Showing posts with label Brock Holt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brock Holt. Show all posts

Saturday, August 30, 2014

5 Players to Watch in 2015

5 Players to Watch in 2015
I’ve decided to do some analysis on a few guys that I’ve watched play a fair amount and seem to be trending upward in terms of development. To make the list these players needed to fit a couple of criteria, make very little money (<5 mil) and be under the age of 27. It’s widely accepted that a player’s peak occurs in their late 20’s and into their early 30’s so these players will effectively be just reaching their respective peaks next year. I’m not considering anyone that’s already made a big splash in the media such as Oscar Taveras, Gregory Polanco, or Javier Baez… but you should check them out just the same. These are players some know of and some don’t, probably the most popular on this list is Brock Holt who has had a great season and since he makes the league minimum I think he deserves a mention.

Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox, Centerfield (Age: 25, Salary: $500,000)

Per FanGraphs, he’s currently slashing .310/.377/.413 and has 60 runs, 33 RBI, and 13 SB. As I’m writing this he’s 2 for 3 with a run scored and a stolen base against Max Scherzer. He’s a great leadoff hitter given his speed and consistency at the plate. Some might say he’d literally run through a wall for his teammates, but he wasn’t very successful. This is his first full year in the big leagues so it’s still a limited sample size at a position that has a pretty large amount of turn over year to year.

Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies, Relief Pitcher (Age: 23, Salary: $500,000

Currently he’s 3-1 in 33.2 innings pitched. He regularly hits triple digits on the radar gun and his slider is absolute filth. 1.34 ERA and 12.83 K/9 make him a great successor to Jonathan Papelbon who probably should have been trade bait for other young talent with Giles clearly ready to take the throne. Outside of Philadelphia, no one knows this name, but they should. As long as the Phillies can avoid the temptation to make him a starter he looks poised to be the back end guy they need. Similar approach to Craig Kimbrel, let’s just hope he doesn’t go all Daniel Bard and fight to become a starter only to be forgotten a couple years later.

Jorge Soler, Chicago Cubs, Rightfield (Age: 22, Salary: 9 years, $30 million)

So, he’s the first guy on my list who isn’t on a minimum deal. He defected in 2011 and just got called up this past week. So far he’s 8 for 16 with three bombs, three runs, and seven RBI. He’s already breaking out in a big way and from my perspective looks like he’ll be a candidate to hold out for a bigger deal in about year three of his colossally small contract. Right now the Cubs are young, powerful, and athletic. Give them three good top of the rotation guys, a reasonably consistent Rondon on the back end of their bullpen and we might be talking title contenders. Soler had a multi-homerun game Friday night just to further define his arrival to the bigs, pay attention, the lovable losers are about to turn things around.

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees, Relief Pitcher (Age: 26, Salary: $500,000)

He’s been around, but in his time he’s posted a 2.21 ERA and a 13.45 K/9 ratio. This year he has five wins, 13.38 K/9, and a 1.50 ERA in 78 innings. He’s the logical next choice to close games with David Robertson currently filling that role and posting a 2.98 ERA and 13.50 K/9. Betances has, like Giles, has broken triple digits with his fastball but regularly rests in the 94-96 range. He’s another young player with an great opportunity to become a big time player, especially while playing in New York.

Brock Holt, Boston Red Sox, Utility (Age: 26, Salary: $500,000)


He’s hitting .292, he’s come up in a few of our other posts, and by all measures he can play any position. I’m pretty sure he’s appeared everywhere but on the hill or behind the dish defensively so he’s got value. He has ten steals, 65 runs, and 27 RBI which is respectable on a team that’s going nowhere fast this year. I’m not expecting he remains on this team because all signs point to a very spirited pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton this off season. In any case, he’s worth watching wherever he goes. It’s a shame that a scrappy player that has worked his way up over the last 4+ seasons to play in Boston will likely be in another uniform next year.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Young Guns

Having talented youth in an organization can be a very invaluable asset.  Being able to have a young, productive player in your line-up for an extended period of time can be crucial to the success of your team.  If this player is, for the lack of a better phrase, "a spark plug to your line-up", he may be even more significant than you know.  Thus, I dedicate this next post to evaluating the 2014, offensive rookie class.

For my evaluation, I will only consider rookies with at least 60 at-bats, in order to maintain a decent sized data set.  Within the statistical comparisons provided, I will incorporate my statistics which I created and discussed in "The Inaugural Post".  These statistics being, the Individual Offensive Rating (IOR), Offensive Team Contribution Rating (OTCR), and the IOR/OTCR ratio.  The players are ranked according to the IOR/OTCR ratio, going in descending order.

Player
H
HR
RBI
SB
BB
IOR
OTCR
IOR/OTCR
Hamilton, B.
52
2
14
24
11
0.437
0.387
1.129

D'arnaud, T.
23
3
9
1
16
0.367
0.349
1.052

Jones, J.
36
0
5
7
7
0.400
0.382
1.047

Bogaerts, X.
66
5
17
2
26
0.451
0.439
1.029

Wong, K
34
1
15
8
10
0.412
0.429
0.961

Pinto, J.
30
7
16
0
20
0.430
0.456
0.941

Almonte, A.

