incredible year that Sosa had in '98 and winning the MVP, his best year, in terms of IOR, came later on in '01, when he achieved an IOR of 0.579.

Despite debatably being the most notorious juice-head in the history of the MLB, Barry Bonds had power that very few could and may ever parallel.  Bonds was the one to break both the single-season and career home run records, set by McGwire and Aaron, respectively.  During his '04 season with the San Francisco Giants, Bonds earned probably the highest IOR in the history of the game, that rating being 0.887.

Next, I move on to probably the most famous pitcher-converted-to-hitter of all time and the speculated source for the Boston Red Sox 86 year, World Series drought, Babe Ruth.  The Bambino slugged his way off of the mound and into Cooperstown during his prolific career.  In 1920, the Sultan of Swat recorded a career best IOR of 0.638.  This IOR would probably be much greater too, however, per Baseball-Reference.com, IBB were not recorded during this time.

Other Notable Player Career Best IOR:

Hank Aaron (1971)- 0.531
Pete Rose (1969)- 0.482
Roberto Clemente (1969)- 0.479
Ken Griffey Jr. (1994)- 0.544
Tony Gwynn (1987)- 0.576
Chipper Jones (1999)- 0.566
Ted Williams (1957)- 0.654

Lastly, I just want to calculate and provide the top IORs from this 2014 MLB season thus far.  This will help illuminate the greatness of the aforementioned historic baseball icons and provide insight for who might transcend to the HOF ranks.  The top 10 IORs in the MLB for this 2014 season are as follows:

1)  Giancarlo Stanton- 0.502
2)  Troy Tulowitzki- 0.501
3)  Andrew McCutchen- 0.495
4)  Jose Bautista- 0.487
5)  Victor Martinez- 0.479
6)  Jose Altuve- 0.473
7)  Paul Goldschmidt- 0.472
8)  Mike Trout- 0.465
9)  Robinson Cano- 0.465
10)  Jose Abreu- 0.462