21
1
8
3
6
0.302
0.323
0.933

Owings, C.
55
5
18
6
12
0.382
0.412
0.928

Medica, T.
16
3
7
0
4
0.377
0.423
0.892

Semien, M.
36
3
18
3
16
0.352
0.396
0.887

Holt, B.
42
1
13
3
9
0.433
0.496
0.873

Bradley Jr., J.
38
1
21
4
19
0.354
0.408
0.870

Springer, G.
48
12
36
1
22
0.473
0.553
0.855

Solarte, Y.
60
6
28
0
23
0.438
0.514
0.851

Castellanos, N.
52
5
21
1
12
0.368
0.435
0.845

Schoop, J.
43
5
19
0
7
0.316
0.377
0.837

Abreu, J.
55
19
50
0
13
0.466
0.578
0.806

Choice, M.
30
6
24
1
16
0.351
0.444
0.790

Flores, W.
15
1
7
0
3
0.317
0.403
0.786

Olt, M.
21
9
24
0
14
0.329
0.426
0.772

Cron, C.
28
3
15
0
3
0.347
0.454
0.764

Odor, R.
24
2
14
0
2
0.377
0.567
0.665

  

To begin my analysis of this data, I first would like to discredit the players who have both very low OTCR and IOR ratings.  By low, I mean that both of these two values for the player are below .400.  I do this because they might have high IOR/OTCR ratio rating because they were able to muster up a diminutive IOR that just happens to be greater than their even lower OTCR. These players who I am taking out of consideration have their names highlighted in yellow.

Billy Hamilton, the Cincinnati Reds outfielder, sits atop the list of eligible players.  His overwhelming 1.129 IOR/OTCR rating insinuates that he is an individual offensive generator.  Hamilton has the capability of getting his teams offense started.  Another highly rated player, who I believe would be great to build a team around, is Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox.

However, just because a player has a lower IOR/OTCR ratio does not mean that they are a lesser player.  For example, look at the players George Springer and Jose Abreu.  I believe that both of these players are phenomenal young stars.  I do believe that they both will produce better IOR/OTCR ratings by the conclusion of the season.  Especially, George Springer because he has very good speed on the base paths, as can be seen from his minor league stolen base statistics.  Once he starts swiping bases like I know he can, his IOR/OTCR ratio will increase significantly, pushing him to perennial all-star levels.  Abreu, on the other hand, has a problem that stems from his lack of walks.  Through 52 games played, he only has 13 walks.  His walk per game ratio is 1:4, which translates to .25 walks per game.  Like I was saying, both Abreu and Springer are very talented and promising young players, but at this moment they are performing like great complimentary players.  They both do have phenomenal IOR and OTCR ratings, which favor well for them.

For example, take again into consideration Jose Abreu.  A great player, who as of right now seems to be a really good complimentary player in the White Sox line-up.  If he was the "spark plug" of this line-up and you removed him from the line-up for an extended period of time, you would expect the White Sox to have a worse winning percentage than when he was in the line-up.  Jose Abreu has missed a total of 14 games this season and the record of the White Sox during that span is 8-6, which totals to a win percentage of 57%.  As of today, the White Sox have an overall record of 33-33, meaning that with Abreu in the line-up their record is 25-27.  This record translates to a winning percentage of 48%.

Neither Billy Hamilton, nor Xander Bogaerts have missed enough games this season yet, for me to make a fair assessment of win percentage with and without them in the line-up.  However, I do wish to make an assessment of win percentage with and without a offensive instigator in the line-up.  If you can recall (or even just scroll down to my first post), looking at the 2013 IOR/OTCR ratios, Jacoby Ellsbury ranked 8th with a 1.104.  Everyone knows that the Red Sox won the World Series in 2013 and had one of the most potent offenses in the league.  During the offseason, as you should already know, Ellsbury signed a deal with the New York Yankees, thus ending his career with the Red Sox.  After the removal of Ellsbury from the Red Sox line-up, meaning during this 2014 season, the Red Sox began to struggle significantly.  They currently are 29-36, with an underwhelming winning percentage of .446.  The Red Sox have only scored 254 runs this season, ranking the 2nd worst in the AL this season.  Through this day last season, 06/12/13, the Red Sox had a record of 41-26, with a winning percentage of .612.  Also, the Red Sox by this day last year had scored 351 runs, ranking not only the best in the AL, but also in the entire MLB.  I realize that the Red Sox have had numerous injuries this year and that their players are not quite performing to their best levels, but after comparing these numbers, I would have to conclude that Jacoby Ellsbury might have had a significant impact within the Red Sox line-up.  The Red Sox possibly should have put resigning Ellsbury as one of their more important offseason priorities.

*NOTE THAT ALL STATISTICS AND DATA, WITH THE EXCLUSION OF IOR AND OTCR, ARE NOT MY OWN AND I AM NOT CLAIMING THEM TO BE.  THEY ARE THE PROPERTY OF MLB.COM*